Meteorology Monday (6-2-25): 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
To start, this year, there is a 60 percent chance for above normal activity, with a 30% chance for near normal activity, and the remaining 10 percent is for a below normal season. These numbers may not be high, but they do indicate that a slightly more active than normal season is possible and will need to be closely monitored before we head into peak season.
Last year, NOAA forecasted a 90% chance for above normal activity by the time we got our second outlook, and that's exactly what happened: 18 named storms, 11 of which were hurricanes, and 5 were major.
The forecast not only played out accurately, but we managed to do so even with an unusually quiet mid-season when activity typically peaks. If you remember, we had major storms very early in the season, and well into the late season as well.
This year, our numbers only lean above average, but the chance for more activity is certainly present. This is based on factors such as warmer ocean temperatures, a forecasted ENSO neutral year, or a year without El Nino or La Nina, weaker forecasted wind changes with height, and a more active West African Monsoon forecasted, which is known to be a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes
NOAA releases an outlook at the start of the season, and a second outlook before peak season, so make sure to keep an eye out for updates as the season ramps up. For more information, you can read about the full outlook and how NOAA is preparing for the season on their website here.
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