News Analysis: Turkish experts warn of global energy turmoil as Iran-Israel tensions escalate

The Star

18-06-2025

ISTANBUL, June 18 (Xinhua) -- As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, Turkish experts are raising alarm over the conflict's potential ripple effects on global energy supplies and vital trade routes. They warn that prolonged instability could trigger soaring oil prices and destabilize energy-dependent economies worldwide, with Türkiye among the most vulnerable.
Necdet Pamir, an energy policy expert and academic at Istanbul Topkapi University, emphasized that whether a country is an importer or an exporter, an uncontrollable surge in oil prices would strain all sectors and place immense pressure on the global economy.
He pointed out that Brent crude oil, which was trading at around 66 U.S. dollars per barrel before the hostilities, has now climbed to more than 72 dollars -- a sharp rise with wide-reaching consequences.
"This trend is particularly alarming for oil-importing countries like Türkiye," Pamir told Xinhua. "In fact, nearly all European nations, as well as many in Asia, are heavily dependent on imported oil, so the impact will be global."
Soaring oil prices have already translated into rising fuel costs domestically, the expert noted. Over the past week, Türkiye raised gasoline prices twice and diesel prices three times, underscoring the inflationary impact on consumers.
Türkiye's vulnerability is compounded by its near-total dependence on foreign natural gas. The country sources 98 percent of its gas from Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan through five major pipelines.
"We have zero control over oil prices and no say in how gas prices are determined," Pamir remarked. "We're watching like spectators at a ping-pong match -- looking one way, then the other, with no ability to intervene."
On Wednesday, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said the Iran-Israel conflict has already driven up oil prices, warning that the upward trend could soon extend to natural gas.
"Global oil prices are rising to levels that can impact all countries, and in parallel, we may see a global increase in natural gas prices too," Bayraktar said before a party meeting in Ankara. "Fortunately, we are currently in the summer season, when gas consumption is relatively low. I hope the situation de-escalates and returns to normal soon."
Baris Doster, an international relations expert at Istanbul-based Marmara University, noted that the potential consequences of an expanded war stretch far beyond the Middle East.
"Iran is critical not only for its geopolitical location and strategic importance but also for its vast oil and natural gas reserves," Doster told Xinhua. He warned that any disruption to crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows from the Gulf -- especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly one-fifth of globally traded oil -- could rattle international markets and push prices even higher.
Both experts cautioned that a further escalation could push Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
"That would mean blocking the passage of 21 million barrels of oil per day," Pamir explained. "Given that global production is around 100 million barrels daily, removing 21 million from the market would be a massive shock."
According to Pamir, in such a scenario, keeping oil prices even at 100 dollars per barrel would be nearly impossible, placing a tremendous burden on the energy import bills of dependent countries.