Tariffs, Russia & the cost of autonomy: India must absorb pressure without losing its strategic balance

Time of India

a day ago

For nearly a decade, Manash Pratim Gohain has been a common face in various campuses of universities and colleges in Delhi. He can be easily spotted chatting with students, engaging with teachers over unlimited cups of tea and digging information to yield stories on city's schools, colleges and government's policies on education. He is assistant editor with The Times of India, Delhi. LESS ... MORE
The recent imposition of a 25% tariff on select Indian exports by the United States — alongside threats of further penalties — signals a sharp turn in the tenor of India-US economic engagement. While framed as a routine trade enforcement action, the timing and broader context point unmistakably to a deeper message: Washington is uneasy with India's increasing strategic assertiveness, particularly its continued oil trade with Russia.
Over the past two years, India has significantly ramped up its crude imports from Russia, capitalising on discounted prices amid Western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict. Russia is now India's top energy supplier. This has allowed India to cushion inflation, manage its current account, and maintain steady energy access. Yet, it has also drawn criticism from the West, which sees India's balancing act as diplomatically inconvenient, if not morally ambiguous.
From Delhi's perspective, the policy is clear: national interest guides foreign policy, and strategic autonomy is non-negotiable. India has made it equally clear — at forums like the G20 and BRICS — that it will not be a passive recipient of geopolitical dictates. Whether it is importing Russian oil, opposing Western digital trade rules, or setting its own data governance norms, India is defining its own trajectory.
This posture, while respected in principle by the US, is increasingly coming under strain in practice. The 25% tariff — potentially targeting sectors like steel, engineering goods, or chemicals — is not just about market access. It's a nudge, perhaps even a warning, that economic tools will be used when political alignment wavers.
To be sure, the India-US partnership remains robust on many fronts: defence collaboration, Indo-Pacific cooperation, and critical tech initiatives like iCET are growing pillars of trust. But the tariff action highlights a recurring tension in India's foreign policy — how to deepen partnerships without compromising sovereignty.
Politically, the Modi government is unlikely to back down. If anything, this development will be used to reinforce a familiar narrative: that India's rise comes with costs, and resistance from global powers is evidence of its growing clout. It also offers an opportunity to double down on domestic manufacturing, push for trade diversification, and strengthen south-south cooperation.
The challenge, however, is real. Export sectors could be hit. Trade negotiations may stall. Investor confidence could waver if the friction escalates. But India's likely response will be measured — assertive but not confrontational, using diplomacy, WTO channels, and backroom talks to defuse tensions while preserving space for independent policy-making.
For the US too, this is a moment to recalibrate. Using punitive tariffs against a strategic partner like India may offer short-term leverage but could erode long-term goodwill. Washington must reconcile its security interests with its economic assertiveness — and recognise that India's global rise will not always align with American preferences.
Strategic partnerships in a multipolar world are not built on perfect agreement. They rest on managing differences with maturity. As India navigates this episode, the real test is whether it can absorb pressure without overreacting — and whether both nations can sustain a partnership built not on dependency, but on mutual respect.
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