A week into the fragile Israel-Iran peace agreement, here's what we still don't know - Region
It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and the globe on edge.
The fragile peace, brokered by the U.S. the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled.
How badly Iran's nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed U.S.-Iran peace talks are up in the air. Whether U.S. President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.
Here is a look at what we still don't know:
How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back
Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were 'obliterated.' His defence secretary said they were 'destroyed.'
A preliminary report issued by the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS' 'Face the Nation' on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with 'capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.' But, he added, 'some is still standing' and that because capabilities remain, 'if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.' He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.
What future US-Iran relations might look like
After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a 'great trading nation' if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.
The talk of harmony didn't last long.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a 'slap to America's face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran 'got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.
White House officials say the U.S. and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.
It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended, especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. 'We may sign an agreement,' he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, 'I don't think it's that necessary.'
What role will Iran's supreme leader play
Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in U.S.-Iran relations and the Islamic Republic's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that the ayatollah does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.
Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.
He entrenched the system of rule by the 'mullahs,' or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran's military and internal politics.
How Iran might strike back
Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a U.S. base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The U.S. was forewarned, and the salvos were easily fended off.
Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted U.S. banks, defence contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is urging organisations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.
Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
It remains a fragile peace.
Immediately following the U.S. strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further U.S. offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorised to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.
But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel would strike again 'if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.'
The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks 'did nothing significant' to Iran's nuclear facilities.
Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. 'The last thing they're thinking about right now is enriched uranium,' Trump said.
Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn't restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, or some other organisation "that we respect, including ourselves.'
Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza
The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.
As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the U.S. military out of foreign conflicts.
But after helping Israel with U.S. strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and who were not authorised to comment publicly.
On Friday, Trump told reporters, 'We think within the next week we're going to get a ceasefire.'
Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media.
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Al-Ahram Weekly
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- Al-Ahram Weekly
Egypt pushes for lasting Gaza ceasefire, post-war reconstruction plan: FM Abdelatty - Foreign Affairs
In an interview aired on Sunday evening with presenter Lamis El-Hadidy, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty outlined key elements of a potential Gaza ceasefire agreement currently being developed by the United States, with mediation from Egypt and Qatar. 'We hope for a sustainable solution and a lasting ceasefire. What is currently on the table is a first step—a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of hostages and the rapid entry of humanitarian and medical aid into Gaza,' Abdelatty said. 'The hope is that this will build the momentum necessary to sustain the ceasefire and transition to the second phase, which is based on the 19 January agreement.' He stressed that the proposed agreement would serve as a foundation for a longer-term truce supported by international guarantees. 'There is an American understanding of the importance of including guarantees in any forthcoming agreement to ensure it holds. Renewed aggression would seriously threaten regional stability.' 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'Any international presence, potentially including Arab forces, must be linked to a defined political horizon,' he said. Egypt's participation remains on the table under those conditions. Abdelatty stated that the international community now overwhelmingly supports the necessity of a two-state solution and the realization of a Palestinian state. He stressed that Egypt prefers to speak of 'realizing the Palestinian state' rather than invoking the 'two-state solution,' which he said currently allows Israel, whose government opposes it, to act as a veto-wielding party. 'There is no partner at present. The current Israeli government rejects the two-state solution,' he said. Moreover, he stressed the need for joint action and pressure to realize the Palestinian state, as it is the only guarantee for regional security and stability. 'We are facing an international system that lacks unified rules and standards applicable to all ongoing conflicts.' He criticized the lack of consistent international standards in dealing with conflicts, noting that some states 'place themselves above international and humanitarian law'—a reality Egypt cannot accept. On the question of Hamas's weapons, Abdelatty argued that if a genuine political path to statehood were in place, no group would have justification to bear arms and that the PA must be empowered to perform its security duties in Gaza. Middle East security and Iran–Israel dynamics Abdelatty dismissed speculation about redrawing the map of the Middle East as 'an illusion,' warning that force and military dominance do not bring stability. He said Egypt remains committed to its peace treaty with Israel but has consistently warned Israeli leaders that overwhelming force will not deliver long-term security. 'Regional security requires the will of all states involved—not just one.' He argued that no nation—no matter how powerful or well-supported—can unilaterally shape the region, pointing to the failures of past hegemonic approaches as evidence that lasting security depends on cooperation and inclusion. Asked whether the current Israel–Iran ceasefire would hold, Abdelatty said Egypt is engaged in daily communications with relevant parties and encouraging renewed negotiations between Tehran and Washington. He stated that the recent conflict had not fundamentally altered the regional balance of power, as it was only an attack and a response. He called for a regional security framework that includes nuclear security, reiterating Egypt's demand for a WMD-free zone, and pointed out that Iran is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), while Israel is not. Abdelatty voiced concern over the Dimona nuclear facility near Egypt's border and the risk of Iranian retaliation, noting that both Egypt and Jordan are 'in the area of fire.' 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Egypt Independent
an hour ago
- Egypt Independent
Iran's supreme leader is facing his gravest challenge yet – and has few options left
CNN — For nearly four decades, Iranian Supreme Leader For nearly four decades, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has navigated internal dissent, economic crises and war, but the unprecedented strikes by Israel and the United States on Iran mark his greatest challenge yet. What he decides next will have huge significance for Iran and the rest of the Middle East. But such is the cost of the assault his options are few. It's a huge test for an 86-year-old in declining health with no designated successor. The extent of the damage inflicted on Khamenei's regime remains uncertain, but it struck at the heart of its power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a key military force upholding the Islamic Revolution's ideals, suffered the loss of a string of seasoned commanders. Iran's nuclear facilities, where near-weapons-grade uranium was being enriched, were severely damaged, and key scientists driving the program's advancement were assassinated. Khamenei's regional armed proxy groups were already severely weakened by Israeli attacks, and billions spent on his regime's nuclear program were lost in 12 days – another economic wound at a time of sanctions and soaring inflation. So penetrating were the Israeli strikes that Khamenei delivered his speeches during the conflict from an undisclosed location, signaling lingering concern over his safety. He was not among the hundreds of thousands attending nationwide funerals for the assassinated military commanders and nuclear scientists on Saturday. And it was several days after the ceasefire took effect before the supreme leader delivered a defiant video message to the Iranian people. 'This president (Donald Trump) exposed that truth – he made clear that the Americans will only be satisfied with the total surrender of Iran, and nothing less,' Khamenei said. He also, predictably, declared victory over Israel and the US – a message that triggered a blunt response from Trump. 'Look, you're a man of great faith, a man who's highly respected in his country,' Trump said. 'You have to tell the truth. You got beat to hell.' Once a nimble leader who used political and economic maneuvering to secure his regime's survival, the aging Khamenei now governs an eroding and rigid state. With uncertainty surrounding his succession, the state of his nuclear program, and the strength of his proxy groups, he faces a critical choice: rebuild the same regime or open up in a way that could threaten his hold on power. No surrender Over the decades, Khamenei has confronted a relentless cascade of challenges that together have shaped his regime. Inheriting a nation that in 1989 was wrecked and isolated by war with Iraq, he faced the daunting task of resurrecting his fractured economy and society. He had to manage internal dissent and rivalries within Iran's complex clerical circles, confront unyielding international economic pressures, all while preserving the revolutionary ideals of sovereignty and independence. He has enforced harsh internal repression amid waning public support, notably when women's rights protesters demonstrated for weeks the death of a woman at the hands of the 'morality police,' and when mass protests erupted in 2009 over alleged electoral fraud. Exiled Iranian groups established 24/7 media outlets broadcasting anti-regime propaganda and separatist groups leaked the secrets of his nuclear program. Israel's spy agencies appear to have deeply infiltrated Iran, assassinating nuclear scientists and launching cyberattacks against Iran's infrastructure. But not once – until now – has he had the world's strongest military strike his country, and a US president talk about his possible assassination in a social media post. Israeli and American strikes on Iran, long-anticipated but widely doubted, marked only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a foreign nation directly attacked the country, following Iraq's invasion under Saddam Hussein in the 1980s. Khamenei's main external leverage points – an advanced nuclear program and a network of proxy groups encircling Israel – are now paralyzed. Internally, Khamenei remains Iran's most powerful figure, backed by a loyal support base and institutions built to safeguard his authority. Yet, with Iran reeling from recent attacks and Khamenei in hiding, the aging leader may intensify repression to preserve the revolution's conservative ideals. 'Iranian doctrine was built around the projection of power in the region and the deterrence of adversaries, but the former is ebbed and the latter has failed. 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But Khamenei's distrust of the West, deepened by Trump's unilateral abrogation of a nuclear treaty in his first term and Israel's unprecedented strikes this month – launched two days before an Iranian delegation was due to hold a new round of talks with the US – leaves uncertainty over how he will approach any upcoming negotiations. In an intensifying attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, the Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds, CNN reported this week citing four sources familiar with the matter said. Trump denied the report. But if Trump wants a deal with Iran, his unorthodox public messaging to Khamenei, including implicitly threatening his assassination, could ultimately derail the talks, Iranian officials said. 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Egypt Independent
an hour ago
- Egypt Independent
Why Trump's strikes on Iran will leave North Korea more determined than ever to keep its nukes
Seoul, South Korea CNN — As American B-2 bombers streaked over Iran, targeting facilities tied to Tehran's nuclear ambitions, policymakers and analysts in East Asia were already grappling with a critical question: What signal does this send to North Korea, a country whose nuclear arsenal is far more advanced than Iran's? Experts warn Washington's military actions may harden Pyongyang's resolve to accelerate its weapons program and deepen cooperation with Russia, as well as reinforcing its leader Kim Jong Un's belief that nuclear arms are the ultimate deterrent against US-enforced regime change. Despite yearslong efforts to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, the Kim regime is thought to possess multiple nuclear weapons, as well as missiles that can potentially reach the United States – meaning any potential military strike on the Korean Peninsula would carry vastly higher risks. 'President Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities will undoubtedly further reinforce the legitimacy of North Korea's longstanding policy of regime survival and nuclear weapons development,' said Lim Eul-chul, a professor of North Korean studies at South Korea's Kyungnam University. 'North Korea perceives the recent US airstrike as a preemptive military threat and will likely accelerate efforts to enhance its own capability for preemptive nuclear missile attacks,' said Lim. The Fordow enrichment facility in Iran after it was hit by US strikes, on Sunday. Maxar Technologies That acceleration, analysts caution, could come through Russian assistance, thanks to a blossoming military relationship the two neighbors have struck up in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Since its formal establishment in 2024, North Korea's strategic partnership with Russia has become a vital economic and military lifeline for Pyongyang amid ongoing Western sanctions. 'Based on the strategic alliance between North Korea and Russia, Pyongyang is likely to move toward joint weapons development, combined military exercises, technology transfers, and greater mutual dependence in both economic and military terms,' Lim said. North Korea has sent more than 14,000 soldiers and millions of munitions, including missiles and rockets, to aid in Russia's invasion, according to a report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), an initiative made up of 11 United Nations members. In return, Russia has provided North Korea with various valuable pieces of weaponry and technology, including air defense equipment, anti-aircraft missiles, electronic warfare systems and refined oil. These actions 'allow North Korea to fund its military programs and further develop its ballistic missiles programs, which are themselves prohibited under multiple (UN Security Council resolutions), and gain first-hand experience in modern warfare,' the report found. Iraq, Libya, Iran and the lessons of US-led intervention In Kim's eyes, recent US military actions in Iran follow a troubling logic: countries without nuclear weapons, from Iraq and Libya to Iran, are vulnerable to US-led intervention, said Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. North Korea, having already tested six nuclear devices and developed long-range missiles, sees its arsenal as non-negotiable. According to Cha, Washington's airstrikes against Tehran's nuclear assets will likely leave a lasting impression on the Kim regime. 'The strikes on Iran will only reaffirm two things for North Korea, neither of which play well for US policy,' he said. 'One: the US does not have a use-of-force option for North Korea's nuclear program like they had in Israel for Iran. Two: the strike only reaffirms in Kim Jong Un's mind his conviction to pursue and maintain a nuclear arsenal.' And the contrast between Iran and North Korea is stark, particularly in terms of nuclear capabilities. 'Pyongyang's nuclear program is much more advanced, with weapons possibly ready to launch on multiple delivery systems, including ICBMs,' said Leif-Eric Easley, an international security professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, referencing intercontinental ballistic missiles which can travel around the globe, far further than any missiles Iran possesses. 'The Kim regime can threaten the US homeland, and Seoul is within range of many North Korean weapons of various types,' he added. Iran, by contrast, has not yet developed a deliverable nuclear weapon and its uranium enrichment had remained short of the threshold for weaponization, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency's latest assessment. It had also pursued years of diplomacy with the US and Western powers over its nuclear program, diplomacy that was supposedly still in play when Trump ordered B-2 stealth aircraft to drop 'bunker busting' bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities. A missile flies during what North Korean state media described as a test-launch of a strategic cruise missile, designed to demonstrate the readiness of various nuclear capabilities, off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, on February 26, 2025, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency. KCNA/Reuters A matrix of deterrents North Korea is believed to possess between 40 and 50 warheads, along with the means to deliver them across the region and potentially to the US mainland. 'An attack on North Korea could provoke the risk of full-scale nuclear war,' Lim of Kyungnam University warned. He added that under the US-South Korea alliance treaty, US military action against North Korea would also require prior consultation with the South Korean government, a step that carries political and legal implications. There are also external powers to consider. Unlike Iran, North Korea has a formal mutual defense treaty with Russia, 'which allows Russia to automatically intervene in the event of an attack,' Lim underscored. This matrix of deterrents – nuclear capability, US regional alliances, and Russian backing – likely insulates Pyongyang from the kind of unilateral military action Washington exercised in Iran. In the end, said Lim, the strike on Iran might not serve as a deterrent to proliferation but as a justification. 'This attack will deepen North Korea's distrust of the US,' he said, 'and is expected to act as a catalyst for a shift in North Korea's foreign policy, particularly by strengthening and deepening military cooperation with Russia.'
