How Will Guess Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Guess Stock (NYSE: GES) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 29, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of -69 cents per share alongside $631 million in revenue. This would be a comparison to the previous year's figures of -24 cents per share and $592 million in revenue. Traditionally, GES stock has seen an increase 63% of the time following earnings reports, with a median one-day gain of 10.3% and an observed maximum increase of 26%.
The company is facing challenges in the Americas sector, elevated stock levels, and substantial markdowns—all of which have adversely affected the company's profitability. Broader market fluctuations, driven by tariff policies from the Trump administration, coupled with rising trade tensions, have further strained the stock this year. While Guess's acquisition of Rag & Bone is aiding in revenue growth, the profit margins have sharply declined. Guess is reevaluating its strategy in China, shifting from direct operations to a potential collaboration with a seasoned local firm. In North America, the company intends to shut approximately 20 underperforming stores amid ongoing reductions in foot traffic, as a part of a more extensive initiative to optimize its retail presence. The company holds a market capitalization of $574 million. Over the past twelve months, revenue amounted to $3.0 billion, with operational profits of $173 million and net income of $60 million. Additionally, refer to Buy or Sell Guess Stock?
For event-driven traders, historical trends may provide a competitive advantage, whether through pre-earnings positioning or responding to post-release movements. If you are looking for upside potential with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns surpassing 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
GES 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying a pair with the highest correlation, and implementing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader may position themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here's some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. The correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
GES Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Occasionally, peer performance can impact the stock reaction following earnings. In fact, the pricing may begin even before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical performance data on the post-earnings reactions of Guess? stock compared to the performance of peer stocks that reported earnings just before Guess?. For a fair comparison, the returns of peer stocks also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
GES Correlation With Earnings of Peers
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