Take-Two Shares Drop on GTA's ‘Perfect Track Record of Delays'
'We hope you understand that we need this extra time to deliver at the level of quality you expect and deserve,' Take-Two Rockstar Games division wrote on a social media post Friday morning.
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GTA VI is now delayed some eight months beyond the initial early 2025 release time that Wall Street had been expecting. The past two editions of Grand Theft Auto have each been delayed by six months, with earlier versions also behind schedule.
'Rockstar keeps its perfect track record of delays' Jefferies analyst James Heaney wrote in a morning note on the news. 'Getting an actual release date reduces the likelihood of a further delay, but with Rockstar that chance is never zero.'
While the GTA delay means Take-Two probably falls short of revenue expectations for 2025, Friday's share drop is probably just short-term minded traders exiting their positions without any serious judgment on Take-Two's long-term business being passed by the market, according to Heaney.
2026 'should still deliver record bookings from Mafia and Borderlands 4, and all past Rockstar delays have ultimately proven to be buying opportunities,' he wrote.
Previous editions of Red Dead Redemption (RDR), another one of the Take Two's core franchises, have also been delivered behind schedule, as have many other Rockstar titles, according to a 2024 article by enthusiast publication Kotaku.
While Grand Theft Auto hasn't been positioned as an esports title, its success has been integral to Take Two's business. GTA, RDR, NBA 2K, BioShock and Borderlands account for some 85% of the company's revenue, according to CFRA analyst Shreya Gheewala.
Take-Two has had the highest-performing stock of publicly traded video game-makers the past six months; it has risen 22% while Electronic Arts, Microsoft and Ubisoft have all declined. The company also benefited from management's confidence that Grand Theft Auto would be released this fall. Take-Two flawlessly released NBA 2K25 last year with better-than-expected results.
'We're forecasting calendar year 2025 to be an inflection point for Take-Two from the groundbreaking release of Grand Theft Auto VI to the unmatched pipeline that 2K is set to deliver,' Take-Two executive chairman and CEO Strauss Zelnick said in February. The company is expected to release 2K PGA and WWE titles this year.
The delay should also have a beneficial effect on EA, which has struggled in the stock market due to mediocre business in its EA Sports FC 25 game, the soccer title previously published with the FIFA name. EA has said it will not release the next version of its Battlefield, a first-person shooter game, this year if it had to compete against GTA for consumer attention, according to Heaney.
The fall selling window is now opening up for EA, and, in line with that thinking, EA shares jumped as high as 6% Friday in early trading.
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