Zohran Mamdani's win could mean more wealthy New York transplants to Florida, developer says

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a day ago

South Florida experienced a wave of new residents from the Northeast during the pandemic as people fled strict lockdowns, school closures and the shuttering of businesses. But will there be another surge out of New York City with democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani poised to become the Democratic nominee for mayor?
Mamdani, 33, who declared victory in the party's primary June 24, campaigned on promises that some business owners and affluent residents oppose. Those include freezing rental costs, offering free childcare, eliminating city bus fares, creating city-owned grocery stores, and hiking the taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers and biggest corporations.
"Just when you thought Palm Beach real estate couldn't go any higher … ," Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a social media post with a link to a poll that put Mamdani ahead of opponent and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo before the primary results were released.
One day after the election, at least one South Florida developer said he and his properties had gotten calls from people in New Jersey, Manhattan and Connecticut who are interested in moving to Florida.
"Obviously, what they see happening makes them nervous and they want to plan their future and have peace of mind," said Isaac Toledano, CEO and co-founder of BH Group, which is working with the Miami-based Related Group to build the Ritz Carlton Residences in West Palm Beach. "I think the rush is going to start now because the unknown is something people don't like."
Realtors who deal in high-end properties said their phones are also ringing with people surprised about the result of the primary election and interested in potentially buying in Florida.
"Local politics matter, almost more than national politics, and if local is going to a more socialist form of government, you could lose some of your really wealthy taxpayers," said Nathan Zeder, co-founder of the Jills Zeder Group in Miami. "The calls and texts, the response yesterday, was way more than what I anticipated."
Celebrity real estate agent Ryan Serhant, who has a Netflix show called "Owning Manhattan", told the New York Post that his "number one job will be moving people from New York to Florida. Again."
'Based on the results, clients are going to hold off on making any kind of investment in New York City," Serhant said in the New York Post story.
Serhant specializes in New York real estate but has recently made a push into Palm Beach County with $100-plus million sales in the town of Palm Beach and offices in Delray Beach and Jupiter. He was previously on Bravo TV's "Million Dollar Listing New York."
Florida got a boost in New York transplants during COVID-19. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 254,097 New York state residents moved to the Sunshine State between 2021 and 2023.
The number of people who traded in their New York driver's licenses in 2022 for ones with a Palm Beach County address totaled 8,059, which was a 38% increase from the average over the previous six years.
"Today is a great day for the state and we welcome businesses who want to grow jobs and families who want to live in safe communities!" Florida U.S. Sen Rick Scott wrote in a June 25 social media comment. Scott linked to a post from the National Republican Congressional Committee that called Mamdani an "antisemitic socialist radical."
Mamdani has declined to condemn the phrase "globalize the intifada," which is widely considered by the Jewish community as a call to violence. He has also referred to Israel's war in Gaza against Hamas after the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks as a genocide. Mamdani has also said he would have Benjamin Netanyahu arrested if the prime minister of Israel came to New York.
Other Palm Beach County Realtors said they have not fielded calls yet from New Yorkers antsy about what Mamdani's agenda may bring, but they don't doubt they will come.
"We had the pandemic, then we had the Trump bump and this is another reason why folks may want to move here," said Elizabeth DeWoody, founding principal of real estate firm Compass Palm Beach. "We are an incredible, pro-business, forward-thinking community."
The nonprofit Citizens Budget Commission, which tracks New York's economy and business finances, found New York City lost $3.1 billion in adjusted gross income from 19,540 New Yorkers who moved to Palm Beach County between 2018 and 2022. It lost an estimated $809.3 million from people who moved to Broward County during the same time period, and $6.1 billion from people who moved to Miami-Dade County.
More: West Palm Beach feels growing pains amid wealth influx as neighborhoods navigate change
"It was all New York until recently, or the Northeast," DeWoody said. "Now it's California, and I think we will see New York again. Sometimes it's just one thing after another that seals the deal for people."
Billionaire John Catsimatidis, whose Red Apple Group has real estate investments in Florida, said he would close or sell his Manhattan-based chain of grocery stores if Mamdani wins November's general election, according to a New York Post story. Mamdani's competitors for the mayor's seat include current Mayor Eric Adams, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa, former federal prosecutor Jim Walden and possibly Cuomo.
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'We can't compete with Mamdani opening city-run supermarkets for free,' Catsimatidis said in the New York Post story.
In an interview with The Free Press, he said he'd spend more time in Florida.
Christian Prakas, a founding partner of Ryan Serhant's real estate office in Delray Beach, said he's already been in touch with his boss about the possible increase in New-York-to-Palm-Beach-County moves.
"He thinks it's going to be bad up there," Prakas said.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [e-mail]. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: DeSantis muses about palm beach real estate after Zohran Mamdani won