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A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI)

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI)

Yahoo22-06-2025

Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Spectral AI fair value estimate is US$2.30
Current share price of US$2.19 suggests Spectral AI is potentially trading close to its fair value
Our fair value estimate is 52% lower than Spectral AI's analyst price target of US$4.79
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
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We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
-US$8.90m
-US$1.80m
US$3.70m
US$2.90m
US$3.30m
US$3.60m
US$3.87m
US$4.10m
US$4.31m
US$4.50m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 9.20%
Est @ 7.32%
Est @ 6.01%
Est @ 5.09%
Est @ 4.44%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%
-US$8.3
-US$1.6
US$3.0
US$2.2
US$2.3
US$2.3
US$2.3
US$2.3
US$2.3
US$2.2
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$9.1m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$4.5m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.9%) = US$103m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$103m÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= US$50m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$59m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$2.2, the company appears about fair value at a 4.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Spectral AI as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.040. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
View our latest analysis for Spectral AI
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Forecast to reduce losses next year.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Spectral AI, we've put together three essential factors you should further research:
Risks: Take risks, for example - Spectral AI has 4 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
Future Earnings: How does MDAI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQCM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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