Will Israel's airstrikes help the Druze in Syria?

Yahoo

3 days ago

Israel's intervention escalated with more airstrikes and officials' comments, raising questions about what might come next and if the limited intervention will help the Druze.
Violence continued in southern Syria on Tuesday. Syrian government forces and local tribes clashed with Druze fighters in the city of Sweida.
Israel's intervention also appeared to escalate, with more airstrikes and comments from officials. This leads to the question of what might come next and whether Israel's limited intervention will help the Druze.
The Druze region in Syria is complex, and the people there are divided. Some appear to back Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, a Druze spiritual leader who has opposed the new government in Damascus. Others back other factions and may prefer more accommodation with Damascus. None of them want to see their area overrun by extremists and enemies.
The Druze are in a precarious situation. Their community is armed, and many of the men have military training from having served in the army. They have a long tradition of seeking to have some autonomy in their region. They also likely understand that the new government in Syria wants to control their region and limit their independence.
The question now is whether the government can come to an agreement that leads to peace, or whether this smoldering conflict will merely see the can kicked down the road until the next round.
There have already been at least three rounds of serious clashes with the new authorities in Damascus. Usually, these are fueled by local squabbles, and each side blames the other.
There are also extremist voices in Syria who are against the Druze and threaten them. At the same time, the Druze may also be involved in provoking some of these clashes.
In a conflict, it is not always a simple story, and Syria is a complex mosaic of groups and interests.
What is Israel's interest in this? Israel has a large Druze community. Protests broke out in northern Israel on Tuesday. Clearly, Israeli Druze do not want to see their comrades harmed in Syria. Do they want more intervention than just airstrikes? Might they prefer a back-channel discussion with Damascus to ease tensions?
In the past, other Druze leaders have tried to help the Syrian government of Ahmed al-Sharaa come to an agreement with leaders in Suwadya, the capital of the Druze area in southern Syria.
Walid Jumblatt from Lebanon is one example of a foreign Druze leader who might be able to help. Can Israel also assist? Perhaps. Will airstrikes stop the forces from Damascus?
The Syrian government has been told by Israel since early this year that Israel wants southern Syria demilitarized. This means any tanks and armored personnel carriers may become targets in southern Syria.
The Syrian government doesn't have many armored vehicles. It does have more and more trained forces, including several divisions of troops. It also has some armed gangs that back the government but have previous affiliations with extremist groups.
These groups tend to be what could be described as 'jihadists,' and they tend to be Sunni extremists. They dislike the Druze when they feel the Druze are not obeying the state or are just appearing to submit to Damascus.
This is a sensitive time in Syria. Many countries want to invest in Damascus, including Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Azerbaijan, and the US. European countries want a stable Syria after 14 years of civil war.
It's unlikely anyone wants to see more clashes in Sweida. As long as some Druze factions feel they can use arms to get what they want, however, and they have Israel's backing, it's unlikely that the clashes will end.
At the same time, the government in Damascus may become angrier at Israel if it feels Israel is stirring up sectarian tensions or providing a kind of air force for the Druze. That means Israel's policy could backfire and lead to more resentment.
On the other hand, the policy could also work and deter Damascus from unleashing extremists. Damascus is on notice not to do what it did in Latakia, when it sent gangs to attack Alawites.
Will airstrikes weaken the right units of the government?
The question for Damascus is whether the Israeli airstrikes will weaken the right units of the government. Will the airstrikes embolden the extremists, who arrive in civilian-style vehicles that Israel would likely be less keen on using airstrikes against?
Basically, it's easier for an air force to strike tanks and APCs than random trucks with guys in them. Israel can't really conduct an air war in Syria against the Syrian government.
Eventually, this would likely cause the Trump administration to try to cool things down. This is because the White House wants to see a stable Syria.
US envoy to Syria Tom Barrack has sought to bring Syria in from the cold and help it integrate into the region. As such, clashes in Sweida are always a setback.
The Druze leader Hijri has accused the government of breaking promises.
The Syrian government wants a ceasefire. 'To all units operating inside the city of Suwayda, we announce a complete ceasefire after the agreement with the city's dignitaries and notables, with response only to sources of fire and dealing with any targeting by outlaw groups,' Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said.
Nevertheless, the death toll has reportedly risen to 100. The Druze fear they may face attacks, ethnic cleansing, or worse.
Some Druze want to see international intervention. Others seem to hope the government may help reduce tensions. 'Earlier, the Druze leadership had issued a statement calling on fighters in Sweida to cooperate with incoming regime forces and stop clashes to protect civilians and state institutions,' Rudaw media, based in northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan Region, reported.
'The statement welcomed the deployment of forces from Syria's interior and defense ministries and urged a ceasefire until a civilian safety agreement is reached.'
Israel was more outspoken on Tuesday as well. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a joint statement, and the IDF said it had carried out airstrikes against what it termed the Syrian 'regime.'
The regime was the term once used for the Assad regime. Since last December, when the Assad regime fell, Israel has been more aggressive in Syria. The airstrikes against forces linked to the new government are an example.
During Israel's campaign between the wars in Syria, when it struck Iranian assets in Syria, the IDF rarely targeted Syrian regime forces. This is a major contrast.
Najat Rochdi, the UN's deputy special envoy for Syria, expressed 'deep concern over reports of violence and abductions' in the Druze region. She called on Damascus to protect civilians and restore calm, Rudaw reported.
The death toll had reached almost 100 people, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported earlier in the day.
Meanwhile, news of a ceasefire in Suwadya was greeted positively in Lebanon by Jumblatt. He praised 'reaching a lasting solution within the framework of the state.'
Jumblatt called for incitement to end. He also said 'outlaw groups in Sweida must hand over weapons to the state.' Israel wants to fuel the fighting in Syria, he added, according to Syria's official Syrian Arab News Agency.