White House Struggles To Explain Deportation Figures—As Experts Dispute Numbers
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which routinely releases deportation figures, has reported deporting fewer people than the Biden administration: 660 on average per day during Trump's first 100 days, compared to a daily average of 742 under Biden last year, leading to multiple news reports Trump isn't living up to his promise to sharply increase deportations.
In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security has begun to release new deportation figures more than double the ICE data, explaining the larger number also includes deportations carried out by the Coast Guard and Customs and Border Protection, along with 'thousands' of people who have used the CBP One Home app to 'self-deport,' telling Forbes on Tuesday the administration deported 142,000 individuals during Trump's first 100 days in office.
But the number of people crossing the southern border illegally and being apprehended by Customs and Border Protection is far lower than it was during the Biden administration—7,181 under Trump last month versus 137,473 under Biden in March 2024—and neither the White House, nor CBP, has publicly released the CBP deportation figures.
An official for the Coast Guard, which helps intercept migrants from waters along the U.S. border, told Forbes it does not conduct deportations, so its figure is zero.
Without a complete picture of the data, there's no way to compare deportations under Trump to previous years, leading some immigration experts to criticize the Trump administration for lack of transparency and speculate whether it's manipulating numbers.
'Although the administration might well be lying, I am more concerned that they are engaging in what we call 'number laundering' or secretly switching up their counting methods to make the numbers look higher than they normally would be,' Austin Kocher, an immigration data analyst and researcher at Syracuse University told Forbes, adding 'it's one thing to play politics with politics—it's another to play politics with the data.' Tom Cartwright, who monitors ICE deportation flights for Witness at the Border, told USA Today 'I just don't find these numbers plausible unless DHS is including some amorphous estimate for self-deportations.'
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said this week Mexico has received 39,000 deported migrants, including 33,000 Mexicans, since Trump took office, compared to 52,000 in February, March and April last year.
Trump has set a goal to deport 1 million people during his first year in office, and has launched a high-profile immigration enforcement campaign to promote the initiative, often featuring DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Border Czar Tom Homan participating in filmed border enforcement activity. Trump, meanwhile, has passed numerous executive orders to tamp down on immigration. He shut the border to most asylum seekers within days of taking office, has attempted to eliminate birthright citizenship, invoked a wartime authority known as the Alien Enemies Act to swiftly deport migrants, and wants to revoke federal funding for so-called sanctuary cities. Trump is seeking additional funding from Congress to arrest, detain and deport migrants and continue building a wall at the southern border.
Homan Presses Undocumented Immigrants To Self-Deport, Threatening Prosecution (Politico)
ICE Data Shows High Arrests, Lagging Deportation Effort (Wall Street Journal)
White House touts nearly 140,000 deportations, but data says roughly half actually deported (USA Today)
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