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Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's Munich Conference: A historic moment for unity in Iran's opposition
Pahlavi concluded his address to attendees with a message of determination and hope: "Ali Khamenei must know: his regime is crumbling." Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi declared that 'a united opposition' to the Islamic dictatorship of Iran was finally coming together as he convened the largest and most diverse gathering of Iranian opposition forces in Munich on Saturday. The Convention of National Cooperation to Save Iran brought together over 500 attendees representing what Pahlavi called 'the broadest and most diverse coalition of Iranian opposition forces ever assembled.' The Munich convention represented an unprecedented moment of unity among Iranian dissidents not seen in the 46-year rule of the ayatollahs' regime. Attendees spanned the ideological spectrum, from Left to Right, and included monarchists and republicans, as well as individuals from different religious, linguistic, ethnic, and tribal backgrounds. Political organizations, prominent dissidents, entrepreneurs, academics, artists, and athletes all participated in what organizers described as a historic convergence against the Islamic Republic. Attendees and speakers included Tayeb Azmoudeh, Iranian wrestling champion; Mahab Mehrabi, sister of political prisoner Mahmoud Mehrabi; Anshan Khosravi, a leader of the Bakhtiari tribe; economic journalist Moloud Hajizadeh, and political activist Vahid Bahmani. A particularly poignant moment resulted when political prisoners from Greater Tehran Prison sent an audio message announcing their support for the convention and Pahlavi's leadership of a transition to a democratic and secular Iran. Victims of the regime's brutality and family members of those murdered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also shared their stories at the gathering. In his address, Pahlavi painted a striking picture of Iran's current state under the Islamic Republic. 'This regime has driven Iran's water, land, air, skies, lives, and wealth to the edge of destruction,' the prince stated, highlighting Iran's recent environmental issues, including the lack of water. 'Iran's rivers are dry, its soil eroding, its ground sinking, its air polluted, its skies in the hands of foreign forces, its economy in free fall, its people's homes without water or electricity; and their lives held hostage to the sectarian delusions of an anti-Iranian regime and its foolish leader.' The crown prince argued that Iran's very existence was in greater danger than ever before due to the continuation of the Islamic Republic. Pahlavi placed particular blame on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating, 'The person responsible for this situation is none other than Ali Khamenei. It is he who, step-by-step, brought our homeland to this point.' He characterized the regime as having 'abandoned governance entirely, except for its machinery of repression.' Five-pillar strategy for change Building on agreements reached at the first Munich summit five months earlier, Pahlavi outlined the progress of a five-pillar strategy for regime change: Maximum Pressure on the Islamic Republic: The crown prince noted that the regime was now 'at its most isolated and vulnerable,' facing unprecedented international pressure while unable to provide for the basic needs of the people. Maximum support for the Iranian people: Pahlavi reported increasing readiness from governments, political parties, and public figures to support the Iranian people's struggle, with concrete solutions being actively pursued. Maximum defections from the regime: Significant progress has been made in encouraging defections, with activities targeting both general personnel and high-ranking officials. Pahlavi claimed to have developed deep insights into the regime's internal structures and established communication with elements inside the system. Maximum mobilization and organization: The Munich gathering itself exemplified this pillar, with the number of collaborating groups nearly tripling in just five months under the Munich convergence framework. Developing a Plan for Iran's Future: The Iran Prosperity Project (IPP) has made 'remarkable strides' in developing a vision for rebuilding the country post-regime. Pahlavi also presented a detailed Emergency Transitional Government Plan, proposing two core institutions for the current phase: a temporary executive team and a National Uprising Council, which would serve as a strategic advisory body. He emphasized that the temporary executive team would dissolve once the transition government was formed, while the National Uprising Council would continue as a provisional legislative body until the first elected parliament convened. Crucially, Pahlavi reiterated that he does not seek political office, stating: 'As I have repeatedly stated, I do not seek political office or position. I want to create a space and structure so that those who wish to serve the nation and restore Iran's lost greatness can present themselves and their plans in a democratic process to the people's vote.' The Munich convention took place against the backdrop of recent controversies surrounding Pahlavi's participation in international forums. Earlier this year, he was initially invited to the Munich Security Conference but subsequently disinvited twice, with Pahlavi accusing the German government of influencing the decision. Pahlavi argued on Saturday that recent military confrontations have exposed the regime's weakness, particularly noting that the IRGC 'handed over Iran's skies to a much smaller and less populous country' in an obvious reference to the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran. He emphasized that 'factionalism and division within the regime's power structure have reached a peak' with senior officials 'conspiring against one another and jockeying through intermediaries to present themselves as Khamenei's successor to foreign and regional powers.' Despite facing increased threats from the regime, Pahlavi concluded his address with a message of determination and hope. 'Ali Khamenei must know: His regime is crumbling. Many of those around him despise him. A large number of IRGC members are looking for a way to jump ship. And the overwhelming majority of the people detest him and his regime.' He also announced plans for a campaign website to serve as 'a central hub to attract talent, register ideas, report events, present programs, organize activists, and collect funding,' signaling the opposition's commitment to sustained, organized resistance. The Munich convention signifies the growing momentum of Iranian opposition politics. Despite many expecting the regime to fall during the June war with Israel, it has taken time for opposition groups to come together and attempt to form a united front. Whether this unity can translate into effective action inside Iran remains to be seen, but Pahlavi's message was clear: 'Our victory is closer than ever. Believe in your power.' The crown prince concluded, 'We are a great nation. We will reclaim Iran. Long live Iran!' Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Fighting the world, losing the war: IRGC talks big after beatdown by Israel
IRAN AFFAIRS: A wounded tiger is a dangerous beast, and the IRGC, in claiming it was taking on the world, feels backed into a corner. In the aftermath of the most direct and devastating confrontation between Israel and Iran in the history of the Islamic Republic, the ayatollahs in Tehran have traded silence for shouting. The missiles and planes may have stopped, but the regime's war of words is just beginning, in a grand attempt to convince its own people that defeat was actually a victory. For 12 days in June, Israeli drones and warplanes struck deep into Iranian territory. They demolished air-defense batteries, destroyed nuclear facilities, and assassinated senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. What Iran had long called unthinkable, war on its own soil, had become its new reality. And then, silence. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vanished from view. IRGC commanders went underground. Tehran's propaganda outlets recycled boilerplate slogans, but the leadership said nothing of substance. Now, weeks later, they are saying everything, and none of it is real. At the end of June, Khamenei emerged from hiding and delivered a surreal speech, claiming 'decisive victory' over Israel and the United States. According to the ayatollah, the Zionist regime had been 'crushed,' and America 'slapped in the face.' A handful of retaliatory missiles fired at a US base in Qatar, which caused no known casualties, were presented as triumphs of strategic restraint and divine strength. Yet in the real world, Iran's skies had been ruled by Israeli drones. Its nuclear infrastructure was set back by years. Its air defenses were shattered. Its IRGC elite, including Quds Force commanders and senior scientists, were eliminated. What Khamenei portrayed as victory, the region witnessed as a stunning and humiliating exposure of Iran's vulnerabilities. Even more troubling was his absence during the war. Multiple credible reports revealed that the supreme leader had been moved to a secure underground facility, his location known to only a handful of aides. Electronic communications were severed. Senior Iranian officials reportedly didn't know where he was or whether he remained fully briefed. When even insiders are asking who is in charge, it signals a regime in free fall. 'We fought the world' In recent days, regime voices have grown louder. IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini warned that any future attack from Israel would be met with a 'crushing' response, and that the 'geography of the battlefield' would change. 'If the Zionist regime launches a new attack on the powerful and resilient Iran, the initiative to end the conflict will be in our hands,' Naeini said. 'We will not allow the sirens in the occupied territories to fall silent, and the enemy must not have the opportunity to leave its shelters,' Naeini stated. 'They will experience more fleeing and displacement than they did during the 12-day war.' Former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaei declared that Iran would 'wipe Israel off the face of the earth forever.' And interim chief of staff Habibollah Sayyari went one better: 'People must understand that we did not fight just one regime... we fought NATO, Europe, and the United States. This is very important, yet we emerged from it with our heads held high.' This is siege mentality of the highest order and an attempt to reframe a tactical and operational catastrophe as an epic showdown with global imperialism. By claiming to have fought 'the world,' Iran seeks to elevate its loss into legend, and to insulate its leadership from accountability. But that very narrative raises the obvious question: If Iran acquitted itself so honorably against the combined might of the West, why did it suffer so much so quickly? The answer is simple. Despite years of building up arms and supplying proxies in the region, Tehran was never prepared for this war, and it showed. Nowhere is Iran's weakening grip more visible than in its own security apparatus. The IRGC, the regime's enforcer since 1979, was built to protect clerical rule and crush dissent. Over four decades, it has grown into a military-industrial empire, dominating everything from oil to foreign policy. It is designated a terrorist organization by the US and serves as the spearhead of Tehran's global ambitions. But it has never faced a blow like this. Israel eliminated key IRGC leaders in rapid succession, and such decapitating strikes on the IRGC's upper echelons have left the organization reeling from top to bottom. This week at his Munich Conference, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last shah, claimed that thousands of state security personnel have already signed up to his campaign to bring democracy back to Iran. 'A large number of IRGC members are looking for a way to jump ship,' Pahlavi told those gathered. It may be the most dangerous proposition the Islamic Republic has faced yet: defections. History shows that regimes fall not when the public turns against them, but when the coercive institutions break ranks. And with the IRGC's leadership gutted, its credibility shattered, and its soldiers increasingly disillusioned, the regime's days may be numbered, if they choose to walk away. There is precedent to Iran's bluster. In 1988, the first supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, likened the ceasefire to end the Iran-Iraq War to drinking poison. In 2020, after Qasem Soleimani's assassination, Iran claimed symbolic strikes were sufficient revenge. And now, after a devastating defeat, the regime insists it has won. This is the Islamic Republic's pattern: deny, mythologize, and lash out. But each time, the audience shrinks and the myth fades faster. The people no longer believe in the regime. Even among traditional allies, Iran found little support. China issued a few generic statements. Russia remained preoccupied with Ukraine. The Gulf states largely stayed silent. In global forums, Iran's narrative failed to gain traction. Tehran's claim of 'resistance' now looks more like an act of desperation from a regime unsure of its next move. But a regime that loses its grip on truth is dangerous. One that loses its grip on its own armed forces is more so. Tehran may lash out in irrational ways. Cyberattacks, covert plots abroad, or asymmetric strikes in Africa or Latin America may all occur in response to the June war, and the threat has grown for Jews and Israelis abroad. The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom released a July update to its annual report stating that, 'following the June 2025 regional military escalation, Iran has also escalated its targeting of Jewish sites and individuals abroad. In July, Danish authorities arrested a man recruited by Iranian intelligence authorities to gather information on possible attacks on Jewish targets in Germany. Days later, British authorities released a report detailing Iranian government efforts to activate proxy cells to kill or kidnap Jewish individuals in the country. 'Iranian authorities are also spreading antisemitism online and through official foreign media channels,' the update continued. 'For example, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting network uses Spanish-language media to promote antisemitic myths and ideas, including Jewish power over Hollywood and Holocaust revisionism. Through IRIB's PressTV and its Spanish-language counterpart, HispanTV, Iranian authorities are also pushing the 'Plan Andinia' conspiracy. This myth is anchored in the tropes of Jewish people hoarding power, money, and influence and plotting a 'secret plan' to establish a second Zionist state in the Patagonia region of Argentina and Chile.' A wounded tiger is a dangerous beast, and the IRGC, in claiming it was taking on the world, feels backed into a corner. Deprived of legitimacy at home, abandoned by many allies abroad, and challenged by defections in its own ranks, the Islamic Republic may now seek revenge. When Tehran cannot project power with missiles, it will turn to proxies and assassins. Because, it is important to remember, the Islamic Republic may be bloodied, but it is not yet dead.
Yahoo
21 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Is China waking up to Israel's strategic importance? Beijing rethinks Middle East strategy
An expert analyzes how China is responding to a new set of global challenges. China's growing engagement in the Middle East—heightened by the recent escalation of conflict in Gaza—has drawn significant global attention and speculation. Traditionally, Beijing's regional strategy has focused on securing long-term economic and energy interests: ensuring access to vital energy resources, safeguarding major international trade corridors, and investing extensively in infrastructure, technology, and energy sectors, particularly in the Persian Gulf. Yet, despite these strategic imperatives, China continues to pursue a deliberately ambivalent and multidimensional approach toward key regional actors, most notably Iran and Israel. This carefully calibrated posture reflects broader geopolitical shifts, the erosion of US hegemony, and, above all, the mounting instability across the Middle East—developments that increasingly threaten both regional equilibrium and China's own economic security. Energy and strategic interests Energy security is a central pillar of China's strategic outlook. As the world's largest oil importer, China currently sources around 40% of its oil from the Middle East–a figure expected to double by 2035. This heavy reliance exposes Beijing to acute vulnerabilities should conflict or instability disrupt critical maritime chokepoints such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. These strategic routes also account for roughly 60% of China's trade with Europe and Africa, further amplifying the stakes of regional volatility. Beyond energy, China's broader economic footprint in the region—particularly through the global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—faces mounting risks. Saudi Arabia, China's largest trading partner in the region, exemplifies this accelerating interdependence: their bilateral trade reached $107.53 billion in 2024, underscoring the rapid deepening of their economic ties. Navigating regional rivalries Alongside its pursuit of undermining the American regional influence and asserting itself as a stabilizing global power, Beijing–long known for its cautious and natural approach–has recently adopted a more pragmatic, proactive stance in the diplomatic arena. This shift reflects a delicate balancing act and the adaptation of a flexible, well-calibrated strategy, aimed at maximizing the value derived from diverse strategic partnerships while carefully avoiding alienating any particular state or favouring one over another. China's sophisticated manoeuvring between rival actors and competing regional interests—exemplified by its concurrent cooperation with Saudi Arabia, whose Crown Prince's global ambitious vision, "Vision 2030," is being advanced in tandem with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This occurs despite its deepening ties with Iran and opposition to its nuclear program and while simultaneously leading diplomatic efforts and negotiations with both the United States and Arab leaders, aimed at promoting a ceasefire and preventing further security escalation in the Middle East. Furthermore, China draws a clear distinction between declarative rhetoric and operational conduct, as well as between political confrontations and broader systemic interests. These distinctions enable it to uphold the principle of non-intervention—avoiding direct political or military involvement—while simultaneously continuing to lead a critical discourse that includes sharp condemnation of Israel and its military policies, alongside consistent support, on the other hand, for the Palestinian and Iranian positions. The Israel-Iran conflict: A critical turning point However, a closer look reveals that the recent direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, which erupted in June, along with US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has triggered a significant shift in China's perception of both actors. This shift is already challenging its previously neutral stance, testing its relationships with regional states and its ability to navigate among them. Moreover, this development increases China's dependence on oil powers, intensifying its need to diversify energy sources and alternative trade and supply routes, including diversified engagements with Central Asian states. Alongside its commitment to invest approximately $400 billion in the development of critical infrastructure across Iran, including the establishment of logistical corridors and the strengthening of security and economic cooperation as part of the BRI project, Beijing is simultaneously cultivating economic and strategic partnerships with Israel, primarily in the fields of high-tech, innovation, and science. Recent reports indicate that bilateral trade volume between China and Israel reached $16.27 billion in 2024, compared to $14.56 billion in 2023. Furthermore, in May of this year, Chinese exports to Israel totalled $1.45 billion, while imports from Israel reached $1.7 billion–figures that reflect Israel's rising significance in Beijing's calculations. Moreover, alongside efforts to restore Iran's military capabilities and renew its missile systems damaged during Israeli and American strikes, China—having for the first time adopted a relatively moderate and conciliatory stance toward Israel—simultaneously directed sharp criticism at the Iranian leadership, accusing it of ideological dogmatism and adherence to an extreme political position. From Beijing's perspective, the conflict with Israel has demonstrated that Iran—significantly weakened—is no longer keeping pace with global developments, and that the so-called 'Axis of Resistance,' including the network of proxies it has cultivated across the Middle East over the years, is gradually fracturing. Senior Chinese scholars have even suggested that the Ayatollah regime, now perceived as teetering on the brink of collapse, no longer serves the strategic interests of China's leadership in the region. Strategic adjustments Recently, voices in Israel are increasingly calling for a reassessment of relations with China, despite constraints imposed by the United States. This presents an opportunity to adopt a new, pragmatic foreign policy approach—one that advances Israel's interests in China, across Asia, and more broadly among countries of the 'Global South.' At the same time, it could help integrate China into initiatives aimed at promoting stability in the Middle East, including the future rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip. All of this is especially relevant today, amid mounting global criticism of Israel, the renewal of nuclear talks with Iran, and the unpredictable foreign policy of the President of the United States. From a broad geopolitical and strategic perspective, it is already becoming apparent that even a partial or limited shift in China's stance toward Israel constitutes an important diplomatic signal—one that could eventually lead to a significant strategic turning point. Beyond the inherent advantages of strengthening bilateral ties and expanding Beijing's role as a mediator between regional adversaries, deeper Chinese involvement could help restrain Iran or, at the very least, counterbalance its negative influence while reducing the risk of regional security escalation. In addition, recognition from China could enhance Israel's prestige and global image—not only as a member of the American-Western bloc and a close ally of the United States, but also as a powerful and legitimate actor on the international stage. Strengthening ties between the two countries could lead to diversification and expansion of investments and partnerships in fields such as technology, innovation (AI), agriculture, and healthcare. This would boost Israeli exports to China's vast market and help position Israel as a regional power. Furthermore, closer relations and a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could influence other countries in the Global South and improve Israel's standing in their eyes. China's real politics Looking from a broad Chinese vantage point, it is evident that China's diplomatic pivot is a sophisticated and calculated move—another layer in its global geopolitical strategy. Beyond expanding its political and economic influence in the Middle East, strengthening ties with Israel is expected to help China position itself as a responsible, moderate, and balanced global power—one capable of acting as a potential mediator in other regional and international conflicts (such as the dispute between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, the fight against the Houthis, and the war between Russia and Ukraine). Through this initiative, China seeks to establish its own network of bilateral and multilateral relationships that will grant it geopolitical flexibility, reduce its dependence on any single country, and enhance its status and image on the international stage. Although this shift may provoke opposition from Iran and other Muslim countries—as well as Western criticism regarding the disruption of the regional balance of power—the success of the move largely depends on how China chooses to frame its new policy. If Beijing emphasizes its pragmatic stance and clarifies that it does not aim to create a new regional security order or to replace the United States in the region, it could profoundly reshape the Middle East landscape, contribute to the regional and global geopolitical balance. Solve the daily Crossword
