Thai Baht's surge at risk from turmoil, top forecaster says
The local currency may trade at 32.30 per dollar at the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2026, said Christoper Wong, senior FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. That implies the baht would be just 0.7% stronger than its level on Monday, after surging more than 5% in the four months through June.
'In the coming months, slower tourism, subdued domestic demand, political developments and tariff uncertainty are some factors that may hinder the baht's appreciation path,' Wong said in an interview on Friday. 'Relative to other Asian peers, I'm of the view that the baht may continue to stay back-footed.'
The outlook comes as a suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office sparks concern over a delay in the new budget and economic stimulus, potentially worsening the country's already lagging growth. That may prompt the central bank to deliver deeper interest rate cuts, Wong said.
Most Asian currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months as US growth and fiscal concerns weighed on the greenback. The baht has also typically been supported by gold prices, though a recent breakdown in correlation between the two indicates that domestic issues are of a bigger concern to investors, Wong said.
Wong, who has yet to make any client-related work trips to Thailand, was the topped-ranked baht forecaster in the three months through June and the second best in the first quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ranking is based on criteria such as margin of error, timing and directional accuracy.
Investors are going to wait out how tariffs and politics play out, given that there's 'too much uncertainty to pre-position for,' Wong said.
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