A call to shift perspective: Africa's opportunity to pivot in a changing geopolitical landscape

Mail & Guardian

16-05-2025

The world is entering a new geopolitical era – one defined by retreating superpowers, restructured trade dynamics, and accelerated technological rivalries. Recently, we have seen major shifts for Africa, such as the withdrawal of USAID support and changes in tariff regimes, fueling trade wars globally. The IMF has declared that the global economic system that has operated for the past 80 years is being reset. These decisions are not isolated events; they form part of a larger trend toward de-globalisation, which is reshaping global dynamics. As Africa, we cannot ignore the calls for us to re-evaluate our roles in the world economy. These shifts reflect a broader trend toward de-globalisation that is redrawing the map of global influence and interdependence. These shifts represent not only disruption, but also a rare and timely opportunity for our continent to reassess and redefine its place in the world – a phoenix moment if navigated appropriately.
The immediate results are already visible. Cutbacks in USAID have had humanitarian consequences for nations, ranging from impact on community kitchens in Sudan, and HIV/AIDS programmes in South Africa to name a few. Beyond the short-term crisis, however, lies an important question:
how can Africa leverage this geopolitical reordering to shift from dependency to agency?
Part of the answer, as with any artful negotiation or bargaining, lies in Africa awakening to a few key fundamentals and strengths that uniquely position it as a relevant force on the global stage.
Let's start with the obvious one: our immense resource wealth. The continent holds roughly 30% of the world's critical minerals, including the second-largest manganese reserves. More relevant to current technological shifts and critical to the AI revolution, 70% of global cobalt reserves are in Africa. While rare earth elements essential for electric vehicles and semiconductors are scattered across the continent, demand for critical minerals and rare earth metals is expected to rise fourfold by 2040.
While we have a unique opportunity, the world needs critical minerals and rare earth metals more than ever before to transition to clean energy technologies, manufacture microchips for semiconductors used in military applications, and build industrial infrastructure (critical minerals are essential for the hardware driving artificial intelligence). However, we may also be in danger of missing out on the leverage and development benefits these resources offer if we fail to fully capitalise on the global shifts to leapfrog development. The difference lies in how we choose to act. Without a strategic and unified approach, we risk repeating past patterns – extracting value without retaining it, and exporting raw resources without capturing downstream benefits. The green and digital revolutions will either reinforce old dependencies or provide the continent with an opportunity to leapfrog. As these revolutions accelerate, global demand for these inputs is soaring, placing Africa once again at the centre and offering African nations unprecedented bargaining power in global supply chains.
Our continent's digital rise adds another layer to our geopolitical relevance. The expansion of data centres from Nairobi to Lagos has the potential to position Africa as a vital node in the global digital infrastructure, particularly in AI development. Rwanda's Kigali Innovation City and Kenya's Konza Technopolis are early signals of this shift, aiming to position their countries as hubs for tech innovation, AI research, and smart infrastructure. Data sovereignty, energy-efficient cloud computing, and ethical AI training practices are becoming central issues. Africa has a rare opportunity to shape these conversations by becoming a secure and strategic location for data processing, model training, and digital innovation. Investments in digital infrastructure could enable Africa to not only bypass legacy systems but also become indispensable in the global tech ecosystem. However, mineral wealth and infrastructure alone are not enough; Africa must pair them with strategic labour market advantages.
This brings us to another strength: our people. In contrast to ageing populations in the West and parts of Asia, Africa has the world's youngest population, with over 60% under the age of 25. This youth bulge has the potential to become a demographic dividend, but only if it is harnessed correctly. Africa's youth can drive innovation, supply labour, and fuel consumption. However, this potential is not guaranteed. It requires intentional investment in education, vocational training, and entrepreneurship to turn the youth bulge into a global competitive advantage.
Africa's pivot must be framed within the broader context of intensifying global competition, particularly between the United States, China, and the European Union. Trade wars, technology embargoes, and competing development models have disrupted traditional economic alliances. These rivalries present both risks and rewards for African nations. On the one hand, they could destabilise existing trade flows; on the other, they create an opening to renegotiate Africa's terms of engagement with global powers.
Both China and the United States are seeking new allies and markets. In this context – and in keeping with the theme of negotiation – Africa must move beyond the role of passive partner to become a savvy negotiator in this evolving landscape. This means negotiating not as recipients of aid or investment, but as equal partners with assets the world needs. It also requires shifting from a fragmented continent of 55 countries to a cohesive bloc capable of driving its own agenda.
This is precisely where the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) becomes mission-critical. AfCFTA is the most ambitious trade integration effort on the continent in decades, aiming to connect over 1.4 billion people in a single market. It is expected to boost intra-African trade by over 52% through the elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Leaders at the World Economic Forum have also called for AfCFTA to be integrated into Africa's green and digital transformation strategies, positioning it as a framework for not only trade but also innovation, energy, and resilience. Today, regional integration is more important than ever, providing scale, bargaining power, and a path to self-reliance.
If implemented effectively, AfCFTA could unlock the industrialisation Africa has long sought, create value chains that stay on the continent, and enhance resilience against external shocks. It has the potential to bridge Africa's untapped potential with its prosperity, becoming the most powerful platform to shift from historical disadvantage to global relevance.
In this context, the upcoming G20 Summit, hosted by South Africa in 2025, marks a critical turning point. It offers Africa the opportunity to present a unified voice, advocate for reforms in multilateral institutions, and advance a narrative defined by strength, opportunity, and partnership, not by deficit or need, showcasing Africa's growing relevance in the global economy. President Cyril Ramaphosa has indicated that inclusive growth and industrialisation will headline the agenda. However, the real impact will depend on whether African leaders can align behind a clear, actionable strategy with measurable outcomes.
While the shifting world order may seem destabilising at first glance, for Africa, it represents a moment of unprecedented opportunity. With the right investments in human capital, infrastructure, and negotiation capabilities, the continent can move from the margins of global decision-making to the centre.
The time to act is now. The tools are available; what is needed is a bold vision, clarity of purpose, and coordinated action. This is Africa's moment to pivot.