Reform set to overtake Scottish Labour in Holyrood, polling finds

The National

07-05-2025

Nigel Farage's party are set to take 19% on the constituency ballot and 20% on the regional list, research by Survation has found, putting them in second place behind the SNP.
Seat projections show there would be an independence majority with 66 Yes MSPs elected if these figures were borne out.
Scottish Labour are neck and neck with Reform in the constituency ballot but slip behind on the regional list where they are expected to pick up 18%.
The polling, commissioned by True North Advisors, showed that the SNP could expect to pick up 33% of the constituency vote.
The results for the Tories are bruising, with Russell Findlay's troops expected to pick up just 11% on the constituency ballot.
And the research found that both sides of the constitutional divide remain roughly equal in terms of support, with Yes on 49% and No on 51%.
Projections from Prof Sir John Curtice on these figures would return the SNP on 58 seats, Labour on 18 and the Conservatives on 13. Reform would move into second place as the main opposition party on 21 seats, with the Lib Dems and Greens on 10 and eight seats respectively.
READ MORE: Indyref2 possible if SNP 'do really well' in Holyrood elections, John Swinney says
He said: "After its success in last week's English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives' and Labour's prospects at Holyrood, too.
'More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year's Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.
'As a result, Reform's poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20% for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.
'The fracturing of the Unionist vote is good news for John Swinney. Even though the party's share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood's first past the post seats, and as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.
(Image: Andrew Milligan/PA)
'Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland's politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK.'
Fergus Mutch, managing partner of True North, added: "The SNP remains, by some distance, the largest party but will have to look to other parties for the support needed to secure a working majority.
'The party of independence will, however, be asking itself why its electoral support lags so far behind the 49% of voters who wish to see Scotland go it alone.
'Reform UK, buoyed by their recent success in English local elections, are nipping at Labour's heels on the constituency vote in Scotland and now a nose ahead on the list.
'Converting these figures into seats, we're at a tipping point where they emerge as the second party in Scottish politics heading into a May 2026 election – representing a significant breakthrough north of the border."
Mutch blamed the "woes" of UK Labour for the Scottish branch's poor performance in opinion polling.