THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Stream Clayton Kershaw; fade and trade TJ Friedl

New York Times

16-06-2025

Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions.
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THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
This week's iteration suggests streaming Clayton Kershaw, trading TJ Friedl and acquiring Adley Rutschman. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it.
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. These players are rostered at 50% or less in 12-team, mixed-league roto formats with 23-player rosters.
For example, Alejandro Kirk's YTD value has been $12.00, but THE BAT X projects that from now until the end of the year, he'll perform at a $14.40 value. To date, the Blue Jays' catcher has a .316 batting average, with an expected average nearly as high at .308 (96th percentile). His Hard-Hit% (56.5), Squared-Up% (35.7) and strikeout rate (10.4) are all 96th-percentile or better. And THE BAT X thinks he'll improve. If he's still on waivers, grab him now. Two Boston Red Sox players (Carlos Narváez and Trevor Story) also make the list this week, following Rafael Devers' departure to San Francisco.
On the pitching side, Ben Brown, Reese Olson and Max Scherzer are still the top three pitchers to target based on their projected rest-of-season values, but there are some new names toward the bottom of this list.
Dodgers' lefty Alex Vesia is 2-0 with three saves in 30 innings pitched and carries a 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through the season so far. His xERA is higher at 3.38, but his K rate of 35.6 is in the 96th percentile, and his Chase% and Whiff% hover around the 85th percentile. He relies heavily on his four-seamer and slider, while occasionally mixing in a changeup, and those are the only three pitches he's thrown this year, but they've all been pretty effective. Last season, in 66.1 IP, Vesia was 5-4 with five saves and a 1.76 ERA. He's barely rostered, and THE BAT X projects improved value.
Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Shortstop Jacob Wilson remains atop this list, and while his YTD value of $31.30 is still incredible, it has declined over $2 since last week, and THE BAT X projects a ROS value of $2.30. Projection systems are less accurate with players newer to the league, as there is less of a 'mean' or average to refer to. However, while Wilson is still hitting .367, his Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, bat speed and average exit velocity are in the bottom 8% (or lower) of the league. More regression could be on the way. Compare Wilson's TYD and ROS values to those on the trade targets list below to see if there's a valuable trade waiting to happen.
According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Mets' lefty David Peterson is 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA, but his xERA is 3.65, he's getting hit hard, and his K and BB rates are middling. Peterson's fastball velocity is in the 14th percentile, and the four-seamer comes with an xBA of .344, but he has an arsenal of five pitches, the best of which has been his slider. He's highly rostered and hot, having just pitched a nine-inning shutout against the Nationals on June 11, making him great trade bait, but he's slated for two games this week (at Atlanta, at Philadelphia), so maybe hold for one more week before triggering a trade.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are any deals to be made.
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For example, catcher Rutschman has steadily improved since April, and THE BAT X projects that his ROS value is $18.10, which is higher than that of Wilson, Friedl, Spencer Torkelson, Josh Naylor and even Seiya Suzuki. If you're desperate for a catcher, Rutschman's slow start may work to your benefit. While he's only hitting .232, his xBA is .267, his xSLG is .469, and his xwOBA is .360. He's not chasing or striking out, and he is walking, so he could certainly become more valuable as the season progresses.
While it may be hard to believe that Rutschman could outperform Suzuki for the rest of the season, based on the year-to-date numbers, remember that THE BAT X has been one of the most accurate projection systems for five years. Everyone else's disbelief in the projections can be your benefit. I'm not saying to ship Suzuki for Rutschman, only that some of these hard-to-believe instances are what make THE BAT X so valuable.
As for pitchers, Statcast says Dylan Cease has been unlucky to some degree, and his YTD value increased by $4.80 over the past week after holding the Dodgers(!) to three hits and no earned runs over seven innings on June 10. THE BAT X projects that from here forward, he'll carry a $22.30 value, so while his current value remains in the negative, consider acquiring him before it's too late. Like with hitters, compare pitchers in this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above. No one on the recommended fades list carries a ROS value higher than $20.90.
Here are hitters whose values are enhanced due to favorable pitching matchups this week. Yainer Diaz, who also happens to be on the trade targets list, will get JP Sears Monday, boosting his value by $24.90. Diaz has a YTD value of $8.60, but THE BAT X thinks his ROS value will be $24.60, and on Monday, it reaches $49.50. While Diaz has a .243 BA, his xBA is .277, and he's hit nine home runs this year on 251 PAs. He's also a catcher, which is typically a shallow position, although it's been slightly deeper this season.
Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA.
Here again, we see Wilson and Friedl, who are also on the 'Fade or Trade' list. They've been overperforming their expected stats, which often means a regression is on the horizon. Take note.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Luis Torrens tops this list and has been given more time behind the plate, but Francisco Alvarez is back from the paternity list, so Torrens can be left on waivers. Corey Seager, however, is on the 'Trade Targets' list, which makes sense.
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He's been underperforming expected stats, which makes the likelihood that he improves to THE BAT X's projected ROS value of $13.90 (compared to his YTD value of -$8.70) greater. The Rangers' shortstop has severely underproduced based on preseason projections, but one look at his Statcast metrics, and you'll see why his ROS projection is elevated. He's 89th percentile or higher in xwOBA xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. He's also in the 83rd percentile in walk rate.
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. As noted in previous weeks, the Dodgers and Yankees will often appear here due to their potent bats, but the Arizona Diamondbacks take the top spot with matchups against Toronto and Colorado. First baseman Josh Naylor, 3B Eugenio Suarez, SS Geraldo Perdomo, 2B Ketel Marte, RF Corbin Carroll and LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could fare better than usual this week.
This week, we've made some changes to our one- and two-start pitcher sections. Instead of including the top one-start pitchers for the week, we are limiting it to those players who are rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers are now ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, excluding those who have a projected negative value.
The best projected pitcher this week under 50% rostered in a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters, according to THE BAT X, is Kershaw. The Dodgers lefty is 2-0 this season with a 3.25 ERA and a slightly elevated 3.55 xERA. THE BAT X projects his ERA against Washington at 3.52. Kershaw has pitched in only 27.2 innings this year, so not all of his Statcast metrics are validated, but they're not impressive. He's being hit harder than ever, but his xBA on his four-seamer is .264, compared to .429 last year. He needs to see more action before assumptions can be made about how this season will go; however, this week, THE BAT X likes him, so if you're pitchers are struggling, consider streaming Kershaw.
Two-start pitchers are incredibly valuable in fantasy baseball weekly formats, so instead of providing the top five, we've decided to rank them, eliminating players with less than $0 value. Jesús Luzardo got back on track against the Chicago Cubs. He pitched six innings and gave up five hits and one run, striking out 10. In the two games before that, he gave up an average of 10 runs. According to The Athletic's Matt Gelb, ahead of the matchup against the Cubs, Luzardo made changes to address tipping off his pitches. It seemed to have worked, and THE BAT X ranks him seventh among two-start pitchers this week.
Based on matchups, the Giants' bullpen could perform well this week against Cleveland and a Devers-less Boston. Tyler Rogers (33.1 IP) is available on many waiver wires and has gone 3-2 with a 1.35 ERA and only a 2.05 xERA. His Statcast numbers are all red. Don't pay attention to his fastball velocity, as he doesn't throw one; instead, he relies on a sinker and slider that come with xBAs of .230 and .195, respectively.
Randy Rodriguez (30 IP) is 3-1 with a save, a 0.90 ERA and a 2.21 xERA. He gets hit a little harder, but his K rate is in the 99th percentile at 39.3%, and his walk rate is only 4.5% (93rd percentile). He's also less available than Rogers. But Camilo Doval (3-1, 32 IP) gets you saves. He's had 10 of them this year with a 1.69 ERA (but 3.19 xERA). He's on more rosters, and if he struggles at all (his Statcast numbers aren't quite as impressive), Rodriguez could get more chances for saves. But until then, it's Doval.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Clayton Kershaw: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)