Opinion: Trump's behind-the-scenes fears over Musk's betrayal
Back then — by which I mean like, three weeks ago — Musk was waving fiscal responsibility flags like a libertarian hype man, railing against Trump's reconciliation bill as a pork-stuffed monstrosity. Fast-forward to now and Elon is back at it - even as the BBB passed the Senate on Wednesday and barrels towards a final House sign-off by July Fourth - recycling the same complaints with the passion of a man who just discovered his HOA fees went up.
He's promising to bankroll a new 'America Party,' a politically ambiguous catch-all that sounds like it was named by Grok. The goal? Flood the ballot with fiscally conservative candidates and kneecap any Republican who dares vote for Trump's signature budget bonanza. In any other universe, this would be a bold, heroic stand by a billionaire against a president who was just a few episodes ago his boss and BFF.
But in our particular corner of the multiverse — where Twitter is now X, and Mar-a-Lago and Bedminster are the twin nerve centers of American life — it feels more like a subplot from 'Succession' if Logan Roy were played by a Bayonne, New Jersey, dinner theater mainstay and Kendall had a flamethrower and a fleet of satellites. But that doesn't mean the feels aren't real. Sources close to Trump describe the president as dismayed that the man he grew so close to during the campaign and in the White House has turned so publicly against him once more.
But White House advisers staunchly believe that their boss prevailed in the early battles with Musk and that Trump will win again now, with the passage of the reconciliation bill and based on their sneering confidence that Musk can no more successfully start a third party or beat Trump's candidates in Republican primaries than he could turn a Tesla into a turkey. As for Elon? Even two of his close associates share Team Trump's skepticism about his follow through on the whole third party thing. And they don't quite get the rationale for Musk's taunting a president in a manner that is more likely to further depress the value and stock price of his own companies than to derail Trump's pet legislation.
But Musk is not exactly panicking. He's playing a virtual war game on X, where every tweet is a bullet and every meme a missile. Trump, by contrast, is fighting in meat space — at rallies, in committees, through backroom threats and backhanded coercion. Musk's strategy feels more like Call of Duty; Trump's feels like Mafia Wars. Indeed, Trump is doing what Trump does best: going full scorched earth. In public appearances and via all-caps Truth Social screeds, he's casually suggesting that maybe, just maybe, Musk's citizenship isn't quite as nailed down as we think.
Elon came here with a dream… and with a lot of taxpayer subsidies, Trump winked, in the tone of a man preparing to turn Elon into AOC as a target of derision. The same guy who used to praise Elon's genius for putting rockets on Mars is now sounding like a progressive activist ranting about corporate welfare. 'DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon,' Trump said at one point in the back and forth on Tuesday, referring to the program meant to reign in government spending that Musk himself, until recently, headed.
Musk went on his own X platform and wrote in reply, 'I am literally saying CUT IT ALL. Now,' daring Trump to whack his subsidies. The billionaire later added that he could ratchet up the conflict with Trump but said, 'I will refrain for now.' So, Donald Trump, the man who wants to cut taxes for the wealthy, is now threatening to deport Elon Musk because SpaceX accepted a government contract . Somewhere, Elizabeth Warren just dropped her kombucha in delight.
And yes, she likely is in some manner cheering Musk on, at least for now. So are Freedom Caucus Congressman Chip Roy and a handful of House conservatives who agree the reconciliation bill is a Frankenstein's monster of spending. But, really, they're nodding, bobble head style, at Musk's rhetoric, even as they prepare to quietly vote for the bill anyway. Principles are nice but staying on Trump's good side and reelection are nicer. But let's be clear: this isn't just two billionaires screaming at each other across social media platforms like college freshmen beefing over a group project. These are two of the most influential people in America waging a war over the future of the Republican Party — one wielding memes and money, the other raw political control and a slavishly loyal base.
What's fascinating — okay, darkly hilarious — is that both men have real arguments. This isn't petty. It's not about who has the better Gulfstream or whose social platform has better reach. Trump's legislative package is a fiscal Rube Goldberg machine, and Musk's warning that it will balloon the debt is, on paper, more than arguably true. Trump, in turn, is right that threatening a sitting president with an Astro-funded hostile takeover of his own party isn't exactly either etiquette or a winning formula. So will anything actually happen? Probably not.
Starting a political party isn't just creating a logo and hiring Joe Rogan's cousin as communications director. It's ballot access, it's legal hurdles, it's logistics that make even Tesla's factory problems look like a childhood lemonade stand. And Trump? For all his barking, he's not exactly shaking in his gold-plated boots. His grip on the Republican Party remains tighter than the Spanx on the older attendees at CPAC. If Musk thinks he can spend his way into that kind of control, he's underestimating just how sticky the MAGA brand really is. GOP primary voters aren't exactly foaming at the mouth for a party led by the guy who tried to make Cybertruck happen.
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