National Weather Service Defends Forecasts After Texas Flooding Tragedy Sparked Criticism from Local Officials

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The devastating flooding in central Texas on July 4 led some officials to point fingers at the National Weather Service (NWS)
Defending itself, the NWS said its emergency alerts gave several hours of lead time before flooding began
Local governments were more delayed in warning residentsAfter months of rain fell in central Texas in a matter of mere hours on Friday, July 4, leading to catastrophic flooding, some local officials said the National Weather Service's forecasts were insufficient.
Now the agency is speaking out as questions continue about whether the warnings could have been more effective.
Local officials have also come under scrutiny in the media for their response; and headlines have highlighted staffing vacancies at the National Weather Service (NWS) amid the Trump administration's cutbacks on some federal government functions.
'The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spokesperson Kim Doster said in a statement shared with PEOPLE.
As of Sunday, July 6, more than 50 people have died so far, including 28 adults and 15 children, following the devastating flash floods, per NBC News, CNN and The Washington Post. The overall death toll is continually rising.
Doster said that the NWS began preparing and warning Texans in the area of the flooding to come the day before and issued emergency alerts several hours in advance.
'On July 3, the NWS office in Austin/San Antonio, TX conducted forecast briefings for emergency management in the morning and issued a Flood Watch in the early afternoon,' Doster said. 'Flash Flood Warnings were also issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before flash flooding conditions occurred.'
At a Friday news conference, Chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management W. Nim Kidd told reporters that ahead of the devastating floods, the NWS had apparently underestimated the precipitation that the affected areas would later receive.
'The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any' of the agency's forecasts, Kidd said, in part. 'Nonetheless … we have resources that have been surrounding this area since yesterday. When the rain fell, and the calls came in, we immediately jumped into action.'
According to the NOAA, warnings began as early as Thursday, July 3, with the National Water Center Flood Hazard Outlook indicating 'flash flood potential' in Kerrville, Texas, and surrounding areas.
At 1:18 p.m. local time, NWS Austin/San Antonio issued a flood watch through Friday morning.
As noted by Kidd, however, the forecast was for less rain than what later fell in the region.
The early alerts warned of as much as 5 to 7 inches of rain, less than half of the 15-inch downpour that came down in parts of central Texas, CNN reported.
The affected area is very vulnerable to flash flooding, and the most crucial alerts also arrived overnight, the worst time to get emergency warnings out to sleeping residents.
The first flash flood warning was issued on Thursday at 11:41 p.m. local time for Bandera County, according to the NOAA.
Later, the first warnings for 'life-threatening flash flooding' — which trigger cell phone emergency alerts, if users haven't disabled them — were issued for Bandera and Kerr counties in the early hours of Friday, at 1:14 a.m., the NOAA said.
The Kerr County Sheriff's Office sent the first report of flooding at low-water crossings about three hours after that, CNN reported.
A flash flood emergency was issued for the Guadalupe River — which overflowed, leading to much of the death and destruction — at 5:34 a.m. on Friday, according to the NOAA.
And while some Texas officials have pointed fingers at the NWS, local governments and authorities were more delayed in issuing warnings, according to NBC affiliate KXAN.
The Kerrville Police Department made its first post around 5:16 a.m. on Friday, hours after the NWS alerts, KXAN reported.
The department reposted NWS Austin/San Antonio's flood alert warning of a 'life threatening event' and instructed anyone 'near the Guadalupe River needs to move to higher ground now.'
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During a Friday news conference confirming multiple initial fatalities, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top official, insisted that they 'didn't know this flood was coming,' according to KXAN.
He noted that locals had faced severe weather before but were caught off guard by these rains.
He also said the county does not have a warning system in place for flooding, according to CNN.
'This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States, and we deal with floods on a regular basis — when it rains, we get water,' the judge said. 'We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what has happened here, none whatsoever.'
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