Kremlin signals efforts to sway Trump towards accepting Putin's demands
Source: an ISW report
Details: ISW analysts examined the intent behind a 30 January interview released by the Kremlin-aligned Russian news agency TASS with Fyodor Lukyanov, research director at the Valdai Discussion Club. Titled Don't count on big agreements, the interview reflects the Kremlin's continued attempts to influence both domestic and international perceptions ahead of future talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
The report notes that the Valdai Discussion Club serves as a forum where Kremlin officials, Russian scholars and foreign officials and scholars convene to discuss global affairs. The platform has long been instrumental in the Kremlin's strategy to sway Western policy in Russia's favour, ISW adds.
The ISW points out that Lukyanov, a senior member and research fellow at the Valdai Club, has repeatedly moderated Putin's annual Valdai speech and is considered an "authoritative voice" on the Kremlin's foreign policy goals and objectives, although he holds no official position in the Russian government.
It is noted that ISW is not prepared to assess or claim that Lukyanov has reliable information about Putin's mood or intentions for future peace talks, "but Lukyanov's statements in this interview are generally consistent with Putin's and other Kremlin officials' statements about Russia's future negotiating positions".
Quote from ISW: "TASS' decision to leverage Lukyanov's interview to dampen domestic speculation about the possibility of a peace agreement in the near future also highlights the relevance of this interview and Lukyanov's statements when considering Russia's possible negotiating positions vis-a-vis Ukraine and the United States."
Details: In the interview, Lukyanov claimed that the key issue in future peace talks on Ukraine is "not the territories" but the "root causes" of the war, which he attributed to NATO's eastward expansion in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Lukyanov claimed that with regard to Ukrainian lands, Russian forces now believe that "with the territories, everything is clear: how much you take is yours," reinforcing the notion that the Kremlin has no intention of negotiating over its territorial occupations in Ukraine during future peace talks.
Lukyanov remarked that "Trump only respects those who show steadfastness" and urged the Kremlin to "never give in" and brace for a "fairly tough conversation, even including elements of [a] bluff," calling on Putin to demonstrate his resolve in future talks with Trump.
Quote from ISW: "Lukyanov's interview supports the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to force Trump into acquiescing to Putin's demands that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation and the weakening of NATO and Putin's personal efforts to position himself as Trump's equal on the international stage."Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on 30 January entitled Don't count on big agreements, highlighting the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about future negotiations between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
Lukyanov stated during the interview that the "main thing" for future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine is "not the territories" but addressing the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov defined as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.
People's Republic of China (PRC)-based companies continue to supply Russia with critical materials needed to sustain Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on 28 January defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously outlined.
The US military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Kurakhove and in the Dnipro direction.
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