Starmer crackdown will only cut migration to pre-Brexit levels

Telegraph

12-05-2025

Net migration could be 250,000 a year even after Sir Keir Starmer's crackdown, the Government's chief migration adviser has said.
The Prime Minister unveiled a white paper on Monday that will reduce the number of foreign workers and students coming to the UK by 98,000 a year, Home Office analysis suggests.
Net migration – which stands at 720,000 – is forecast to fall to about 340,000 from 2028 as a result of measures that are already in place, according to the Office of National Statistics.
Professor Brian Bell, the chairman of the migration advisory committee, suggested that Labour's plans could therefore reduce net migration to 'under 300,000 and probably closer to 250,000 in the next few years'.
This would still be above the average of 200,000 in the 2010s and the pre-Brexit total of 224,000 in 2019 when Boris Johnson, then the prime minister, pledged to 'take back control of our borders' and reduce migration.
It subsequently rocketed to a high of more than 900,000 in the year ending June 2023. Sir Keir has refused to set a cap on net migration, but Prof Bell said Labour's plans would result in a 60,000 to 70,000 cut to the figure when factors such as foreign workers and students remaining in the UK were taken into account.
Releasing the white paper from Downing Street, Sir Keir echoed his predecessor's pledge by saying that Labour would 'take back control of our borders' with tougher rules on immigration. He warned that without them, the UK risked becoming an 'island of strangers'.
Sir Keir described the record levels of immigration under the Tories as a 'squalid chapter' for politics as he promised to 'significantly' reduce net migration by the end of the Parliament. However, he said it was 'not sensible' to put a 'hard-edge cap' on it as previous prime ministers had done and failed to achieve.
Reform UK and the Tories have pledged unspecified caps on net migration and on Monday the parties accused Labour of failing to go far enough in reducing immigration.
Some Labour MPs also criticised Sir Keir's rhetoric. Nadia Whittome, the Labour MP for Nottingham East, said the 'step-up in anti-migrant rhetoric from the Government is shameful and dangerous', while Sarah Owen, the Labour chairman of the women and equalities select committee, said 'chasing the tail of the Right' could put the UK on 'a very dark path'.
Under Labour's plans, foreign students will be allowed to stay in the UK for 18 months after their studies before having to get a skilled work visa, down from two years currently. Universities will also face a 6 per cent tax on their £12 billion income from foreign students.
Employers could be barred from hiring foreign workers if they fail to train up domestic workers in their sectors. Migrant workers will only be able to come to the UK for graduate-level jobs, except in a very limited number of shortage occupations for temporary, time-limited periods.
All migrants will be required to learn a higher standard of English, including adult dependents, as part of efforts to boost integration and cohesion in society.
Automatic settlement and citizenship rights after five years will end and be extended to up to 10 years, although ministers refused to say on Monday if this would apply to migrants already in the UK.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said Labour's immigration plan was 'weak and ineffective'. 'It goes nothing like far enough to dramatically reduce immigration,' he said.
He said the Tory party's proposed legally binding cap on net migration had to be 'properly worked through' before it was announced, but pledged it would be 'a lot, lot lower' than the current projections of 340,000.
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, said there would still be 'massive loopholes' in the immigration system under Labour's reforms and that net migration would still run at 'many hundreds of thousands a year'.
Interviewed on Sky News, he said he would allow some essential migration in areas with skill shortages but that numbers would be capped.
Prof Bell said ministers were right to be 'sceptical' about predicting net migration as estimates could end up 100,000 higher or lower than the eventual figure. However, it was 'reasonable' to believe the measures could take net migration towards 250,000.
He warned it would 'not be easy' to reduce migration significantly further as there were only four groups to target. Two – asylum seekers and family reunions – were 'really difficult' to reduce unless the Government changed its obligations under international treaties like the Refugee Convention.
On work visas, he said the Government could go further by extending the restrictions on foreign worker recruitment to graduate professions such as civil engineers or accountants. Ministers could cut the time limit for graduates to below 18 months and only allow them to remain in the UK if they got a graduate-level job.
Home Office sources said there would be further measures to reduce immigration including new workplace strategies to boost training and employment of UK workers.
'This is really important first step, but I wouldn't say this is the totality of the Government's efforts to reduce net migration,' they said.