Dalai Lama nears 90th birthday: Who will choose the next Buddhist leader?

Business Standard

01-07-2025

As the Dalai Lama turns 90 on July 6, the question of who will succeed him is gaining urgency, not only for Tibetan Buddhists but also for global leaders and devotees.
The Dalai Lamas are believed to be manifestations of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion, forming a six-century-old spiritual lineage rooted in reincarnation.
The 14th Dalai Lama, born Lhamo Dhondup in 1935 in Tibet, was identified at age two as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama. Recognised through traditional signs and rituals, he was enthroned at just four-and-a-half.
Traditionally, high-ranking monks identify the next Dalai Lama based on visions, signs, and a child's ability to recognise the previous Dalai Lama's belongings. The current Dalai Lama was found using this method in eastern Tibet and was officially recognised after correctly identifying several items.
However, more recently, the traditional process for identifying the next Dalai Lama seems to now be entangled in political agendas.
How is the Dalai Lama chosen?
The traditional process is spiritual and symbolic. It involves:
Prophetic dreams or visions by senior lamas
Signs in nature, such as the direction of smoke from a cremation
Oracles and rituals at sacred lakes
A search party sent to regions where signs point
Testing of young children, looking for one who can recognise the possessions of the previous Dalai Lama
China insists on picking a successor
Despite the traditions dating back 600 years, the Chinese government insists it has the authority to control this process. Since its occupation of Tibet in 1950, China has claimed the final say in selecting Tibetan religious leaders.
These claims have been strongly rejected by the Buddhist community. In 2017, the Dalai Lama said that to choose his successor, the Chinese government would first need to embrace the concept of rebirth, which goes against the country's atheist leadership. He added that no one can predict where or when the next Dalai Lama will appear.
However, in his recently published book 'Voice of the Voiceless', the spiritual leader shared with certainty that the 15th Dalai Lama would be born in the "free world" and not China.
According to Tibetan Buddhist belief, the soul of a lama is reincarnated into a child after death, a sacred tradition that remains outside the purview of political authority.
In 1995, Beijing rejected the Dalai Lama's choice for the Panchen Lama, another high-ranking reincarnated lama whose role traditionally includes recognising the Dalai Lama's next incarnation, and installed its own candidate. The child chosen by the Dalai Lama disappeared from public view shortly after and is believed to be held under Chinese custody.
A successor outside of China?
In response to the Chinese government, the Dalai Lama has said the institution might end altogether if people no longer see it as useful. He's also suggested he could name his reincarnation before his death or that the next Dalai Lama could be born outside Chinese control. He's even floated the idea of a female Dalai Lama, though controversially joked she should be 'very attractive'.
India's role, US stance
India currently hosts the Tibetan government-in-exile and thousands of Tibetan refugees, which has become a point of tension in its already strained relationship with China.
The United States, meanwhile, has passed laws stating it will not recognise any Dalai Lama chosen by the Chinese government and has called on Beijing to restart talks with Tibetan leaders.
Dalai Lama to offer clarity on succession
As his 90th birthday nears, the Dalai Lama has said he will offer more clarity about the succession. Behind the scenes, his foundation, senior monks, and the Central Tibetan Administration (Tibet's government-in-exile) are expected to help guide the process, whether it follows tradition, adapts it, or breaks it entirely.