Best Buy downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
The bond market is on edge as Trump's threat to fire Powell resurfaces
The bond market remains on edge after multiple outlets reported that President Trump was seriously considering firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — only for the president to downplay the possibility as stocks fell and Treasury yields jumped. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed near 4.8% after the headlines started to percolate, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) surged above the critical 5% threshold. Later, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump appeared to soften his stance, saying he's "not talking about" firing Powell and pointing out that Powell's term ends in May. Still, yields remained elevated, underscoring the market's unease over potential political interference at the Fed. Notably, the Trump administration has been highly sensitive to movements in the bond market, keeping a close watch on the 10-year Treasury yield. According to Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily, the 10-year yield is still trading within a reasonable range, but there are key levels to watch. "We would prefer to see TNX not test 4.6% or higher," Tentarelli said on Tuesday, noting that technical indicators still suggest an upward bias in yields, even within a defined range. And as the chart below from Piper Sandler illustrates, 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% have historically posed headwinds for US equities, specially for rate-sensitive and low-growth sectors. Yields' warning signal Bond prices move inversely to yields, so rising yields suggest investors are selling bonds. One catalyst behind the recent move, as Wednesday's reaction made clear, has been renewed concern over the Federal Reserve's independence, with political pressure on the central bank stoking fears about US economic stability. The US dollar also fell on the speculation, reflecting broader market unease. The idea that the bond market itself serves as a check on political interference at the Fed was echoed by Jon Hilsenrath, senior adviser at StoneX and longtime Fed watcher. "Ultimately I think that the people who are going to decide whether Jay Powell keeps his job or not are in the bond market," he told Yahoo Finance. "What we saw back in April, when the president was threatening to fire Powell, was bond yields rose. People were concerned about the stability and independence of the Fed, and the administration backed off." Another driver of rising yields: expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated. When rate cuts are off the table, there's less urgency to lock in current yields, and investors may choose to reallocate capital elsewhere. Rising inflation, often the reason rates stay elevated, also pushes yields higher, as investors demand greater compensation for eroding purchasing power. All of these forces were at play this week. Earlier on Wednesday, yields edged lower after a softer-than-expected reading on wholesale prices (PPI) added to a string of mixed signals on the inflation front. The day before, yields surged following a firmer-than-expected CPI print that prompted markets to reassess the Fed's rate-cutting path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool the probability of a September rate cut has now slipped below 60%, compared to nearly 70% just one week ago. "We expect the Federal Reserve to remain on pause until December as the upward pressure on core goods prices becomes more apparent," Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. Core goods prices within PPI rose 0.2% in June, a potential early sign that tariffs are starting to filter through the economy. Categories like household furnishings and appliances, which are more exposed to trade policy, saw some of the largest price increases. By contrast, apparel and toys remained mostly flat. "There is a lag between tariffs and when they begin to influence businesses' pricing behavior," Martin said. "For example, wholesale prices for used vehicles began to climb in late April, but it will take a couple of months for that to appear in consumer prices." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
The bond market is on edge as Trump's Powell threats resurface
The bond market remains on edge after multiple outlets reported that President Trump was seriously considering firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — only for the president to downplay the possibility as stocks fell and Treasury yields jumped. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) climbed near 4.8% after the headlines started to percolate, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) surged above the critical 5% threshold. Later, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump appeared to soften his stance, saying he's "not talking about" firing Powell and pointing out that Powell's term ends in May. Still, yields remained elevated, underscoring the market's unease over potential political interference at the Fed. Notably, the Trump administration has been highly sensitive to movements in the bond market, keeping a close watch on the 10-year Treasury yield. According to Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily, the 10-year yield is still trading within a reasonable range but there are key levels to watch. "We would prefer to see TNX not test 4.6% or higher," Tentarelli said on Tuesday, noting that technical indicators still suggest an upward bias in yields, even within a defined range. And as the chart below from Piper Sandler illustrates, 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% have historically posed headwinds for US equities, specially for rate-sensitive and low-growth sectors. Yields' warning signal Bond prices move inversely to yields, so rising yields suggest investors are selling bonds. One catalyst behind the recent move, as Wednesday's reaction made clear, has been renewed concern over the Federal Reserve's independence, with political pressure on the central bank stoking fears about US economic stability. The US dollar also fell on the speculation, reflecting broader market unease. The idea that the bond market itself serves as a check on political interference at the Fed was echoed by Jon Hilsenrath, senior adviser at StoneX and longtime Fed watcher. "Ultimately I think that the people who are going to decide whether Jay Powell keeps his job or not are in the bond market," he told Yahoo Finance. "What we saw back in April, when the president was threatening to fire Powell, was bond yields rose. People were concerned about the stability and independence of the Fed, and the administration backed off." Another driver of rising yields: expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated. When rate cuts are off the table, there's less urgency to lock in current yields, and investors may choose to reallocate capital elsewhere. Rising inflation, often the reason rates stay elevated, also pushes yields higher, as investors demand greater compensation for eroding purchasing power. All of these forces were at play this week. Earlier on Wednesday, yields edged lower after a softer-than-expected reading on wholesale prices (PPI) added to a string of mixed signals on the inflation front. The day before, yields surged following a firmer-than-expected CPI print that prompted markets to reassess the Fed's rate-cutting path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool the probability of a September rate cut has now slipped below 60%, compared to nearly 70% just one week ago. "We expect the Federal Reserve to remain on pause until December as the upward pressure on core goods prices becomes more apparent," Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. Core goods prices within PPI rose 0.2% in June, a potential early sign that tariffs are starting to filter through the economy. Categories like household furnishings and appliances, which are more exposed to trade policy, saw some of the largest price increases. By contrast, apparel and toys remained mostly flat. "There is a lag between tariffs and when they begin to influence businesses' pricing behavior," Martin said. "For example, wholesale prices for used vehicles began to climb in late April, but it will take a couple of months for that to appear in consumer prices." Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at
The Verge
an hour ago
- The Verge
The 13-inch M2 MacBook Air is a great back-to-school deal at just $699
It's almost back to school season, and we're starting to see some great laptop deals trickle in as a result. Walmart continues to sell the M1-powered MacBook Air for $599, but if you want more power and a sleeker design, the 13-inch M2-powered MacBook Air starts at just $699 ($100 off) from Best Buy. That's its best price to date, and it's available on the configuration that offers 256GB of storage and 16GB of RAM, double what's in the base M1 model. The M2-powered MacBook Air remains an excellent jack-of-all-trades, with more than enough power for work, casual gaming, and even a bit of light video editing. It also brings a few welcome upgrades over the M1 model, including faster performance and a much better 1080p webcam that's noticeably sharper. Design-wise, it's thinner and lighter, with slimmer bezels and a brighter, slightly bigger display. It also includes an improved keyboard and a MagSafe port for charging, while retaining features like a long battery life that should last a full work day. That said, as an older laptop, you'll miss out on newer features. Apple's latest MacBook Air runs on a more powerful chip, for one thing, can connect to two external displays as opposed to just one, and offers an even more impressive 12-megapixel Center Stage webcam. But if all you care about is buying a fast, reliable laptop for everyday work and play, the M2-MacBook Air is a great investment to make at this 2022 MacBook Air is a thin, lightweight device powered by Apple's M2 chip. The M2 model touts an improved 1080p webcam and a better display than its predecessor, while retaining features like long battery life and MagSafe charging. Read our review. Sign up for Verge Deals to get deals on products we've tested sent to your inbox weekly.
