U.S. inflation may have worsened last month as Trump's tariffs start to bite
Consumer prices probably rose 2.6% last month from a year ago, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May, according to data provider FactSet. The Labor Department will issue its inflation report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. On a monthly basis, prices likely rose 0.3% from May to June, the largest increase since January, economists project.
Worsening inflation could pose a political challenge for President Donald Trump, who promised during last year's presidential campaign to immediately lower costs. The sharp inflation spike of 2022-2023 was the worst in four decades and soured most Americans on former president Joe Biden's handling of the economy.
Faster price increases would also likely underscore the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut its short-term interest rate, as Trump is loudly demanding.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, inflation is forecast to have risen 3% in June from a year earlier, up from a 2.8% rise in May. On a monthly basis, it is also expected to have picked up 0.3% from May to June, according to FactSet. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.
Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports, plus 50% levies on steel and aluminum, 30% on goods from China, and 25% on imported cars. Just last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1.
So far, the tariffs haven't noticeably pushed up inflation, which has been mild for the past four months. Core inflation has fallen from 3.3% in January to 2.8% in May, though that is still above the Fed's 2% target. If inflation in June is much weaker than economists forecast, Trump will likely renew his demands that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell immediately reduce borrowing costs.
Powell and other Fed officials have emphasized that they want to see how the economy evolves as the tariffs take effect before cutting their key short-term rate. The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them.
Trump on Monday said that Powell has been 'terrible' and 'doesn't know what the hell he's doing.' The president added that the economy was doing well despite Powell's refusal to reduce rates, but it would be 'nice' if there were rate cuts 'because people would be able to buy housing a lot easier.'
Last week, White House officials also attacked Powell for cost overruns on the years-long renovation of two Fed buildings, which are now slated to cost $2.5 billion, roughly one-third more than originally budgeted. While Trump legally can't fire Powell just because he disagrees with his interest rate decisions, the Supreme Court has signaled, he may be able to do so 'for cause,' such as misconduct or mismanagement.
While inflation was mild in May, there were already signs in last month's report that tariffs were starting to have some impact. The cost of furniture, appliances, toys, and tools rose, though those increases were offset by falling prices for airfares, hotels, and muted rises in rental costs.
Some companies have said they have or plan to raise prices as a result of the tariffs, including Walmart, the world's largest retailer. Automaker Mitsubishi said last month that it was lifting prices by an average of 2.1% in response to the duties, and Nike has said it would implement 'surgical' price hikes to offset tariff costs.
But many companies have been able to postpone or avoid price increases, after building up their stockpiles of goods this spring to get ahead of the duties. Other companies may have refrained from lifting prices while they wait to see whether the U.S. is able to reach trade deals with other countries that lower the duties.
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Globe and Mail
15 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge
WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month. Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who promised during last year's presidential campaign to immediately lower costs only to engage in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have left businesses and consumers worried. Trump has already declared that the U.S. effectively has no more inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates. Yet the bump in inflation last month makes it more likely that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at the central bank's next meeting in two weeks. Powell has said that he wants to see how the economy reacts to Trump's duties before reducing borrowing costs. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core inflation increased 2.9% in June from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in May. On a monthly basis, it picked up 0.2% from May to June. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed. The uptick in inflation was driven by a range of higher prices. The cost of gasoline rose 1% just from May to June, while grocery prices increased 0.3%. Appliance prices jumped for the third straight month. Toys, clothes, audio equipment, shoes, and sporting goods all got more expensive, and are all heavily imported. 'You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in,' said Eric Winograd, chief economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, who added that the cost of long-lasting goods rose last month, compared with a year ago, for the first time in about three years. Winograd also noted that housing costs, one of the biggest drivers of inflation since the pandemic, has continued to cool, which is holding down broader inflation. The cost of rent rose 3.8% in June compared with a year ago, the smallest yearly increase since late 2021. 'Were it not for the tariff uncertainty, the Fed would already be cutting rates,' Winograd said. 'The question is whether there is more to come, and the Fed clearly thinks there is,' along with most economists. Stock prices were mixed early, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rising and the Dow Jones falling 154 points. Some investors were cheered by the fact that core prices rose less than forecast. Some items got cheaper last month, including new and used cars, hotel rooms, and air fares. Travel prices have generally declined in recent months as fewer international tourists visit the U.S. The report set up a broader political battle over Trump's tariffs, a fight that will ultimately be determined by how the U.S. public feels about their cost of living and whether the president is making good on his 2024 promise that his agenda would help the middle class. The White House pushed back on claims that the report showed a negative impact from tariffs, since the cost of new cars were down despite the 25% tariffs on autos and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The administration also noted that despite the June bump in apparel prices, clothing prices are still cheaper than they were three months ago. 'Consumer Prices LOW,' Trump posted on Truth Social. 'Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!' For Democratic lawmakers, the inflation report confirmed their warnings over the past several months that Trump's tariffs would push up inflation. Their argument on Tuesday was that the situation will likely get even more painful given the size of the tariff rates in the letters that Trump posted over the past week. 'For those saying we have not seen the impact of Trump's tariff wars, look at today's data. Americans continue to struggle with the costs of groceries and rent — and now prices of food and appliances are rising,' said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. "Families were already getting crushed, and the president's making it worse.' Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports plus 30% on goods from China. Just last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1. He has also threatened to slap 50% duties on Brazil, which would push up the cost of orange juice and coffee. Orange prices leaped 3.5% just from May to June, and are 3.4% higher than a year ago, the government said Tuesday. Overall, grocery prices rose 0.3% last month and are up 2.4% from a year earlier. While that is a much smaller annual increase than before the pandemic, it is slightly bigger than the pre-pandemic pace of food price increases. The Trump administration has also placed a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes. The acceleration in inflation could provide a respite of sorts for Fed Chair Powell, who has come under increasingly heavy fire from the White House for not cutting the benchmark interest rate. The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them. Trump on Monday said that Powell has been 'terrible' and 'doesn't know what the hell he's doing.' The president added that the economy was doing well despite Powell's refusal to reduce rates, but it would be 'nice' if there were rate cuts 'because people would be able to buy housing a lot easier.' Last week, White House officials also attacked Powell for cost overruns on the years-long renovation of two Fed buildings, which are now slated to cost $2.5 billion, roughly one-third more than originally budgeted. While Trump legally can't fire Powell just because he disagrees with his interest rate decisions, the Supreme Court has signaled, he may be able to do so 'for cause,' such as misconduct or mismanagement. Some companies have said they have or plan to raise prices as a result of the tariffs, including Walmart, the world's largest retailer. Automaker Mitsubishi said last month that it was lifting prices by an average of 2.1% in response to the duties, and Nike has said it would implement 'surgical' price hikes to offset tariff costs. But many companies have been able to postpone or avoid price increases, after building up their stockpiles of goods this spring to get ahead of the duties. Other firms may have refrained from lifting prices while they wait to see whether the U.S. is able to reach trade deals with other countries that lower the duties.
Cision Canada
38 minutes ago
- Cision Canada
AI's Power Hunger Collides with America's Oil Patch in a High-Stakes Energy Rush
Issued on behalf of Prairie Operating Co. VANCOUVER, BC, July 15, 2025 /CNW/ -- Thanks to the rise of more and more AI data centers, the USA is faced with a very real threat in terms of surging demand for electricity, causing a renewed fascination with utilities. A new DOE reliability study warns that, if firm capacity keeps retiring while AI-driven load soars, the annual risk of power outages could jump by "a factor of one-hundred" as soon as 2030. And while there's talk about nuclear power emerging as a clean AI data center energy source, oil and gas is being touted as a medium-term interim solution. Citing "very strong" oil demand in Q3, OPEC announced its plan to ramp up oil output, amid expectations of a near-term tight supply-demand balance. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2025 projects US crude oil and natural gas production growth to remain relatively high through 2030. This has all culminated in increased market attention to oil and gas stocks that are thriving and adding countless barrels of production, including updates from Prairie Operating Co. (NASDAQ: PROP), Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE: PR), Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR), Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD), and Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG). After the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimated it would take $20 billion and years to accomplish President Trump's goal of refilling the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its maximum capacity. As power utilities providers seek higher prices for their products based on rising AI demands, the need for domestically sourced energy also grows. Prairie Operating Co. (NASDAQ: PROP) may not yet be a household name, but the Houston-based driller has spent the past four months methodically expanding its Denver–Julesburg (DJ) Basin platform while locking in the kind of capital discipline retail investors usually want to see. In its most recent move, Prairie paid $12.5 million for a bolt-on slice of Edge Energy acreage. The deal added roughly 11,000 net acres, 190 Boe/d of existing output, and forty drill-ready locations. "This strategic and highly accretive bolt-on acquisition enhances our existing footprint in the DJ Basin," said Edward Kovalik, Chairman and CEO of Prairie. "With a high working interest, established cash flow, and development-ready drilling locations, this transaction aligns with our capital allocation strategy and adds near-term value and long-term inventory." Management financed the purchase with its credit facility, so no new shares were issued. That flexibility exists because back in June, Prairie reaffirmed it had secured a $1 billion reserve-based lending facility led by Citibank. On 9 June the bank group, which now includes Bank of America and West Texas National, reaffirmed the $475 million borrowing base after reviewing the company's enlarged reserves. Operations are moving just as quickly. In late April, Prairie began completing nine drilled-but-uncompleted Opal Coalbank wells that are expected to reach first oil this summer. Those wells line up behind the 11-well Rusch Pad, spud on 1 April, which alternates two-mile laterals in the Niobrara and Codell zones. Initial production from Rusch is scheduled for early August, giving investors two near-term volume catalysts. To protect cash flow while new pads ramp, the company hedged about 85% of 2025 production at $68.27 WTI and $4.28 Henry Hub and extended smaller strips through the first quarter of 2028. When Prairie last updated the market, that hedge book was roughly $70 million in the money, creating a visible floor under future earnings. "Our hedging strategy is a powerful example of how we're executing our broader growth plan with discipline and foresight," said Kovalik. "We've protected cash flows, reduced risk, and positioned the Company to accelerate growth while delivering long-term shareholder value." The current build-out rests on a $602.8 million acquisition from Bayswater Exploration that closed in late March. That transaction lifted Prairie's daily output by roughly 25 700 Boe, added 77.9 MMBoe of proved reserves, and delivered more than six-hundred future drilling locations across twenty-four-thousand acres. The price equaled less than 0.7 times proved PV-10, leaving tangible asset support under the stock. "The addition of the Bayswater Assets further establishes Prairie as a leading operator in the DJ Basin," said Gary Hanna, President of Prairie. "These assets are a strong complement to our existing portfolio, and we remain focused on maximizing operational efficiencies, optimizing production, and delivering sustainable growth for shareholders." Today Prairie controls about 60,000 net DJ acres, more than 550 economic locations, and a leverage ratio near one-times EBITDA. Liquids should represent roughly seventy percent of production, a favorable mix at a time when AI-driven electricity demand is pushing both crude and associated-gas requirements higher. With the first Opal Coalbank and Rusch barrels expected in the near term, investors will soon see whether the model delivers on schedule. In other recent industry developments and happenings in the market include: Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE: PR) recently closed a $608 million bolt-on in Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico, adding 13,320 net acres, 12,000 Boe/d of low-decline output and more than 100 two-mile locations that breakeven near $30 WTI. That deal follows a record first-quarter showing of 373 Boe/d production and $460 million free cash flow, which let management cut 2025 cap-ex guidance by $50 million while holding volumes flat. "As a result of the current environment, we are lowering the mid-point of our capital expenditure budget by $50 million while maintaining our full year production guidance, demonstrating the high-quality nature of our asset base," said James Walter, Co-CEO of Permian Resources. "Underpinned by high-return inventory and improved business fundamentals, we expect to deliver similar free cash flow at $60 per barrel WTI for the remainder of 2025 as we did in 2024 at $75 per barrel." With liquidity above $3 billion and leverage at 0.8× EBITDAX, PR is deploying its fortress balance sheet to scoop acreage at cycle-low pricing. Baytex Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) just secured a one-year extension of its US $1.1 billion revolving credit facilities to June 2029, preserving liquidity with no borrowing-base redeterminations. The move follows a solid first-quarter report that showed 144,194 boe/d of production (84% oil & NGL) and C$53 million of free cash flow, even after winter weather disruptions. " Baytex efficiently executed its exploration and development program and delivered first quarter results consistent with our fullyear plan," said Eric T. Greager, President and CEO of Baytex. "In a challenging operating environment marked by macroeconomic uncertainty and a volatile commodity price, we are pleased to have delivered free cash flow and returns to shareholders." Management used that cash to repurchase 3.7 million shares, pay a quarterly dividend, and trim net debt to CA $2.39 billion, signalling disciplined balance-sheet focus in a choppy price tape. Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD) delivered 153.7 Mbopd and 271 Mboe/d in Q1 2025, topping guidance and generating $290 million of free cash flow even after winter weather slowed fieldwork. Management returned 100% of that free cash flow to shareholders through a $1.30 base dividend and $216.5 million of buybacks at an average $108.54 per share. "Our compelling asset base and proficient execution continue to support high levels of shareholder distributions, with 100% of free cash flow returned to shareholders for the second consecutive quarter," said Danny Brown, President and CEO of Chord Energy. "Our premier Williston Basin position, built with a focus on disciplined capital allocation, early adoption of new technologies, and strategic M&A, puts Chord in a strong position to weather commodity down cycles." The company also issued $750 million of 6.75% 2033 notes, pushing liquidity to $1.9 billion while keeping leverage at just 0.3× EBITDAX. In June, Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) raised about $211 million by reopening its 3.625% convertible notes due 2029, then used part of the proceeds for a $35 million accelerated share repurchase and to fund capped-call transactions that lift the effective conversion price above $50 per share. " NOG is pleased to have successfully completed the issuance of an additional $200 million of our 2029 Convertible Notes, which further bolsters our liquidity, enhances our debt maturity schedule and reduces our cost of capital, all while executing an accelerated share repurchase," said Nick O'Grady, CEO of Northern Oil & Gas. "This enhances the Company's competitive position in a volatile market backdrop and should allow us to pursue accretive countercyclical investments." After fees and capped-call costs, management expects a $152 million boost to liquidity and roughly $5 million in annual interest and dividend savings, improving its debt-maturity profile without equity dilution. Six weeks earlier, NOG's semi-annual redetermination expanded committed capacity on its revolver to $1.6 billion while the $1.8 billion borrowing base remained intact, adding CIBC as the twentieth bank in the syndicate. CONTACT: DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this publication should be considered as personalized financial advice. We are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular financial situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision. This is a paid advertisement and is neither an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content in this report or email is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. USA News Group is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Market IQ Media Group, Inc. ("MIQ"). MIQ has been paid a fee for Prairie Operating Co. advertising and digital media from the company directly. There may be 3rd parties who may have shares of Prairie Operating Co. and may liquidate their shares which could have a negative effect on the price of the stock. This compensation constitutes a conflict of interest as to our ability to remain objective in our communication regarding the profiled company. Because of this conflict, individuals are strongly encouraged to not use this publication as the basis for any investment decision. The owner/operator of MIQ own shares of Prairie Operating Co. which were purchased in the open market, and reserve the right to buy and sell, and will buy and sell shares of Prairie Operating Co. at any time without any further notice commencing immediately and ongoing. We also expect further compensation as an ongoing digital media effort to increase visibility for the company, no further notice will be given, but let this disclaimer serve as notice that all material, including this article, which is disseminated by MIQ has been approved by Oncolytics Biotech Inc.; this is a paid advertisement, we currently own shares of Prairie Operating Co. and will buy and sell shares of the company in the open market, or through private placements, and/or other investment vehicles. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained in our newsletter is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment.
Winnipeg Free Press
40 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
The Latest: Mike Waltz will face questions over Signal chat at Senate hearing for new UN job
Mike Waltz, President Donald Trump's nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, will face questioning from lawmakers Tuesday for the first time since he was ousted as national security adviser in the weeks after he mistakenly added a journalist to a private Signal chat used to discuss sensitive military plans. He is set to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 10 a.m. ET. The hearing will provide senators with the first opportunity to grill Waltz over revelations in March that he added The Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg to a private text chain on an unclassified messaging app that was used to discuss planning for strikes on Houthi militants in Yemen. Waltz has spent the last few months on the White House payroll despite being removed as national security adviser. The latest list of White House salaries, current as of July 1, includes Waltz earning an annual salary of $195,200. Here's the latest: Inflation rose last month to its highest level in 4 months Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who promised during last year's presidential campaign to immediately lower costs. Higher inflation will also likely heighten the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut its short-term interest rate, as Trump is loudly demanding. The Labor Department said Tuesday that consumer prices for things like gas, food and groceries rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month. Trump's sweeping tariffs are also pushing up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances. Trump urged supporters to see conspiracies everywhere. With Epstein, that's coming back to haunt him As his supporters erupt over the Justice Department's failure to release much-hyped records in Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking investigation, President Trump's strategy has been to downplay the issue. His problem? That nothing-to-see-here approach doesn't work for those who have learned from him that they must not give up until the government's deepest, darkest secrets are exposed. On Saturday, Trump used his Truth Social platform to again attempt to call supporters off the Epstein trail amid reports of infighting between Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino over the issue. He suggested the turmoil was undermining his administration, but that did little to mollify Trump's supporters, who urged him to release the files or risk losing his base. The political crisis is especially challenging for Trump because it's one of his own making. The president has spent years stoking dark theories and embracing QAnon-tinged propaganda that casts him as the only savior who can demolish the 'deep state.' Now that he's running the federal government, the community he helped build is coming back to haunt him. It's demanding answers he either isn't able to or does not want to provide. Trump sounds more positive about NATO Trump hailed as 'amazing' the news from the NATO summit last month that member countries will increase defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product. 'Nobody thought that that was possible,' Trump told the BBC. He has complained for a long time that the U.S. shoulders too much of the NATO burden and has demanded that countries devote more of their budgets to defense. Reminded that he previously had called NATO 'obsolete,' Trump said, 'I think NATO is now becoming the opposite of that. I do think it was past.' Trump says he wants to have a 'good time' on his upcoming UK state visit Speaking about British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump noted in the BBC interview, 'I really like the prime minister, even though he's a liberal.' Trump and Starmer have met several times, including in the Oval Office, and the prime minister was quick to negotiate a trade framework with the United States to avoid the steep tariffs Trump is imposing on other countries. Trump is due to visit Britain in mid-September for an unprecedented second state visit. Asked about his goals for the trip, Trump said, 'I want to have a good time and respect King Charles, because he's a great gentleman.' Trump and his wife, first lady Melania Trump, are set to visit the U.K. between Sept. 17 and 19 and will be hosted by King Charles III and Queen Camilla at Windsor Castle. No U.S. president has been invited for a second state visit. Trump previously enjoyed state visit pomp and pageantry in 2019 during his first term when he was hosted by Charles' late mother, Queen Elizabeth II. Trump says he's 'disappointed' but not 'done' with Putin, dodges on whether he trusts Russia's leader Asked about Putin in a telephone interview with the BBC that aired on Tuesday, Trump said, 'I'm disappointed in him. But I'm not done with him, but I'm disappointed in him.' Trump said he thought he and Putin had reached a deal several times to end Russia's invasion of neighboring Ukraine, only to find out that Russia had just attacked Kyiv again. The president dodged when asked if he trusts Putin. 'I trust almost nobody, to be honest with you,' Trump said. The Kremlin says more US weapons for Ukraine will extend the war The Kremlin said Tuesday that new supplies of U.S. weapons to Ukraine announced by President Trump will extend the conflict. Asked about comments by Trump, who threatened Russia with steep tariffs if it fails to agree to a peace deal in 50 days and announced a rejuvenated pipeline for American weapons to reach Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that 'such decisions made in Washington, in NATO members and in Brussels are perceived by the Ukrainian side as a signal for continuing the war, not a signal for peace.' He reaffirmed that Russia is open to continuing the talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, but is still waiting for Kyiv to offer a date for their new round. 'We are ready to continue the dialogue,' he said, adding that 'we haven't yet received signals about the third round and it's hard to say what's the reason.' Supreme Court allows Trump to lay off nearly 1,400 Education Department employees The Supreme Court is allowing President Donald Trump to put his plan to dismantle the Education Department back on track and go through with laying off nearly 1,400 employees. With the three liberal justices in dissent, the court on Monday paused an order from U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston, who issued a preliminary injunction reversing the layoffs and calling into question the broader plan. The layoffs 'will likely cripple the department,' Joun wrote. A federal appeals court refused to put the order on hold while the administration appealed. The high court action enables the administration to resume work on winding down the department, one of Trump's biggest campaign promises.
