Snap Insight: PM Paetongtarn's fall over leaked call signals probable demise of Shinawatra clan in Thailand
There are several scenarios possible in the weeks ahead, one of which is the dissolution of parliament and a return to the polls.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport Suriya Jungrungreangkit of the Pheu Thai Party will serve as acting Prime Minister, but other aspirants are also waiting in the wings.
In the longer term, analysts say, it may be the end of the Shinawatra clan's hold in Thai politics.
THAILAND'S POWERFUL ARMY
The proximate cause of the current crisis is the withdrawal last month of the Bhumjaithai Party from the ruling coalition, following the leak by former Cambodian leader Hun Sen of a phone call he had with Ms Paetongtarn over an ongoing border dispute. Mr Hun Sen is President of his country's Senate while his son Hun Manet is Prime Minister.
The petition by 36 senators from Thailand's upper house accused the 38-year-old Ms Paetongtarn, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra and niece of Yingluck Shinawatra - both former prime ministers and both unseated in military coups in 2006 and 2014 respectively - of violating ethical standards in the leaked call.
The plight of Ms Paetongtarn – who has been in power for just 10 months - underlines the reality that in Thailand, one must not antagonise the powerful army.
In the call, Ms Paetongtarn called her much older Cambodian counterpart and friend of her father 'uncle' - and also referred to a senior Thai army commander as an 'opponent'.
Later, struggling to maintain her stature and her nationalist credentials, she apologised but also insisted that her remarks had been misunderstood and she only had the best interests of her country in mind.
There is some speculation of a potential coup d'etat. But while a coup d'etat is never quite off the menu for Thailand's military - Thailand has been through 12 military coups since 1932 - it is generally seen as a last resort when the political situation is deemed untenable, for instance if there is widespread political violence.
DEMISE OF THE SHINAWATRA DYNASTY
Tuesday's development may however signal the demise of the Shinawatra dynasty. Separately the same day, Thaksin, 75, appeared at a court in Bangkok to face accusations of breaching a lese majeste law that shields Thailand's king from criticism. The trial could last for weeks.
The Shinawatra clan's influence has been eroding in recent years. Ms Paetongtarn has been unable to connect with the wider Thai public the way her father and aunt did, and their political party's policy proposals have not resonated as they did in the past. Support for Ms Paetongtarn fell to 9.2 per cent in a recent poll, compared with 30.9 per cent in the first quarter.
The emergence of other reformist parties such as the Move Forward Party - which was dissolved in 2024 and later regrouped as the People's Party - signalled that the people have alternatives, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University.
The Shinawatras were under the illusion they could still capture the people's imagination, he said. 'They cannot blame anyone but themselves' for this crisis, he told me.
'Even if the Shinawatra network somehow survives in name, its cohesion and political power will be far weaker from now on,' Pavin Chachavalpongpun, professor at Kyoto University's Centre for Southeast Asian Studies said in an interview.
The episode also shows how cosy personal relationships between leaders - a characteristic of the 10-member ASEAN group which includes Thailand and Cambodia - can crash.
'The ASEAN way of 'man-to-man' relationships and informal negotiation failed spectacularly here, because those personal ties were weaponised,' Professor Pavin told me. 'Over reliance on personal relationships rather than institutional frameworks leaves diplomacy dangerously vulnerable to leaks, manipulation and power plays.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNA
2 hours ago
- CNA
Commentary: As tariff deadline looms, can Southeast Asia strike a deal with the US?
SINGAPORE: The global economy will enter yet another cycle of volatility as the deadline to negotiate a trade deal with the United States approaches in a week. The stakes for Southeast Asia couldn't be higher. The Trump administration will fall short of its ambitious target of making 90 deals in 90 days, after it paused its rollout of the 'Liberation Day' tariffs. For now, only two framework agreements – which codify parts of an eventual deal including trade and non-trade measures – have been signed with the United Kingdom and China. On Friday (Jun 27), US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick claimed another 10 deals with major trading partners will be announced 'soon' and many more will be concluded by Labour Day on Sep 1. Separately, President Donald Trump remarked that the Jul 9 deadline to conclude negotiations won't be extended. Instead, Washington will inform countries of the final tariffs rates they will pay to have access to the US$28 trillion economy. Given that mixed messaging is a tactic Washington has used quite successfully, it is best to watch financial markets for signs which of these pronouncements will be the actual outcome. TRICKY NEGOTIATIONS Washington imposed a baseline 10 per cent tariffs on all countries and territories, including Singapore, which buys more from the US than it sells. This will undoubtedly affect but not derail the local economy. But for some – particularly Cambodia (49 per cent), Vietnam (46 per cent), and Malaysia (24 per cent) – the additional tariffs could permanently damage their trade-driven economies and leave millions unemployed. Trade negotiations are notoriously difficult and time consuming. Negotiators haggle over tariffs on individual goods, they negotiate non-tariff barriers, and they ask for time for local industries to adjust to concessions. All these are at play in the Liberation Day tariff negotiations. Almost every Southeast Asian country has offered lower-to-zero tariffs for American goods of importance to the US such as agriculture products, commodities and automobiles. Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have also offered more stringent rules about counterfeits and customs controls, so their territories are not misused by other countries trying to avoid higher tariffs. Two factors make these negotiations tricker. One, the region is competing with the rest of the world – and with itself – to get the best possible deal in a near-impossible time frame. For the US, the biggest bang for the buck will be concessions from its largest trading partners - and then the rest of the world. From the region, only Vietnam is in the list of top trading partners, and it is competing for concessions with the likes of Japan and Canada. Compared with the rest, Vietnam has significantly less leverage with the US, and it is unlikely to end up with the 10 per cent baseline tariff rate. Countries also have to keep an eye on regional competition. Cambodia, for example, needs to ensure that whatever tariff rate it ends up with, its low-margin, labour-intensive textile and apparel industries don't become less competitive against companies from Vietnam and others with whom they compete. CHINA LOOMS LARGE As a key trading partner and investor in the region, China looms large in the negotiations. Southeast Asian countries will want to ensure that whatever deals they strike are not worse that what Beijing extracts from Washington. China is also significant for the entire region in other ways. Washington is very keen to use tariffs as a leverage to disentangle the global supply chain from China. Achieving that goal completely is both wishful thinking and virtually impossible. But countries will need to ensure that in industries critical to the US, reliance on Chinese parts is reduced over time. Furthermore, like Vietnam has done, countries will need to be stricter so that country of origin rules are not misused by Chinese companies. With just a week to go, a deal – even an imperfect one – will be an ideal outcome. For the Trump administration, an initial agreement is as good as a final one to satisfy its political base and reinforce Mr Trump's image as a master dealmaker. For those countries who fail to strike a deal, an extension to the deadline will be the second-best outcome. For the millions whose livelihoods depend on trade with the US, anything less will be a disaster.
Independent Singapore
8 hours ago
- Independent Singapore
Thais turn against PM, like her ‘uncle' Hun Sen, in spat with Cambodia
BANGKOK, THAILAND: In the border dispute with Cambodia, thousands of Thais have turned against their own prime minister. They rallied in the capital, Bangkok, on Saturday (Jun 28), demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. She had angered many by appearing too eager to please former Cambodian strongman Hun Sen in a leaked phone call in which she criticised a Thai army commander. Criticising the army is crossing a red line in Thailand. Although the prime minister apologised after the Jun 15 call was leaked, it did not stop protesters from braving heavy rain to demand her ouster. 'Ung Ing, get out,' they chanted, using her nickname. A group of senators also petitioned the Constitutional Court and the national anti-graft commission to investigate her conduct over the leaked phone call. Her ruling coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, broke away from the alliance following the leak. Weighed down by a sluggish economy, she faces a potential no-confidence vote next month. Adding salt to the wound, even Hun Sen condemned her remarks, saying her criticism of the general amounted to an insult to the Thai king, since the monarch appoints generals. See also Myanmar quake toll crosses 1,600 as foreign rescue teams arrive It may seem odd that Hun Sen—whose son Hun Manet is now Cambodia's prime minister—would speak of respecting the Thai king amid tensions between the two countries. However, the wily 72-year-old former leader was playing to deep divisions in Thai politics. Paetongtarn, the 38-year-old daughter of billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, leads a fragile coalition government opposed by royalists and nationalists. Hun Sen and his family, on the other hand, had long been friends of the Shinawatras. Roots of hostility The current hostility stems from a territorial dispute that flared up in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a brief exchange of gunfire. Since then, both sides have reinforced their borders, closed crossings, and halted the movement of goods and people. Paetongtarn spoke about the need to block exports that could be used by criminal gangs running scam operations in Cambodia. An April United Nations report named Cambodia as a hub for scam operations in which workers go online to lure victims through false romantic ploys, bogus investment pitches, and illegal gambling schemes. See also Visa clampdown threatens American universities' global edge In the heated climate, Hun Sen lashed out at the Shinawatras in an hours-long televised speech on Friday (Jun 27), calling for a change of government in Thailand. He accused Paetongtarn of looking down on him and his son. Hun Sen denounced Thaksin, who faces a court case over a hospital stay that spared him prison time, accusing the former leader of faking illness. 'Thaksin was not sick,' he said. 'He pretended to be sick.' Paetongtarn has since expressed a sense of betrayal. 'I won't be talking privately with him [Hun Sen] anymore because there is a trust problem,' she said. She had trusted him during their phone call, addressing him as 'uncle,' saying she was under domestic pressure, and urging him not to listen to 'the opposite side'—a reference to a prominent Thai general at the border. 'He just wants to look cool and say things that are not useful to the nation,' she told Hun Sen through a translator, referring to the general. 'But in truth, what we want is peace.' Those words came back to haunt her. Hun Sen later claimed the audio clip could have been leaked by any of the 80 people with whom he had shared it. The dispute dates back to colonial-era maps drawn by France, which once ruled Cambodia. Both countries claim overlapping areas along their 817-kilometre border. A Cambodian soldier was killed on May 28 in a firefight near the disputed Emerald Triangle, close to the ancient Preah Vihear temple. There had been clashes in the same area before—in 2008 and 2011. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favour of Cambodia regarding the temple and its immediate surroundings, but Thailand disputes the ruling. While it says it is open to negotiations, Thailand opposes having the matter settled by the ICJ. 'We're doing everything we can to try to convince Cambodia to come to bilateral talks,' a Thai foreign ministry spokesman said.
CNA
11 hours ago
- CNA
ISEAS visiting senior fellow Termsak Chalermpalanupap on Thailand's political landscape
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended by the Constitutional Court. The petition was filed by 36 senators, accusing her of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards. Dr Termsak Chalermpalanupap, visiting senior fellow for the Thailand studies programme at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, shared more about what this means for the country's broader political landscape.
