As Europe swelters in 40C heat dome, how hot will it get this summer?
In France, the heat was set to peak on Tuesday - reaching 41C in some areas and 36-39C in most others as a heat dome trapped hot air above Europe.
Almost the entirety of mainland France is under a weather alert, with Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece also being hit by the heatwave.
Barcelona reported the hottest month of June since records started over 100 years ago and the Mediterranean Sea was up to 6C warmer than usual for the time of year.
Speaking in Seville on Monday, UN Secretary General António Guterres wrote on X: 'Extreme heat is no longer a rare event – it has become the new normal. I'm experiencing it firsthand in Spain… The planet is getting hotter & more dangerous — no country is immune.'
So what's causing this week's extreme temperatures, and how hot could it get for British holidaymakers this summer?
Europe's recent heatwave has been attributed to a 'heat dome', which can create particularly long-lasting and intensely high temperatures.
A 'heat dome' sees heat getting trapped in an area for days - or even weeks - meaning it is not able to be moved by wind.
In a 'heat dome', the heat is trapped by a 'lid' of high-pressure air and is unable to escape the area - the warm air rises as it heats, becoming compressed and trapping even more heat.
The dome of high pressure locks out clouds and cooler air, stretching high into the atmosphere where it slows down and becomes 'locked' over an area. It also dries out the ground, creating perfect conditions for fires.
The current heat dome is bringing soaring temperatures to Europe with cities such as Paris, Rome and Athens facing temperatures close to 40C.
Britain sits on the edge of the heat dome, with southern England facing high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.
Northern and western Britain are seeing cooler conditions.
A band of cloud and rain across some northern and western areas through Tuesday morning 🌧️Brighter either side and warming up in the southeast once again ☀️ pic.twitter.com/spPyIJiVgj
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 30, 2025
Cooler air has already started to move into northern areas, and heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the southeast on Wednesday.
The Copernicus three-month forecast for Europe predicts high temperatures over summer, forecasting that there is a "high probability" they will be "well above average" across central and eastern European regions.
Here's what we know about how hot some of the main tourist destinations for UK holidaymakers could get.
Long-range forecaster Météo-France predicts a 50% chance that the summer months will be hotter than normal, rising to 66% in Corsica.
According to the Local, these predictions are based on averages for the season, and do not attempt to predict specific hot days or heatwaves in July and August.
Average temperatures in France are 22C in June, and 24C in July and August, according to tourism company Tui.
There is some regional variation in the country, however, with the Met Office's latest temperature maps showing significantly more heat south of Paris – particularly in southern, south western and central parts of the country.
Almost all of France is currently under a severe weather warning for heat.
The warning says: 'Everyone is in danger, even those in good health. Danger is greater for elderly people, people suffering from chronicle diseases or from mental health troubles, people who regularly take medicine and people who are isolated.
'Watch for dehydration and heatstroke, especially in sportsmen and people working outside.'
Firefighters are battling heatwaves in western Turkey, with fires fanned by strong winds forcing the evacuation of villages.
Coastal regions in Turkey have been ravaged by wildfires in recent years due to hot, dry summers.
The Turkish State Meteorological Service has predicted higher-than-average temperatures this summer.
In Istanbul, in the northwest of the country, average temperatures are 25C in June and 28C in July and August, while further south in Pamukkale the average temperatures are 30C in June and 33C in July and August.
Forecasters from the country's state meteorological service expect maximum temperatures of 41C in July and 40.4C in August.
This is well above the average max temperature range for 1981-2010 (31C in each month).
Temperatures in Spain have already broken multiple records this year, with Barcelona seeing the hottest June in 100 years.
Official forecaster AEMET has predicted that temperatures will be warmer than average, especially in the Canary and Balearic islands.
Probabilities of a hotter summer range from 60% to 70%, according to AEMET.
The summer months in Spain are very hot, with temperatures regularly exceeding 35C, according to the Met Office. Madrid, for example, sees an average daily maximum of 33.5C in July, and 33C in August.
Temperatures tend to be even higher further south, with places in the Guadalquivir valley recording some of the hottest temperatures in Europe. In Seville, the average daily maximum temperature is 36.4C in July and 36.2C in August.
Wildfires have already broken out in Greece, and authorities have issued warnings for six regions across the country.
The Meteo Gr Unit of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) has predicted that July 2025 will be warmer than average.
Meteo Gr wrote, 'According to the latest long-range forecasts issued in June, July 2025 is expected to be warmer than normal across Southeastern Europe, including Greece.'
She said that mean temperature is expected to deviate upwards by an estimated 1.04C. There is a 42% chance of the mercury rising up to 1C above average in July, and a 41% chance of an extra 1-2C.
Forecasters say there is only a 10% chance of deviation of more than 2C over the July average, and only a 7% chance of negative anomalies.
A long-range seasonal forecast for summer 2025, released in June by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (EMY), also predicted above-average temperatures in Greece during August.
Temperatures were projected to be 1-2C higher than normal in northern regions, particularly in Macedonia, Thrace, and northern Thessaly, while milder deviations were expected in the southwest, the Pappas Post reports.
According to Tui, average temperatures in Greece are 25C in July and August.
Portugal has already seen record-breaking temperatures this summer, with a high of 46.6C in Mora.
The IPMA weather agency has predicted high temperatures for the rest of summer.
The IPMA wrote: 'In the average monthly air temperature , a positive anomaly of 0.5 to 1.0°C is expected over most of mainland Portugal, Madeira and the Azores for the 3 months covered by the forecast.
'Exceptionally, in the southern region of mainland Portugal, particularly along the south coast, the forecast for the air temperature anomaly is slightly lower than the rest of the territory, of 0.25 to 0.5°C, being more notable in the month of July."
According to Tui, the average temperature in Portugal is 26C in July and 25C in August, with average rainfall of 0mm per day in each month.
The travel company says the country reaches highs of around 30C during both months, with greater humidity in August.
Some regions in Italy are planning to ban certain outdoor work activities during the hottest hours of the day, with trade unions pushing for a national measure.
The Health Ministry has placed 21 cities on its highest heat alert, including Rome, Milan and Naples.
The official forecaster has predicted high temperatures this summer, potentially 2-3C higher than normal.
"For the month of July on Italy there is a positive widespread anomaly up to +2/+3 degrees C, a little less only in Sicily," iL Meteo says.
"By August 2025, the Po Valley [in northern Italy], and some Apennine sectors [which stretch across the centre of the country] will still have a positive anomaly up to +2/+3C, elsewhere will be +1C," the forecaster adds.
Average daily maximum temperatures in Rome, in the central-western part of the country, are 29C and 30C, in July and August, respectively, according to the Met Office.
In Milan, in the north of the country, the average daily maximum hovers just over 30C in both months, while in the south, in Sicily, the average is 34.9C in July and 35C in August.
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