Is Joseph Kabila's return to Congo a game changer?

Muscat Daily

27-05-2025

Kinshasa, DRC – The Congo River Alliance (AFC) and M23 rebel groups claim Joseph Kabila is in Goma, beyond the reach of Congolese government forces. Kabila, who served as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) head of state from 2001 to 2019, was once a strong ally of incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi.
But Kabila recently made headlines after publicly criticising a decision by Tshisekedi's government to remove his immunity from prosecution, despite being declared a 'senator for life' when he stood down in 2019. Tshisekedi's administration has also ramped up verbal attacks on the former president, with Augustin Kabuya, secretary-general of Tshisekedi's Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), declaring 'Kabila is not Congolese' but rather a 'Rwandan subject'.
Some political observers have said Kabila's reemergence in a rebel-held area could jeopardise existing mediation efforts spearheaded by religious leaders.
However, Elodie Ntamuzinda, a conflict resolution expert, told DW that sidelining Kabila is counterproductive. 'We encourage the authorities to be able to approach him and that he, too, be open to talks. We believe that the general interest comes first, and we need each other,' Ntamuzinda said.
Tresor Kibangula, political director at the Kinshasa-based Ebuteli research institute, described Kabila as a shadow power the government is trying to keep at bay.
As the son of the late Congolese President Laurent-Desire Kabila, who opposed the dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko, Joseph Kabila spent much of his youth in Tanzania before becoming a military leader in his father's rebel Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (AFDL) in the late 1990s.
It is widely believed that Kabila's ADFL rebel group included 'kadogos' (Kiswahili for child soldiers), and when the ADFL ousted Mobutu's regime in 1997, the young Kabila gained further military training abroad before taking up a senior position in the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC).
Kabila's tumultuous presidency
Laurent Kabila's assassination on January 16, 2001, thrust his son Joseph Kabila, who was just 29 years old at that time, into the presidency. He was reportedly reluctant to be president of the vast mineral-rich country, which was in the midst of the devastating Second Congo War. The conflict broadly pitted pro-government forces and international allies like Angola, Zimbabwe, and Namibia against Rwandan-backed fighters, who had taken over large territories in the eastern DRC.
The 2002 Sun City Agreement technically ended the fighting and paved the way for Congo's first democratic election.
Kabila won the 2006 election and would lead the Congo until 2018. He tried to keep a stable government, but accusations of incompetence, cronyism and corruption dogged his tenure. Despite relative successes like opening up the country to foreign investors and growing the economy, most Congolese remained below the poverty line. At the same time, the nation's mineral wealth was extracted and shipped out of the country to benefit trade partners.
Reelection in 2011 saw Kabila retain power, but his list of enemies grew, and rebel groups such as the Rwandan-backed M23 reappeared. Protests against Kabila's governance and self-enrichment rumours were often violently quashed. When Kabila's term ran out in 2016, he delayed the elections until 2018 and became more unpopular at home and abroad.
In addition, the security situation in Congo, despite the presence of multinational forces like SADC and MONUSCO, was becoming untenable.
In 2019, Kabila handed over power peacefully to Felix Tshisekedi, although observers expressed distrust in the validity of the election results. Kabila then seemed to retreat from politics.
But in 2020, the pair fell out, and the coalition between their political parties ended. Since 2023, Tshisekedi's regime has accused Kabila of siding with the M23. Consequently, Tshisekedi banned Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy, and ended his immunity from prosecution, which he had enjoyed as a former president.
Is Kabila's influence waning?
Kabila's relationship with the Congolese government deteriorated further in 2025. 'There is no strong popular nostalgia for Kabila in the country today,' said political analyst Kibangula. Nevertheless, Tshisekedi has ramped up accusations, saying Kabila was plotting an 'insurrection' with the M23. He has regularly named him the architect of the M23's military success in eastern Congo.
In a recent online video address, 53-year-old Kabila broke his silence publicly for the first time after losing his immunity.
'The dictatorship must end, and democracy and good economic and social governance must be restored,' he said.
He criticised Tshisekedi's leadership for corruption, undermining democracy and mishandling the violent conflict in the eastern DRC.
Deo Bizibu, a member of Tshisekedi's ruling UDPS, accused Kabila of hypocrisy. 'This is a pyromaniac trying to pass himself off as a fireman,' Bizibu told DW, adding that Kabila had spent six years pulling strings, seeking to return to power.
'He should understand that his time is up.'
Conflict analyst Philippe Doudou Kaganda told DW that Congolese unity is at stake with Kabila's return. 'We're going to get bogged down in conflict again, and it's going to take on a dimension that's much more internal than external,' he said. 'There's a risk that the discourse around Rwanda will be stifled.'
Tshisekedi's government has sought to blame incursions from Rwanda as the cause of instability in eastern Congo. Rwanda has denied the allegations, arguing that the Congolese must handle their security challenges.
DW