West Asia: Can IMEC do what the Abraham Accords couldn't—deliver peace?

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17 hours ago

The Israel-Iran conflict is over, at least for the time being. The war in Gaza, however, rages on. Despite frequent attempts to get the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire, it remains elusive. The Donald Trump administration, with Egypt and Qatar as key interlocutors, had recently proposed another ceasefire of 60 days. While initial reports suggested that Israel has agreed to the contours of the ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his statements later, denied it, and Hamas is yet to take a call on it.
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The positions of Israel and Hamas in it are acutely divergent. While Hamas is looking at a complete end to the war accompanied by full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, Israel is looking for the release of its hostages with no guarantees on ending the war till Hamas is totally removed from Gaza. With this being the case, an early ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has opened doors for American diplomacy in the region. Expansion of the Abraham Accords is being seen as the preferred instrument in it. There are inputs that Lebanon and Syria could be next to join the Abraham Accords now that they are effectively out of the Iranian sphere of influence. With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the Al Shaara-led regime has suddenly become the favourite in Washington.
Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (previously Abu Mohammad al-Joulani with ISIS and Al-Qaeda links) was welcomed in the White House with open hands, economic sanctions on Syria are being removed, and there are economic packages being worked out to help rebuild Syria. The same is the case in Lebanon, where the government has assured the US and Israel that Hezbollah will not be allowed to regain strength in South Lebanon.
Concurrently, efforts to restart the normalisation process between Israel and Saudi Arabia are being pursued. In fact, well before the Israel-Iran conflict broke out, President Trump visited Saudi Arabia and the West Asian region in May 2025 as his first visit abroad after taking over the presidency. Despite a successful visit in which a Saudi investment of almost $600 billion was promised, no headway could be made as far as normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia is concerned, with the Gaza war and the Palestine issue remaining key sticking points.
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If the normalisation with Saudi Arabia does not move forward, the entire project of Israel being mainstreamed into the West Asian region will remain an unfinished project. It may be recalled that one of the primary reasons for the outbreak of the Gaza war was the process of this normalisation which was nearing fruition in September 2023. In the last week of September 2023, Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz became the first Israeli minister to head an official delegation to Saudi Arabia to take part in a conference of the United Nations Tourism Organisation. He was soon followed by Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi on October 3, leading an Israeli delegation to the Universal Postal Union's 2023 Extraordinary Congress.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), as well as Israel's PM Netanyahu, also spoke publicly of the deal, the contours of which indicated that Saudi Arabia would have gotten a defence pact with the US as well as a nuclear program. Israel was to offer 'assurances' to the Palestinian groups, but there would be no clear outcome on the two-state solution. If Saudi Arabia and Israel had established formal diplomatic relations without a permanent solution to the Palestine issue, it would have dealt a death blow to the struggle of the Palestinians. Before any more progress on normalisation could take place, the war broke out on October 7, triggered by the Hamas terror attack into Israel.
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In the Gaza war as well as the recent Israel-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia had to join other Arab/Muslim nations in the region to strongly condemn Israeli strikes into Gaza as well as the unilateral strikes on June 13, violating the territorial integrity of Iran. In such a situation, it is very unlikely that Saudi Arabia will relent soon and move towards normalisation. Any major expansion of the Abraham Accords is therefore likely to remain remote in the near future except, possibly, adding Lebanon and Syria to it.
What can then be the path towards peace and economic progress in the region? Can economy and connectivity work where diplomacy is currently facing headwinds? Here is where the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) comes into the picture. It may be recalled that IMEC was one of the most successful outcomes of India's G20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023. Coming as a surprise announcement at the Summit, it immediately caught the imagination of policymakers, businesses, and industry.
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In its concept, it is a bold and transformative connectivity project with a vision to connect India with Europe across the deserts of the Arabian Peninsula, creating an alternate link to the Suez Canal, which has faced frequent disruptions due to conflicts in the region. It envisions a multi-modal economic corridor involving multiple businesses, integrating railways, ports, highways, energy networks, and digital infrastructure to enhance trade, investment, and connectivity across the three continents.
When implemented in full, IMEC promises to unlock new opportunities for multi-dimensional trade through multi-modal transport linkages across regions that have traditionally been close trade partners. It has the potential to facilitate faster and more efficient movement of goods, bypassing existing bottlenecks, reducing shipping delays, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and cutting costs. It also aims to secure regional supply chains, improve trade accessibility, and facilitate the economic prosperity of people and countries along the alignment of the project.
One of the key and very interesting parts of the architecture unveiled at the G20 Summit was the alignment, which passes through Jordan and Israel, culminating at the port of Haifa, before its onwards sea passage to Europe. Interestingly, Egypt, which was traditionally a gateway from the region, was excluded from the original architecture despite having better-developed ports and rail infrastructure, giving a clear indication that IMEC was being seen as an instrument of economic connectivity as well as a geopolitical instrument to include Israel. However, even before it could take shape, the war in Gaza erupted, putting it on a backburner.
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In recent months, however, IMEC has come alive again. Whether it was PM Modi's visit to Washington earlier in February, the AI Global Summit in France in February, or the visit of EU Commissioners to New Delhi in March, one common thread is the mention of IMEC and the commitment to see that this project is implemented at the earliest opportunity. S Jaishankar, India's External Affairs Minister, during his recent visit to Brussels in June, held extensive talks with the EU delegation. Among the talks, key points of discussion included the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and projects like IMEC, which can not only enhance connectivity but also unlock many other opportunities for collaboration.
During recent discussions on IMEC, there is also a clear realisation that the originally proposed alignment may require a modification, and perhaps, the inclusion of Oman in the East and Egypt in the West will offer more options, which are less conflict-prone, to advance the IMEC project. In the West Asian region too, there is a strong positive outlook towards getting IMEC off the ground. India is already working bilaterally with the UAE and Saudi Arabia on coordinating many issues, like plugging the missing links and key regulatory mechanisms, which would be essential for smooth transit of goods through IMEC. The EU too has woken up to the huge promise of IMEC and has started deliberations on it. France and Italy, key signatories of IMEC from Europe, have also nominated special envoys for IMEC.
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If signatory countries in the IMEC and others like Egypt, Oman, etc, do decide to move forward, it can create a huge opportunity for the three regions. India, which is seen to anchor the project, can play a very important and pivotal role in kick-starting the project. With close and strategic relationships with Israel as well as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and the EU, India can play a key role in putting collective economic prosperity as the driving factor, putting the conflict on a backburner. Focused and collective efforts on a shared vision of enhanced trade, connectivity, green energy, and prosperity can perhaps do what diplomacy is not able to do—end the cycle of conflict in West Asia. Maybe IMEC can do what the Abraham Accords was aimed for—lasting peace in West Asia.
Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
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