
Rupee inches up, near-tenor swap maturities trim central bank's forward book
Data released after market-hours on Monday showed that the size of Reserve Bank of India's FX forward book shrank to $65.2 billion at the end of May, down from $72.6 billion in the previous month. The data is released with a one-month lag.
The Reserve Bank of India's aggregate short dollar position in FX forwards and futures had climbed to a record in February amid dollar-selling interventions by the central bank to support the rupee.
The rupee has recovered about 2.5% since hitting an all-time low of 87.95 in February, aided by a dollar's struggles.
Maturity of near-tenor swaps - worth about $7.4 billion in the up to 1-month bucket in April - likely contributed to shrinking the central bank's aggregate short dollar positions.
"While the RBI had increased the short dollar positions in its forward book during periods of INR volatility, it has opportunistically termed out some of those positions while also letting some positions mature," said B. Prasanna, treasury head at ICICI Bank.
On the day, the rupee and its regional peers were boosted by the dollar index drop to a multi-year low on worries over the U.S. fiscal deficit and uncertainty surrounding trade deals with major countries.
The rupee was up 0.2% at 85.59 per U.S. dollar as of 10:20 a.m. IST.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches. The White House, meanwhile, said that an update on a trade deal with India was expected "very soon."
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Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Japan's shaky government loses upper house control
TOKYO, July 21 (Reuters) - Japan's ruling coalition is certain to lose control of the upper house in Sunday's election, public broadcaster NHK reported , an outcome that further weakens Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline with the United States looms. While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba's administration will fall, it heaps political pressure on the embattled leader who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito were certain to fall short of the 50 seats needed to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats were up for grabs, NHK said early on Monday, with six seats still to call. That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote which has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change. Speaking late on Sunday evening after exit polls closed, Ishiba told NHK he "solemnly" accepted the "harsh result". "We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realizing our national interests," he later told TV Tokyo. Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said "that's right". Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party was set to finish second, vote counts showed. The fringe far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, announced its arrival in mainstream politics with its 'Japanese First' campaign and warnings about a "silent invasion" of foreigners winning broader support. It was set to add at least 13 seats to one elected previously. Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending struck a chord with voters, as rising consumer prices - particularly a jump in the cost of rice - have sowed frustration at the government's response. "The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue," said David Boling, a director at consulting firm Eurasia Group. "Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home." The LDP has been urging fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan's ability to refinance the world's largest debt pile. Any concessions the LDP must now strike with opposition parties to pass policy will only further elevate those nerves, analysts say. "The ruling party will have to compromise in order to gain the cooperation of the opposition, and the budget will continue to expand," said Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo. "Overseas investors' evaluation of the Japan economy will also be quite harsh." Sanseito, which first emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, is among those advocating fiscal expansion. But it is its tough talk on immigration that has grabbed attention, dragging once-fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream. It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany's AfD and Reform UK. "I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners," said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday. "When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected," Nagai said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo's Shinjuku ward. Japan, the world's oldest society, saw foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year. That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the United States and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.

Finextra
2 hours ago
- Finextra
CNY Continues to Dwindle in 2025 as China Seeks Renminbi Stability: By Dmytro Spilka
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Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Japan's Prime Minister vows not to quit despite 'harsh result' on polls
Japan's Prime Minister has vowed not to quit despite exit polls indicating that his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost control of the upper house. Voters took to the polls Sunday for the tightly-contested election, which has taken place at a time of frustration at the coalition of the LD and its junior partner Komeito over rising prices and the threat of US tariffs. According to media projections after elections, Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was projected to have lost its majority in the upper house, a result that might push him to resign. Speaking after polls closed on Sunday, the prime minister, 68, said he 'solemnly' accepts the 'harsh result' but that his focus was on trade negotiations. 'It's a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously,' Ishiba told broadcaster NHK. 'We can't do anything until we see the final results, but we want to be very aware of our responsibility,' Ishiba added. Half of the seats in the upper chamber were being voted on in Sunday's election, with members elected for six-year terms. If the coalition takes home less than 46 seats, it would mark its worst performance since it was formed in 1999. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, but whether anyone wants to replace Ishiba is another matter. 'I wonder who else wants the job,' Masahisa Endo, politics professor at Waseda University, told AFP before the election result. Ishiba, a self-confessed defence 'geek', is the son of a regional governor and is from Japan's small Christian minority. Seen as a safe pair of hands, he won the party leadership in September, on his fifth try, to become the LDP's 10th separate prime minister since 2000, all of them men. Ishiba pledged to 'create a new Japan' and revitalise depressed rural regions, and to address the 'quiet emergency' of Japan's shrinking population. He immediately called lower house elections for October but that backfired spectacularly, with the LDP suffering its worst result in 15 years. That robbed the LDP and its coalition party Komeito of their majority, forcing them to bargain with opposition parties to pass legislation. Ishiba's policies on bringing down inflation and spurring growth have 'flip-flopped', Stefan Angrick at Moody's Analytics said last week. The government 'boxed itself in, promising only some belated and half-hearted financial support that will do little to improve the demand outlook,' Angrick said. The government's popularity ratings have plummeted, with voters angry about price rises, especially for rice that is twice as expensive as a year ago. Ishiba, the father of two daughters, also appointed only two women to his cabinet, down from five under predecessor Fumio Kishida. Ishiba's sometimes clumsy ways - ranging from the less-than-perfectly tidy arrangement of his tuxedo to his table manners - have also been rich fodder for social media memes. He drew ridicule after being snapped apparently napping in parliament and for failing to stand up to greet other world leaders at a gathering in South America. Worse was a video that emerged of Ishiba eating an onigiri rice ball - a popular snack - whole and munching on it without closing his mouth. 'He eats like a three-year-old,' wrote one user on social media platform X. A major challenge has been dealing with US President Donald Trump, who has imposed painful tariffs on Japanese cars, steel and aluminium. Further levies of 25 percent on other Japanese imports - up from 10 percent currently - will come into force on August 1 if there is no trade agreement. Ishiba secured an early invitation to the White House in February and has sent his tariffs envoy to Washington seven times, but there has been no deal yet. Then-premier Shinzo Abe - dubbed a 'Trump whisperer' - fared better during Trump's first term, managing to shield Japan from any tariffs. Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, gifted Trump a gold-coloured golf club and was a frequent guest of the US president. According to Trump, Abe even nominated him for the Nobel prize. 'There will never be another like him,' he said after Abe's death.