Manus on Markets: Rolling up the record highs for US stocks – why?
Manus Cranny, The National's geo-economics editor, cuts through the noise and presents insights from the stories making headlines around the world.
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The National
3 hours ago
- The National
US and EU strike an 'across the board' agreement on tariffs
US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday they had reached a deal to end a transatlantic tariff dispute, averting the risk of a full-scale trade war. Mr Trump and Ms Von der Leyen held private talks at one of Mr Trump's golf courses in Scotland and later announced what the US President called an 'across-the-board' agreement. The breakthrough comes just days before an August 1 deadline for the European Union to strike a deal with Washington or face a sweeping 30 per cent US tariff on EU goods. 'We have reached a deal. It's a good deal for everybody,' Mr Trump told reporters. Mr Trump said the deal involved a baseline levy of 15 per cent on EU exports to the United States, the same level secured by Japan, including for the bloc's crucial auto sector, which is currently being taxed at 25 per cent. 'We are agreeing that the tariff straight across, for cars and everything else, will be a straight across tariff of 15 per cent,' he added. Mr Trump also said the bloc had agreed to purchase "$750 billion worth of energy' from the United States, as well as $600 billion more in additional investments in the country. Negotiating on behalf of the EU's 27 countries, Ms Von der Leyen's European Commission had been pushing hard to salvage a trading relationship worth an annual $1.9 trillion in goods and services. 'It's a good deal,' the EU chief told reporters, sitting alongside Mr Trump following their hour-long talks. 'It will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That's very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,' she said. The EU has been hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Mr Trump reclaimed the White House. It is currently subject to a 25 per cent levy on cars, 50 per cent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 per cent, which Washington threatens to hike to 30 per cent in a no-deal scenario. Brussels has been focused on getting a deal to avoid sweeping tariffs that would further harm its sluggish economy with retaliation held out as a last resort.
Crypto Insight
6 hours ago
- Crypto Insight
Wrench attacks drive crypto investors to centralized custodians
Crypto custodians are reporting increased interest in their services amid the rising frequency of so-called '$5 wrench attacks' on cryptocurrency traders, investors and project leaders. In the last year, several high-profile wrench attacks — physical attempts to steal someone's crypto — have targeted prominent investors and business executives in the blockchain industry. The crypto mantra of 'not your keys, not your coins' has lost its power among some investors who fear for their personal safety. Cold wallets may offer full control over digital assets, but they also present a single point of attack. As crypto adoption grows, and wrench attacks persist with the proliferation of more high-value crypto investors, custodians are seeing a shift in preference from self-custody to institutional control. Crypto wrench attacks drive security demand Wrench attacks are nothing new. Jameson Lopp, a Bitcoin advocate and chief technology officer of Bitcoin wallet Casa, published a GitHub repository logging hundreds of such incidents since 2014 — and those were only the ones reported in the news. In the last two to three years, as crypto adoption has sped up and become more mainstream than ever, attacks have grown more public and sophisticated. In January 2025, the founder of crypto wallet Ledger and his wife, David and Amandine Balland, were kidnapped, taken to separate locations and held at ransom. Just months later, the daughter of an exchange founder barely fought off attackers who attempted to kidnap her in a van on the streets of Paris. Concern over the rise in attacks and their similar methods led French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau to meet with cryptocurrency professionals to discuss the issue. As concern over these attacks grows, crypto custodians are noticing an uptick in interest in their services. Emma Shi, over-the-counter and institutional sales director of HashKey, which offers custody and exchange services, told Cointelegraph, 'We're absolutely seeing rising retail anxiety translate into meaningful inflows. Wealthier retail investors are increasingly approaching regulated custodians after high-profile cases like the recent Manhattan kidnapping, where physical coercion was used to access private keys.' Shi said HashKey's custody business has noted increased interest in storage from 'family offices, crypto-native high-net-worth individuals and even those with nest eggs that are large enough to be vulnerable to theft.' Cold wallets have long been lauded by crypto advocates as a way to give investors full control over their assets and to keep them maximally secure offline. However, this single key also provides a 'single point of failure,' per Wade Wang, CEO of multiparty computation (MPC) crypto custody service Safeheron. Wang said that there is a 'flight to security' among crypto investors, where holders 'are actively seeking innovative solutions that eliminate that single point of failure to significantly raise the bar for attacking.' Already in 2023, a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers on the state of digital custody noted the challenge of cold wallets being prone to theft or loss. One solution posited in the report was MPC or multisignature wallet options. Can custody services stop wrench attacks? Crypto self-custody, while boasting a new technology, runs into the same problem as treasure hoarders throughout history — they were vulnerable to physical attacks and theft until they could share that risk with a stronger and securer institution like a bank. Robbing a bank is a lot harder than robbing a person. In the same fashion, crypto investors are now seeking to 'raise the cost' of the $5 wrench attack. Wang said that investors wish to 'return to the fundamental principle: making the cost for an attacker rise exponentially. For example, when it costs $3 million to steal $10 million, the incentive for attack is lost.' Third-party custody can achieve this and mitigate the problem of wrench attacks, adding time-locks and layers of approval and shifting the target from an individual to the custodian's employees. 'But it is not an optimal solution,' per Wang. Trust is still put in a single, centralized institution and, as exemplified by the recent breaches at Coinbase and Bybit, even major regulated crypto businesses are vulnerable to employee misconduct and phishing. Wang suggested that distributed custody, such as MPC, 'is a superior solution because it fundamentally solves the problem. The core principle of MPC is to use technology to decentralize the single point of control and risk […] into a 'multiparty' structure.' In such a system, control doesn't belong to any one person, and transferring funds requires complex consensus protocols from multiple parties. Decentralized solutions may better reflect the ethos of the blockchain industry, but 'we cannot neglect the benefits of centralized custodians,' Wang said. 'Reliable security measures bring better assurance of keeping clients' assets safe, a familiar way of doing things for lots of new crypto players.' Centralized or decentralized, crypto investors could still be at risk if the public image of crypto investors is that they are all walking around with cold wallets full of Bitcoin. Shi said, 'The perception of risk matters, too. Attackers often assume holders store funds themselves, so public awareness that more crypto is held in custodial solutions may deter opportunistic assaults.' Wrench attacks a 'temporary problem' solved by adoption Public perception is indeed changing. Retail investors are increasingly making crypto part of their portfolio, according to a 2024 report from Ernst & Young. New regulations in large financial markets like the EU and the US are creating the frameworks necessary for institutional investors to get involved. This regulatory shift has been good for the custody industry as well, as it 'legitimizes professional custody for everyday investors and is leading to more offerings from not only crypto-native firms but traditional banks as well,' said Shi. 'We're seeing crypto adoption accelerate in regions with regulatory clarity, which creates entirely new custody considerations for investors who previously relied solely on self-custody solutions.' Regulations also raise the stakes of wrench attacks, per Wang. Better regulatory frameworks with more jurisdictions 'proactively setting robust regulations' will 'inevitably lead to more severe law enforcement actions, which will significantly increase the cost of such attacks and fundamentally curb such behaviors.' 'We see the physical attacking as a temporary challenge,' Wang concluded. The crypto industry has evolved through many stages, but the rise of wrench attacks on prominent investors and executives shows that it has yet to reach the maturity of traditional financial markets. In the meantime, executives are not only moving their assets to centralized and decentralized custodians but also finding muscle of their own. Personal security firms have also seen an uptick in interest from crypto's elite to protect their homes and persons. Source:
Khaleej Times
8 hours ago
- Khaleej Times
India set to contribute 20% of total global growth by 2035
India is on track to become the world's third-largest economy by 2028 and to double its gross domestic product (GDP) to $10.6 trillion by 2035, contributing 20 per cent of total global growth over the next decade, according to a new Morgan Stanley report. The bullish projection reinforces India's status as the world's fastest-growing major economy, with a combination of decentralised state-level growth, robust domestic demand, and structural policy reforms propelling its upward trajectory. A standout theme in Morgan Stanley's forecast is the rise of states as key economic engines. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka are expected to be the first Indian states to each achieve a $1 trillion economy. Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Telangana are currently the top-performing states by GDP, while others like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh have significantly climbed economic rankings over the past five years. This shift reflects the success of India's 'competitive federalism', where states are increasingly responsible for policy innovation, industrialisation, and urbanisation. The report highlights how India's decentralised growth model is underpinned by sub-national governance, with states implementing agile policies and infrastructure initiatives tailored to their local economies. This trend is driving industrial diversification, improving labour markets, and attracting foreign and domestic investments. Morgan Stanley also expects India to contribute 20 per cent of total global growth over the next decade. As multinationals seek alternatives to China in their supply chains, India is emerging as a compelling manufacturing destination. This shift is bolstered by the government's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, which are beginning to show results in the form of rising exports, industrial capacity utilisation, and new global partnerships in electronics, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy. India's capital markets are also a major growth story. According to Bloomberg data, Indian benchmark indices have outperformed most emerging markets over the past three years, driven by resilient corporate earnings, strong domestic consumption, and continued infrastructure spending. Foreign portfolio investments have remained robust, and market confidence has been further reinforced by the stability of the financial system and policy continuity. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), India's GDP is forecast to grow 6.5 per cent in 2025 and 6.7 per cent in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, a normal monsoon, and expected monetary easing. Inflation is also moderating, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping to 2.1 per cent in June 2025 — the lowest in 77 months — as food inflation turned negative. ADB projects inflation to remain within the Reserve Bank of India's target range at 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) echoes these sentiments, projecting India's real GDP growth to range between 6.4 and 6.7 per cent this fiscal year. This reinforces India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, even as global growth slows and other developing Asian economies face headwinds from trade policy shifts and weakened exports. While the broader Asia-Pacific region grapples with uncertainties — such as escalating US tariffs, slowing Chinese growth, and geopolitical tensions — India appears better insulated. ADB's Chief Economist Albert Park noted that although Asia faces a weakening external environment, economies that maintain open trade and strong investment fundamentals can sustain growth momentum — India being a prime example. Domestic indicators show a mixed short-term picture. ICRA estimates India's GDP growth in the first quarter of FY26 to range between 6.1 and 6.5 per cent, down from 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter. The slowdown is attributed to excessive rainfall affecting coal production and power generation in June. Rating agency ICRA's Business Activity Monitor showed a 5.9 per cent year-on-year rise in June, slightly easing from 6.4 per cent in May. However, GST e-way bill generation and railway freight remained robust. The core sector growth moderated to 1.7 per cent in June, with weak performance in crude oil, refinery products, and electricity. Passenger vehicle and two-wheeler sales also slowed, alongside some softening in rural and urban labour market indicators. However, financial conditions have eased across markets, supported by policy rate cuts and improved liquidity. Despite short-term fluctuations, ICRA maintains a full-year GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent for FY26, assuming a well-distributed monsoon, stable crude oil prices around $70 per barrel, and continued rural demand. Risks remain, particularly from global economic volatility, energy market fluctuations, and escalating trade tensions.
