Nawrocki's victory is a huge triumph for Trump
The EU Commission had obviously hoped for the victory of the liberal Europhile mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, who was a vocal proponent of the Brussels consensus on abortion, gay rights and even the liberalised migration rules backed by Poland's current premier and ex-EU insider, Donald Tusk. But these views were vehemently rejected by the nationalist winner, Karol Nawrocki.
The new president also has a track record of being a fierce critic of Russia and has personally antagonised the Kremlin by supporting the removal of Soviet war memorials as well as Communist monuments in Poland, but his victory is a mixed blessing for Ukraine. Unlike the EU's two pro-Russian governments in Hungary and Slovakia, Nawrocki is no Kremlin apologist.
As an historian Nawrocki has emphasised Poland's long history of repression by the Russian empire as well as the Soviet Union, so he is not a friend of the Kremlin. But, like his ally, the current Polish President, Andrzej Duda, Nawrocki does not ignore the bitter history of Polish-Ukrainian relations which Putin's invasion briefly papered over. Economic factors also haunt Warsaw's relations with Kyiv.
Polish farmers made up a key component of the new Polish president's election winning coalition. They have been bitterly opposed to the EU's lifting of tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural exports since Putin's invasion. Although Brussels has in fact announced a reintroduction of tariffs on Ukrainian exports, the prospect of Ukraine's joining the EU means free trade in foodstuffs is back on the horizon.
Recently, Poland's economy has grown at far faster rates than the sclerotic big three of the EU, Germany, France and Italy. Economic prosperity has boosted Poland's ability to fund a serious defence build up.
Given the powerful voice that the Polish president has in foreign affairs and defence matters, Nawrocki's election will give Trump an important ally among the European leaders and sideline Donald Tusk, whose status as the EU's man in Warsaw makes him a red rag to the US president.
Nawrocki's victory is the first success for Trump-style populism after the interventions by his vice-president, JD Vance, and other Maga voices in the recent German and Romanian elections had backfired. But Poland's new president got a boost from American Republicans in the days before the polls and looks set to continue his predecessor's close relationship with the Trump White House.
Nawrocki's victory will add to Trump's pressure to turn EU rhetoric about rebuilding European states' defence capacity into concrete measures on the Polish model. Poland will emphasise US leadership rather than the more nebulous European strategic autonomy as promoted by France's Emmanuel Macron. Nawrocki's upset victory is a win for the West, but not for 'Europe'.
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