Thailand's political war heads toward a no-return showdown

The Star

13-05-2025

BANGKOK: A high-stakes political war unfolds in Thailand—legal traps, party dissolutions, and a Senate scandal are pushing rival camps toward an explosive confrontation.
Thai politics today bears an uncanny resemblance to the insurgency in the southern border provinces—murky, protracted, exhausting, and strewn with casualties along the way.
At its core lies a deadlock between two rival factions, neither capable of delivering a decisive blow to the other.
As a result, the political stalemate has reached a critical juncture: a final confrontation now seems inevitable. Without it, both sides may well 'die together'—locked in mutual destruction, much like the southern conflict now lingering on life support.
To grasp the current high-stakes showdown, we must start with the latest flashpoint: the aggressive push to bring down the Senate. The campaign has gathered momentum and shows no signs of slowing, even after being temporarily halted.
To trace the roots of this escalation, consider this brief yet dramatic timeline — spanning less than 10 days:
April 30 – The Supreme Court unexpectedly appointed a panel to reopen Thaksin Shinawatra's sentencing case. This move shocked the legal community, as the court had previously dismissed similar petitions three times. This time, it cited 'new developments' that warranted further investigation.
May 8 (Daytime) – The Medical Council disciplined the doctors responsible for Thaksin's care, signalling that he may not have been in critical condition, or perhaps not genuinely ill at all.
May 8 (Nighttime) – Arrest warrants were suddenly issued for 55 senators, with plans to expand that number to 150. Crucially, this sweep included not just blue-camp senators but also members of a major political party. The implications were clear: this could escalate to the level of party dissolution.
This brief timeline makes one thing clear — this is a political battle with everything on the line.
On the Pheu Thai side (red), Thaksin — still the true power behind the scenes — is now bound by two major legal cases: first, the '14th Floor' scandal involving his questionable hospitalisation at the Police General Hospital; and second, the extremely sensitive lese majeste charge under Article 112.
Meanwhile, his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, is increasingly entangled as well, caught in a web of legal threats, including the case surrounding Deputy Prime Minister Pirapan's qualifications, which could extend directly to her.
On the other side, Bhumjaithai (blue) is being squeezed by the Senate Vote-Rigging Scandal. The situation has spiralled beyond political control. The public has seen the evidence and is no longer willing to accept silence or spin.
What began as a behind-the-scenes manoeuvre to shift Senate loyalties has now exploded into a full-fledged campaign to dismantle the Senate altogether—and potentially dissolve entire parties.
This escalation beyond the Senate is driven by the involvement of a major political party, reportedly with ministers directly tied to the party's true command structure. This is, in effect, a political strategy to 'strike the beehive and scatter the swarm.'
At the centre of this brewing political storm is the '14th Floor' case. Thaksin appears to be making his move to flip the board—seizing the advantage, neutralising his enemies, and consolidating absolute power. If he fails, the consequences will be dire—not only for him but for his daughter as well.
To neutralise the legal landmine that is the '14th Floor' case, Thaksin's team appears to be executing a three-pronged strategy:
1. Proving the sentence was already served
The first move is to produce witnesses who will testify that Thaksin has, in fact, served his sentence in accordance with the court's ruling. Besides the Department of Corrections, the key witness here is none other than Wissanu Krea-ngam, a seasoned legal expert and long-time political insider.
2. Justifying the transfer to the Police General Hospital
Next, the defence is working to legitimise the Department of Corrections' decision to transfer Thaksin from prison to the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital. The legal argument is that current laws and ministerial regulations do not require an inmate to be in 'critical condition'—only that they suffer from a 'specialised illness.' The claim is that the prison hospital lacked both the equipment and the expertise to treat his specific condition.
3. Deflecting the 'fake illness' allegation
The third and most sensitive point is countering the accusation that Thaksin feigned illness to stay out of prison. The strategy here is to disqualify the most damaging piece of evidence: the Medical Council's decision to discipline three doctors involved in his care.
The goal is to prevent that ruling from becoming admissible in the Supreme Court's review of Thaksin's sentence enforcement.
It begins with framing the Medical Council's ruling as an administrative order, not a final decision. Under law, it requires approval by the Extraordinary Council of the Medical Council, chaired by none other than Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin. Crucially, Somsak has veto power.
If Somsak vetoes the decision, it will be sent back for reconsideration. To override his veto, two-thirds of the Medical Council must reaffirm their position. Even if the Council pushes the decision through, the sanctioned doctors still have the right to file an administrative lawsuit. In fact, legal teams are reportedly preparing lawsuits as we speak.
This drawn-out process means the Medical Council's ruling cannot yet be considered a 'conclusive fact.' Therefore, the claim that Thaksin faked his illness cannot be formally presented in the Supreme Court's upcoming session on June 13.
The result? Thaksin stands a high chance of escaping further legal enforcement in the '14th Floor' case.
June is set to be a scorching month politically, not just because of Thaksin, but because the Senate Vote-Rigging Scandal will reach its climax. Next week, arrest warrants for the remaining 95 individuals are expected to be issued. This list reportedly includes more than just senators—it implicates figures from a major political party.
More damaging still is the 'second sword': the money laundering and criminal association case being pursued by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI). Once the Election Commission officially pressed charges under the Organic Act on Senate Selection, the path was cleared for the DSI to proceed with criminal prosecution.
If those implicated are ministers, they face dismissal over ethical violations. If they are executive members of a political party, it opens the door for party dissolution.
With this pressure mounting, it's no surprise that reports have surfaced suggesting Bhumjaithai may vote down the national budget bill—interpreted by some as a political counterstrike against the 'anti-Senate operation' that now threatens to dissolve their party.
This is a game with no compromises—only breaking points. And in this high-stakes showdown, the cabinet reshuffle could be the final trigger. - The Nation/ANN