German exports fall more than expected in May
The result compared with a 0.2% decrease forecast in a Reuters poll.
The statistics office publishes more detailed economic data on its website, opens new tab.
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Reuters
14 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trump fires US labor official over data and gets earlier than expected chance to reshape Fed
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Friday fired a top Labor Department official on the heels of a market-shocking weak scorecard of the U.S. job market, accusing her without evidence of manipulating the figures and adding to already growing concerns about the quality of economic data published by the federal government. In a second surprise economic policy development, the door for Trump to make an imprint on a Federal Reserve with which he clashes almost daily for not lowering interest rates opened much earlier than anticipated when Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly announced her resignation on Friday afternoon. The two developments further rattled a stock market already reeling from his latest barrage of tariff announcements and the weak jobs data. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (.SPX), opens new tab sank 1.6% in its largest daily drop in more than two months. Trump accused Erika McEntarfer, appointed by former President Joe Biden, of faking the jobs numbers. There is no evidence to back Trump's claims of data manipulation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the statistical agency that compiles the closely watched employment report as well as consumer and producer price data. A representative for the BLS did not respond to a request for comment. Friday began with BLS reporting the U.S. economy created only 73,000 jobs in July, but more stunning were net downward revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs had been created in May and June than previously reported. "We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. A Trump administration official who requested anonymity said that while all economic data is noisy, the White House has been dissatisfied with how large the revisions have been in the recent data and issues with lower survey responses. The problem started during COVID and has not been addressed in the years since. "There are these underlying problems that have been festering here for years now that have not been rectified," the person said. "The markets and companies and the government need accurate data, and like, we just weren't getting that," the official said. The BLS has already reduced the sample collection for consumer price data as well as the producer price report, citing resource constraints. The government surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 631,000 individual worksites for the employment report. The response rate has declined from 80.3% in October 2020 to about 67.1% in July, BLS data shows. A Reuters poll last month found 89 of 100 top policy experts had at least some worries about the quality of U.S. economic data, with most also concerned that authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough. In addition to the concerns over job market data, headcount reductions at BLS have resulted in it scaling back the scope of data collection for the Consumer Price Index, one of the most important gauges of U.S. inflation, watched by investors and policymakers worldwide. Trump's move fed into concerns that politics may influence data collection and publication. "Politicizing economic statistics is a self-defeating act," said Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute's Roosevelt Forward. "Credibility is far easier to lose than rebuild, and the credibility of America's economic data is the foundation on which we've built the strongest economy in the world. Blinding the public about the state of the economy has a long track record, and it never ends well." Meanwhile, Kugler's surprise decision to leave the Fed at the end of next week presents Trump an earlier-than-expected opportunity to install a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's Board of Governors. Trump has threatened to fire Powell repeatedly because the Fed chief has overseen a policymaking body that has not cut interest rates as Trump has demanded. Powell's term expires next May, although he could remain on the Fed board until January 31, 2028, if he chooses. Trump will now get to select a Fed governor to replace Kugler and finish out her term, which expires on January 31, 2026. A governor filling an unexpired term may then be reappointed to a full 14-year term. Some speculation has centered on the idea Trump might pick a potential future chair to fill that slot as a holding place. Leading candidates for the next Fed chair include Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and Fed Governor Chris Waller, a Trump appointee who this week dissented with the central bank's decision to keep rates on hold, saying he preferred to start lowering them now. Trump, as he was leaving the White House to spend the weekend at his Bedminster, New Jersey, estate, said he was happy to have the open slot to fill. "I would not read any political motivation into what [Kugler is] doing, although the consequence of what she's doing is she's calling Trump's bluff," said Derek Tang, an analyst at LH Meyer, a research firm. "She's putting the ball in his court and saying, look, you're putting so much pressure on the Fed, and you want some control over nominees, well, here's a slot."
Reuters
44 minutes ago
- Reuters
IMF lowers bar for Argentina reserves accumulation, next review due after local October elections
NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund lowered the bar for Argentina's reserve accumulation targets through 2026 in its $20 billion program and removed a review that was due before the country's October legislative elections as detailed in a report published Friday. Net international reserves accumulation targets were lowered through 2026, leading to a steeper accumulation curve as the 2027 target was kept in place. "The NIR accumulation target for end-December 2025 has been lowered to mainly reflect the initial shortfalls, which are gradually being addressed through the agreed corrective actions," the report said. The announcement came a day after the IMF board completed the first review of the $20 billion program approved in April. Disbursements of around $14 billion have been made for Argentina so far as part of this new program. "While early efforts to re-access international capital markets are commendable, Argentina's capacity to repay its Fund obligations remains subject to exceptional risks and continues to hinge on strong policy implementation to improve reserve coverage and sustain market access (at more favorable terms) by the time repayments to the Fund come due," said the report from IMF staff.
Daily Mail
3 hours ago
- Daily Mail
ALEX BRUMMER: Donald Trump's deals are a global blow
Trump tariff mayhem has not gone away. It will be years before the full impact of a fragmented trading system is known. It is remarkable that despite the random outcome of the process, with many unfinished negotiations, equity markets touched new peaks in recent days. And a resilient American economy grew at an annualised rate of 3 per cent in the second quarter. That doesn't mean all is rosy. The latest US labour market numbers were weaker than expected, with 73,000 new jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate climbed slightly to 4.2 per cent. Economic aftershocks persist. An average tariff of 15 per cent is a large tax burden for the American consumer and ripples will be felt around the globe. At the current level, the tariff impact will be six times higher than the average import duty last year. Ford, which makes more vehicles in the US than its competitors, estimates a £1.5billion hit in 2025. British luxury manufacturer Aston Martin fears that the 100,000-motor car ceiling negotiated by the Starmer government could squeeze it out of the American market. It is evident that politics and prejudice, rather than economics and commerce, have shaped decision-making in Washington. Switzerland is puzzling why it has been singled out for a 39 per cent tariff that is going to be a big hit for Manhattan watch aficionados. Pharma might be the answer. Britain escaped relatively lightly with its 10 per cent tariff. But there is still uncertainty about the barriers which may be faced by the UK's world-leading medicine companies. The lack of rapport between Trump and Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada, means the US's northern neighbour faces a punitive 35 per cent tariff. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum managed a phone call to Trump which stopped the clock for three months, and will bring some relief to the car manufacturers in her country and supermarkets which sell Mexican fruit and vegetables. A deal is better than no deal, for most. But the EU, among others, faces a substantial obstacle with its 15 per cent tariff. There are already signs that Big Tech is switching some manufacturing back to the US. American consumers and businesses will take a direct hit from the trade wars. But it is the US's main trading partners, and global output and prosperity which will suffer most hardship. Relief rally Banks and other lenders have largely been let off the hook by the Supreme Court on car finance compensation. It was feared finance firms could have been on the hook for up to £40billion if an appeals court decision had been upheld. The decision should provide a fillip for shares in Lloyds, Close Brothers and Barclays – all in the eye of the car finance hurricane. They are not alone. Chancellor Rachel Reeves cheekily sought to intervene with the Court on the grounds that if the judgement went the wrong way it could damage lending capacity and crimp her growth plans. The Court told the Treasury to get lost. Nevertheless, a damaging blow to the Square Mile has been averted. Consumers rubbing their hands at the thought of another payout on the scale of the person protection insurance (PPI) scandal will be disappointed. The court struck a serious blow against the UK's over-developed compensation culture.
