
With rates cut tipped for August, insiders explain why this winter could be the time to buy
While winter is typically a quiet time of year for buying and selling property, largely due to fewer listings, which typically peak in spring, Ray White New South Wales head of performance, Alex Pattaro is advising home buyers to beat the spring rush.
"Given the RBA's recent announcement to keep rates on hold, I think economists are even more certain of a rate cut in August," Mr Pattaro said.
"With more rate cuts on the horizon, my suggestion would be to try and buy something now because those cuts are only going to fuel more buyer confidence.
"When money is cheap everyone wants to buy," said Mr Pattaro, which only adds to greater competition and higher prices.
Peter Stephens from Nelson Alexander in Carlton North says there are several benefits to buying in winter generally, and this winter, in particular.
"While there might be less stock available in winter, it can actually be a good time to move because if you are buying in July or August, it means you can move in well before Christmas," he said.
"However, if you're not buying until spring, then you'll often have to wait to that post- Christmas period before you can move in."
"In my opinion, the right time to buy a house is when you find one you like, and if you can find one before interest rates drop any further, then even better," he said.
"While there is still a little bit of reticence and uncertainty in the market, it's a better time to jump in, rather than when that confidence returns and everyone else is trying to jump in at the same time," he said.
Strong demand
With the preliminary capital city auction clearance rate reaching 74.7 per cent last week, the highest early clearance rate since the first week of July last year, there are signs buyer confidence has already started to return.
Independent property researcher Cameron Kusher said the strong preliminary clearance rates - the highest they've been in over a year - pointed to increased buyer competition and prices.
"Recent auction clearance rates highlight there is clearly strong demand for housing currently," he said.
"This strong demand is expected to increase as interest rates fall over the coming months, which is expected to result in even more active buyers," he said.
"These stronger clearance rates are also indicative of property price increases, which I expect will continue over the coming months," he added.
Some experts also believe that vendors who list their properties for sale in winter, outside of peak selling periods, often doing so out of necessity and therefore may be more motivated to sell, increasing your chances of buying a home at a lower price.
Others argue that while there is typically more stock on the market in spring, it is not necessarily better quality.
Get in before spring
Mr Pattaro therefore urges buyers, who are serious about buying, not to hold off for spring.
"Now is a very good time to buy. People are back from overseas and school holidays. We're seeing steady price growth and already some more stock reaching the market."
"I also think that with any further rate cuts, we might also start to see more investors buying properties again, so that pool of buyers is just going to get bigger as money becomes cheaper," he added.
An expansion of the Federal Home Guarantee, which comes into effect from January 2026, and sees all first home buyers eligible to purchase a home with a 5 per cent deposit, without lenders' mortgage insurance, is also likely to drive increased competition in the first home buyer market.
"I think that's another factor a lot of people have forgotten about, which will also fuel that part of the market, so my advice would be not to wait," Mr Pattaro said.
As well as reaping the benefits of less competition and more subdued price growth this winter, agents say viewing a home in winter enables you to actually see how a home looks and feels during the coldest months of the year, including the aspect of the home and whether it attracts good winter sun.
It takes the guesswork out of how your new home will perform during the most challenging time of the year in many states.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

News.com.au
7 hours ago
- News.com.au
Donald Trump's tariffs have a large role to play in Australia's interest rates cycle
When the RBA handed down its most interest rate decision last month, it shocked economists and the public by holding the cash rate at 3.85 per cent. The widely held consensus had been strongly in favour of another 0.25 per cent cut to follow the previous one in May. In the weeks since the Reserve Bank's decision, economic data has been mixed, with some elements such as the recent retail sales report providing support for the RBA's message of caution, while on the other hand, the recent substantial rise in unemployment was far more supportive of the cash rate being cut. In several important ways the RBA's uncertainty about the path forward for interest rates is arguably justified. Trump, Trade And Global Uncertainty At a global scale, the implementation of the Trump Administration's various tariffs and threats of even greater trade barriers to nation's not willing to make a swift agreement with the United States remains a source of major questions for central banks around the world. The challenge posed by tariffs to the path of interest rates was recently summed up by JPMorgan Chase (the world's most valuable bank) CEO Jamie Dimon at an event hosted by the Irish government. 'The market is pricing a 20% chance (of rising interest rates). I would price in a 40-50% chance I would put that as a cause for concern,' Dimon said. Dimon went on to cite the Trump administration's tariffs, the restructuring of global trade and the growing U.S government budget deficit as inflationary forces impacting the path forward for interest rates. While U.S interest rates can and do rise and fall independently of those of other nations, they are also the most important global benchmark. Theoretically, the U.S Federal Reserve holding a higher interest rate than the RBA can have two major knock on effects for Australia. It can force a repricing of Australian interest rates to better reflect the global benchmark. Or if the RBA chooses to allow the distance between the RBA cash rate and the U.S federal funds rate to expand, it places downward pressure on the value of the Australian dollar in a vacuum. A Mixed Bag For Australia At a domestic level, there is also a high degree of uncertainty impacting the path forward for interest rates. With government currently the driving force behind broader economic growth and employment growth in generally taxpayer funded sectors of the economy (public administration, education and, healthcare and social assistance) the main driver of the resilience of the labour market, it's challenging for the RBA to know exactly when a rate cut would be appropriate. Meanwhile, the deeply mixed nature of retail sales growth depending on the lens with which it is viewed also complicates matters. For example, looking at the latest headline retail sales showing a 1.2 per cent rise in turnover or June in a vacuum, it would be hard to justify a rate cut. But when the focus is shifted to an inflation adjusted figure that looks at retail sales per working age adult, the data for the June quarter reveals a return to recession in per capita terms. This is due to expansion of the population, the vast majority of which is occurring via migration acting as more or less the only driver of the retail economy in aggregate. History And Market Pricing Based on RBA rate cut cycles seen in the last 35 years, where the cash rate has been cut by at least one percentage point, the average rate cut cycle sees mortgage rates fall by approximately 33.3 per cent. If we remove the rate cut cycles driven by major emergencies such as the Global Financial Crisis and the early 1990s recession, the average reduction in mortgage rates falls to 27.0 per cent. If we were to see a similar reduction in interest rates today, we would see a total fall in the cash rate of approximately 1.75 percentage points. This would leave the average payable rate on a variable mortgage for an owner occupier at 4.58 per cent. In terms of the pricing of the future path of interest rates from financial markets, the next full 0.25 per cent rate cut is priced in for the RBA's August meeting, with the next expected to follow in November. Overall, market pricing has interest rates falling by a total 1.33 percentage points, with the cash rate hitting a low of 3.02 per cent during the middle of next year. The Outlook For Rates While the direction of interest rates is ultimately in the hands of the Reserve Bank, under the current circumstances government is also playing a significantly greater role in influencing the path forward than has been historically normal. With the growth in the domestic consumer economy concentrated in the 65 and over age demographic and otherwise reliant on population growth, the level of migration set by the Albanese government will be vital in determining to what degree aggregate consumer demand is weak enough to warrant further cuts in interest rates. Meanwhile, the level of employment growth stemming from government policy will also be a key consideration. If the current pullback continues without a corresponding increase from the private sector, the urgency and magnitude with which the RBA approaches the ongoing rate cut cycle may intensify significantly. Ultimately, it's entirely possible that events beyond our shores end up playing a significant role in the direction of Australian interest rates, whether that be as a result of President Trump's tariffs or the Chinese economy slowing more swiftly than expected due to the ongoing trade conflict and still simmering domestic economic issues.

News.com.au
20 hours ago
- News.com.au
Revealed: Where Townsville buyers are flocking
The Townsville suburb buyers can't get enough of has been revealed, with 512 properties selling in the one area last financial year. The latest PropTrack data showed buyers were flocking to Kirwan, with 512 homes sold in suburb from July 2024 to June 2025. This placed it well above second place Kelso, where 288 homes exchanged hands in the same time. According to the PropTrack data, 5716 residential properties sold in the Townsville region in the year to June 2025. That works out to be about 16 per day. Coming in behind Kirwan and Kelso, Burdell had 254 home sale in the 2024/2025 financial year. Rounding the top five were North Ward, with 250 sales, and Mount Louisa, with 194 sales. A look at some of NQ's cheapest homes The most house sales were in Kirwan (449), Kelso (288), Burdell (254), Mount Louisa (194) and Bushland Beach (181). The most units were sold in North Ward (210), Townsville City (175), West End (91), Rosslea (67) and South Townsville (64). Ray White Townsville managing director, Giovanni Spinella said the number of sales would obviously be higher in suburbs with larger populations, but popularity also had an influence. 'The top five suburbs are also the most wanted suburbs in Townsville right now,' he said. 'Kirwan is a family location, North Ward is a lifestyle suburb, while Mt Louisa and Burdell are newer suburbs with modern homes. 'Those newer suburbs are not only popular with locals, but with the investor market looking for low maintenance properties.' Mr Spinella said in the current market, the popularity of a suburb often came down to affordability. 'Typically, Kelso, Rasmussen and Condon are still in the first homebuyer price bracket of $550,000 to $600,000,' he said. 'That is where most of the stock in that price point can be found. 'Kirwan has been exceeding that, but $550,000 to $600,000 can still get you a good home, and that's where we're still seeing high demand at open homes. 'Mt Louisa has been popular for similar reasons, hovering around that $600,000 to $700,000, which is still attainable for some first homebuyers. 'Investors are also pushing their budgets to that $650,000 price point as long as the returns are there.' The July PropTrack Home Price Index revealed Townsville home prices increased for the 25th consecutive month in July, up 16.69 per cent year-on-year and 1.21 per cent quarter-on-quarter to a median of $551,000.


Mercury
a day ago
- Mercury
APRA's refusal to revise the 3 per cent stress test keeps Aussies locked in mortgage prison
Are you stuck in mortgage prison? Picture: Jake Nowakowski ANALYSIS If you're in mortgage prison, you just had a parole hearing. And the result? Parole denied. That was the outcome when the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced recently that it would be keeping the 3 per cent mortgage repayment 'stress test' buffer in place. That's right, we're not being prudent enough! And we must be regulated. The buffer dictates that anyone applying for a home loan is 'stress tested' at a loan repayment rate 3 per cent higher than what they will actually be paying if successful in their loan application. MORE: Shock RBA twist as home prices surge So, if you want to borrow money at 6 per cent, the bank will check your income and financial habits to make sure you could make repayments at 9 per cent interest. You know, just in case there is a series of rate rises. They don't want you to default and lose that dream home. Only problem is, for a lot of people, the rule is stopping them getting a home at all. Let's be real here. Interest rates are coming down. They are not going to go up 3 per cent in the near term. The stress buffer started out at 2 per cent in 2014. It went to 2.5 per cent in 2019 on the back of a growth cycle that left many borrowers overexposed to the risk of a market correction. It was rightly increased to 3 per cent in October 2021 when the official cash rate was at 0.1 per cent and there were variable rate home loans with interest rates below 2 per cent. The only way was up at that time. Mortgage prison is not where you want to be. Now is a completely different story. We have seen a cost of living crisis, stagnant wages, and rising house prices, yet someone who has somehow managed to scrape a deposit together needs to be able to show they can make repayments at a level not seen from variable interest rates since before the 2008 GFC. MORE: 34-year-old goes from broke to $100m This is especially difficult for young people, as noted by my colleague Jonathan Chancellor in his Sydney Weekend column, who quoted Michael Sukkar, the Coalition's shadow housing minster during the 2025 election campaign, criticising APRA's 'one size fits all' rule as preventing nearly 40 per cent of first home buyers from getting a loan. That type of outcome is disastrous for future generations. But possibly the most absurd thing is that some people already with a mortgage who are struggling to make repayments might see a loan out there with a lower interest rate, but they won't be able to refinance to it because they don't pass the stress test. They might be paying 6 per cent currently, but if they wanted to pay 5.5 per cent, they'd have to prove they can pay 8.5 per cent. The mortgage stress test can cause plenty of stress for would-be borrowers. MORE:Aus bank slashes rates to lowest level in two years Just that 0.5 per cent difference would save you more than $300 a month on a $1 million mortgage and $114,000 over 30 years. Granted, there is a workaround for some lenders, who are able to use discretion to assess some borrowers at 1 or 2 per cent buffers, but for those who don't qualify? They are stuck in mortgage prison. And it's looking like APRA hasn't just left the keys in its 'other pants', but has thrown them away altogether. The 3 per cent buffer stayed in place even when the cash rate was at 4.35 per cent and there were borrowers being assessed at 10 per cent in order to get a 7 per cent home loan. Now that the cash rate and variable rates are both on the way down, adjusting the buffer is becoming less urgent, so expect more borrowers to miss out as APRA stays firm.