CNBC TechCheck Evening Edition: July 3, 2025
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CNBC
34 minutes ago
- CNBC
Economist Nouriel Roubini sees a ‘mini stagflationary shock' coming in the second half of 2025
An economist and investor nicknamed "Dr. Doom" sees a rough patch ahead for the U.S. economy, but isn't advocating any panicked selling. Nouriel Roubini told CNBC that he expects the core personal consumption expenditures index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric — to reach about 3.5% by the end of the year, and economic growth to weaken and possibly turn negative. Best known for calling the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Roubini said the second half will amount to "a mini stagflationary shock," and that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts until at least December. That view includes an expectation of a "mild" resolution to trade negotiations that ends with many countries facing a 15% rate, the economist said. "I'm not expecting, certainly, anything close to April 2," Roubini said, referring to the tariff levels announced by President Donald Trump that day that sparked a steep market sell-off. Roubini, a Harvard-trained economist, has a long track record in the academia, government and the private sector. The "Dr. Doom" moniker refers to numerous macroeconomic warnings he has issued throughout his career. His hit rate is not perfect, but he was early in warning about the financial crisis and a virus-induced recession in 2020. He is also one of the portfolio managers on the Atlas America Fund (USAF) , an ETF launched late last year that aims to guard against economic risks from structurally higher inflation to climate change. The fund is designed to be less volatile than the stock market but is "not a portfolio for doomsday," Roubini said. The fund is still small and thinly traded, with only about $17 million in assets, according to FactSet. But performance has been solid. The multi-asset fund has gained more than 5% since inception last November. That trailis the S & P 500 , but USAF has shown its defensive mettle, falling less than 3% in the days following the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, when U.S. stocks soon fell roughly 20%. USAF 1Y mountain The Atlas America Fund saw a smaller drawdown in April than broad stock market indexes. "We don't particularly want outsized returns in one month. We'd rather have the slow and steady uptick, which is exactly what we've been seeing," said Puneet Agarwal, one of other portfolio managers for USAF. The portfolio, which includes large positions in gold, short-term U.S. government debt and exposure to agricultural commodities, has changed some since the fund's launch. USAF has recently added exposure to defense technology and cybersecurity stocks, and bought short-term inflation-protected bonds, while dialing back holdings in real estate, Agarwal said. The fund's large bet on gold helped it outperform the stock market earlier this year, but also contributed to USAF's relatively sluggish performance in June. Roubini said the bet on gold is part of a longer-term theory that the world is moving away from the U.S. dollar. "We're not expecting things to crash. But the trend is clear and it is going [in] one direction," Roubini said.
CNBC
6 hours ago
- CNBC
Trade deadlines and oil drama set the stage for a crunch week in global markets
CNBC's assignment desk has a conundrum this week: how to approach July, 9. Why does this specific date matter? It's the deadline for trade negotiations between the U.S. and European Union before the tariffs axe (maybe) falls once again. But President Donald Trump's tendency to move deadlines makes it tricky to commit to a big coverage plan when the date could become redundant. However — as we saw with the surprise framework agreed between the U.S. and China in Geneva back in April — you also can't afford to underplay the deadlines' significance. What we do know is that a full trade deal is "impossible" before the deadline, in the words of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and that the best Brussels can hope for is an "agreement in principle." As CNBC anchor Silvia Amaro reported last week, the EU is banking on at least a bare-bones deal to show progress and avoid the 50% levy on products exported from the bloc. We should get some clues from Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday, as European finance ministers gather for their regular meeting in Brussels. Another assignment that is much more definitive: the OPEC Seminar. The circus rolls back into Vienna as the oil producers' International Seminar takes place at the city's grand Hofburg Palace on Wednesday and Thursday. The meeting offers delegates two days of discussion and analysis on energy security and investment. It's a far cry from the days of the OPEC media scrum at the concrete headquarters on the other side of the Austrian capital. As a junior producer, I was lucky enough to cover OPEC with CNBC Anchor Steve Sedgwick. Before Covid, these manic biannual meetings saw journalists fight for soundbites from the world's most influential OPEC ministers. In those days, the scrum was affectionately known by a much less polite term… OPEC+ members — a wider group that includes non-OPEC oil producers, including Russia — meet this weekend to decide on another (highly anticipated) output hike amid a volatile month for crude prices. At the Seminar, ministers will also be joined by the CEOs of some of the world's largest energy companies, including BP and Shell. CEOs Murray Auchincloss and Wael Sawan will be the center of attention as market watchers and journalists alike look for any clues that a much-denied takeover could still be in the cards.
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Yahoo
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Is Benefiting From Domestic Production, Says Jim Cramer
We recently published . First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) is an American solar energy company that makes and sells solar panels. The firm's shares have experienced significant volatility in 2025 and are flat year-to-date. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)'s stock gained an unbelievable 52% in May after a House panel surprised investors and left a lot of tax credits in place for solar energy. However, the shares sank by 18% in June after a Senate committee proposed ending credits for solar firms in 2028. Yet, the shares have gained 29% since late June, which Cramer believes might be influenced due to the firm's domestic manufacturing exposure: 'First Solar, which was up a lot yesterday because they make it here.' A solar panel farm with an orange sky illuminating the vast landscape. The CNBC TV host had last discussed First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) in January. Here's what he said: 'It is a very inexpensive stock. I'm telling you, I'm still reeling from the fact that NXT, Nextracker… actually reported an upside surprise tonight. And… when I look into that and it says that it's good for solar, I will tell people who belong to the Charitable Trust, to CNBC Investing Club, whether it's time to get a little more aggressive on solar.' While we acknowledge the potential of FSLR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
