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China's Industrial Profit Declined in May

China's Industrial Profit Declined in May

China's industrial profit declined in May from a year earlier, reversing gains seen in the prior month, as weak demand and U.S. trade tariffs weighed on profitability.
Industrial profit fell 9.1% year over year in May, tumbling from April's 3.0% rise, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday.

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CHARLEBOIS: Why matcha may be the next pumpkin spice
CHARLEBOIS: Why matcha may be the next pumpkin spice

Yahoo

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CHARLEBOIS: Why matcha may be the next pumpkin spice

If you're a matcha drinker, brace yourself — prices are likely heading up, and TikTok may be to blame. What began as a traditional Japanese tea used in ceremonial settings has rapidly become a global wellness staple. Canada is no exception. Fuelled by social media and a surge in health-conscious consumer habits, matcha has gone mainstream. The Canadian market alone was valued at about $300 million in 2024, projected to reach $375 million by 2025 and nearly double to $700 million by 2035, according to Market Research Future. That represents a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% over the next decade. Today, matcha is found not only in lattes but in smoothies, baked goods, energy bars, and even cosmetics. Its rise reflects a broader trend in Canadian food culture: The growing appeal of global ingredients that promise both functionality and indulgence. But matcha comes with a key economic constraint — supply. The production process is uniquely labour-intensive and deeply artisanal. Shade-grown, hand-picked, steamed, and stone-ground, authentic matcha — particularly from Japan's Uji region or parts of China — is difficult to industrialize. Canada, due to climate, cannot grow matcha domestically, meaning demand must be met through imports. The market's tightness leaves it exposed to price volatility as interest surges. Already, we're seeing the effects. Ceremonial-grade matcha that sells for roughly $28 per 100 grams in Japan can retail for as much as $120 in Canada — a markup exceeding 300%. Even culinary-grade matcha, which typically costs $5 to $14 in Japan, often doubles in price on Canadian shelves. As demand continues to grow, especially for premium varieties, prices could climb by another 30-40% in the coming years. There's also concern over authenticity. As matcha's profile rises, so too does the presence of lower-quality substitutes — powders that resemble matcha in colour but lack its nutritional properties and distinctive taste profile. Consumers may not always know the difference until they've overpaid. Cafes and restaurants are already reporting supply challenges, and many are struggling to keep pace with customer expectations. This isn't a passing inconvenience — it's an early sign of a demand-driven imbalance that may persist. Unlike fleeting trends like celery juice or butter boards, matcha's growth is supported by habit formation. Its caffeine content, antioxidant profile, and calming effects appeal especially to Millennials and Gen Z consumers looking for a healthier, more stable alternative to coffee. The fact that the industry — not just consumers — is embracing matcha also signals staying power. In many ways, matcha is positioned similarly to pumpkin spice two decades ago — only this time, with the added push of social media. For traditional coffee drinkers, there may be a silver lining. As matcha draws more market share, coffee demand may stabilize. That's welcome news after a year in which retail coffee prices rose 25%, according to Statistics Canada. In short, matcha is no longer niche. It's a case study in how consumer health trends, social media, and global trade dynamics can converge to reshape what — and how — we drink. If you're a coffee drinker, you might want to start promoting matcha yourself. Your wallet could thank you.

World economy faces 'pivotal moment', central bank body BIS says
World economy faces 'pivotal moment', central bank body BIS says

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timean hour ago

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World economy faces 'pivotal moment', central bank body BIS says

By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) -Trade tensions and fractious geopolitics risk exposing deep fault lines in the global financial system, central bank umbrella body the Bank for International Settlements, said in its latest assessment of the state of the world economy. Outgoing head of the BIS, often dubbed the central bankers' central bank, Agustín Carstens, said the U.S.-driven trade war and other policy shifts were fraying the long-established economic order. He said the global economy was at a "pivotal moment", entering a "new era of heightened uncertainty and unpredictability", which was testing public trust in institutions, including central banks. The bank's report is published just over a week before U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariff deadline of July 9 and comes after six months of intense geopolitical upheaval. When asked about Trump's criticisms of U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, which have included Trump labelling the Fed chair as "stupid", he was not overly critical. "It is to be expected at certain points in time that there will be friction," former Mexican central bank governor Carstens told reporters, referring to the relationship between governments and central banks. "It is almost by design". DOLLAR DROP The BIS' annual report, published on Sunday, is viewed as an important gauge of central bankers' thinking given the Switzerland-based forum's regular meetings of top policymakers. Rising protectionism and trade fragmentation were "particular concerning" as they were exacerbating the already decades-long decline in economic and productivity growth, Carstens said. There is also evidence that the world economy is becoming less resilient to shocks, with population ageing, climate change, geopolitics and supply chain issues all contributing to a more volatile environment. The post-COVID spike in inflation seems to have had a lasting impact on the public's perception about price moves too, a study in the report showed. High and rising public debt levels are increasing the financial system's vulnerability to interest rates and reducing governments' ability to spend their way out of crises. "This trend cannot continue," Carstens said referring to the rising debt levels and he said that higher military spending could push the debt up further. Hyun Song Shin, the BIS's main economic adviser, also flagged the sharp fall in the dollar. It is down 10% since the start of the year and on track to be its biggest H1 drop since the free-floating exchange rate era began in the early 1970s. He said there was no evidence that this was the start of a "great rotation" away from U.S. assets as some economists have suggested, but acknowledged that it was still too early to know given sovereign funds and central banks move slowly. Shorter-term analysis, though, showed "hedging" by non-U.S. investors holding Treasuries and other U.S. assets appears to have made an "important contribution" to the dollar's slide over the last few months. "We haven't seen anything (yet) that would give us any cause for alarm," Shin added. The BIS had already published one part of its report last week that gave a stark warning about the rapid rise of so-called stablecoins. In terms of the BIS' own finances, it said it made a net profit of 843.7 million IMF SDR ($1.2 billion), while its total comprehensive income reached a record high of SDR 3.4 billion ($5.3 billion) and currency deposits at the bank also reached a new high. "It is important that the BIS has the highest creditworthiness out there," Carstens said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

What's Next For Nike's Stock?
What's Next For Nike's Stock?

Forbes

timean hour ago

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What's Next For Nike's Stock?

CHONGQING, CHINA - JUNE 16: A double-level Nike store is seen inside a shopping mall on June 16, ... More 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo by) Nike (NYSE: NKE) stock has increased by over 20% in the past five days; however, it still remains down 5% year-to-date, trailing the S&P 500's 4% rise. The company disclosed fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations — revenue fell by 12% to $11.1 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Net income dropped 86% to $211 million, or $0.14 per share, compared to $1.5 billion ($0.99 per share) the previous year—but still outperformed predictions. Investors harbor a sense of cautious optimism that the most challenging times may be behind the sportswear titan as it navigates through a tough turnaround. However, if you're seeking an upside with a smoother experience than picking an individual stock, you might want to consider the High Quality Portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved returns greater than 91% since inception. Also, check out – Cyngn Stock: Should You Buy The Nvidia Hype? A Tough Year in the Rearview For fiscal 2025, Nike reported total revenue of $46.3 billion, a 10% decline, and net income of $3.2 billion, representing a 44% decrease from the previous year. Revenue for the Nike Brand fell 9% to $44.7 billion, with reductions across all regions. Digital sales suffered particularly, plummeting 20% as Nike attempted to rebalance its direct-to-consumer approach. At the same time, wholesale revenue dropped 9%, although Nike-owned physical outlets remained stable. Nike's profit margins were affected as it resorted to discounting and clearance sales to manage excess inventory. This, combined with a return to lower-margin wholesale channels, put pressure on profitability. The Road Ahead: A Strategic Reset Nike has not provided full-year guidance for fiscal 2026 but has laid out plans to realign its operations around key sports categories, streamline the supply chain, and rejuvenate product storytelling. Tariffs are projected to raise costs by approximately $1 billion this year — a challenge Nike seeks to mitigate through pricing strategies, sourcing adjustments, and operational efficiencies. Importantly, the company plans to reduce its reliance on the China-based supply chain from 16% to the high single digits by the end of the year. In the short term, Nike anticipates a decrease in Q1 sales by a mid-single-digit percentage, with gross margin compression ranging from 3.5 to 4.25 percentage points, including a 1-point impact from tariffs. Revenue for the current first quarter is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage, which marks a considerable improvement from recent double-digit drops. Valuation: Opportunity or Value Trap? At around $72 per share, Nike is trading at roughly 41 times its projected 2026 earnings — a significant premium compared to its three-year average of 28 times. Consensus forecasts predict a 1% revenue decline in FY 2026, followed by a possible rebound with 5% growth in FY 2027. The investment perspective now hinges entirely on the effectiveness of Nike's turnaround initiatives. If management is unable to stabilize margins and reignite top-line growth, the present valuation may turn out to be unsustainable. Downturn Risk: Not a Defensive Play Nike has demonstrated clear susceptibility during previous market downturns. In 2020, shares fell nearly 40% within a few quarters, and during the 2022 inflation-driven decline, the stock experienced a 53% peak-to-trough drop — which was substantially worse than the S&P 500. Should macroeconomic conditions weaken once more, Nike could face further downside risk. A 50% decrease from current levels would lower the stock to approximately $35 — a feasible scenario for a company with high volatility and cyclical earnings. Bottom Line Nike is at a pivotal moment. It's exhibiting early signs of stabilization but continues to confront margin pressures, macro risks, and valuation concerns. Although its brand remains robust and its long-term strategy appears promising, effective execution will be crucial. As with any investment, it's important to carefully assess the advantages and disadvantages and consider diversified alternatives to mitigate risk. The Trefis High-Quality portfolio, featuring a collection of 30 stocks, boasts a history of comfortable outperformance compared to the S&P 500 over the last four years. What accounts for this? As a cohort, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index, with less market turbulence, as illustrated by HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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