Europeans largely support hikes in national defence budget, poll finds

Euronews

23-06-2025

Support for increasing national defence spending appears widespread in Europe although most seem to think that becoming independent from the US when it comes to security and defence before the end of the decade is impossible, a major new survey has found.
Most of the more than 16,400 respondents polled across 12 European countries by the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) stated that they are in favour of their countries upping their national defence spending with clear majorities in Poland, Denmark, the UK, Estonia, and Portugal.
Pluralities in Romania (50%), Spain (46%), France (45%), Hungary (45%), Germany (47%), and Switzerland (40%) also expressed support for increased defence spending with Italy the only country polled where the majority (57%) was either "somewhat" or "strongly" opposed the idea.
Yet the poll also finds that scepticism over the EU's ability to become independent from the US in terms of its defence and security over the coming five years runs high.
Only in Denmark and Portugal did a majority of respondents feel optimistic about achieving independence from the US before the turn of the decade. Most respondents in France and Romania also seemed to believe it is possible (44% and 45% respectively).
But most people in Poland, Estonia, and Spain thought the reverse. In Italy and Hungary, a majority of respondents (54% and 51% respectively) see EU autonomy on security and defence as "very difficult" or "practically impossible" to achieve in the next five years.
Germans were meanwhile more or less evenly split on the question, with 44% thinking it possible to achieve, and 45% seeing it as difficult or rather impossible.
However, support to Ukraine is not contingent on continued aid from Washington, the survey finds.
Majorities or pluralities in 11 of the 12 countries polled are against the idea of Europe withdrawing its military support for Ukraine, pushing Ukraine to give up on territory occupied by Russia, or lifting economic sanctions on Russia even if the US shifts its policy across these points.
The Donald Trump effect
The results are driven in part by Donald Trump's return to the White House and the anti-European rhetoric he and some in his administration have used over trade and defence which has given rise to anti-American sentiment in some European countries.
Still, although a majority of people in 10 countries thought Trump is damaging the relationship between the EU and the US, most are of the opinion that the relationship will be repaired once he leaves office.
The survey comes a day before leaders of the 32 NATO member states gather in The Hague for their annual summit.
Trump has demanded that the alliance's defence spending target be raised from its current 2% of GDP level to 5%, and cast doubt on Washington's long-term support for European security.
The proposal currently on the table plans for an increase to 3.5% on core military spending, with an additional 1.5% on defence-related investments that would include infrastructure, cybersecurity and money to boost a whole-of-society approach to security.
Yet Spain has poured cold water over the new target, which has to be unanimously approved by all allies, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez writing in a letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte last week that Madrid "cannot commit to a specific spending target in terms of GDP".
"For Spain, committing to a 5% target would not only be unreasonable, but also counterproductive, as it would move Spain away from optimal spending and it would hinder the EU's ongoing efforts to strengthen its security and defence ecosystem," Sánchez wrote in the letter that was seen by The Associated Press.
The ECFR survey however notes that respondents in Spain were slightly more worried about their country not spending enough on defence, at the expense of their security than they were about spending too much on defence at the expense of other areas of public spending. The vast majority though did not pronounce themselves on the issue.
In fact on this question, the 12 countries were evenly split, with Denmark, the UK, Poland, Romania, and Germany joining their Spanish counterparts and the other six countries favouring the other stance.
The EU has sought to allay some of its fear with its programme to boost defence production and deployment that it hopes will prompt member states to invest €800 billion into the sector over the next four years.
The plan's main financial firepower comes from allowing member states to deviate from the bloc's stringent fiscal rules provided the additional spending is poured exclusively into defence. The other pillar, called SAFE, would see the Commission provide loans to member states at preferential rates than most would if they raised the money themselves on the market. The EU executive is also allowing untapped EU funds previously earmarked for other programmes to be repurposed for defence spending.
Defence should also be one of the key topics on the agenda of a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday.