Trump weapons pledge marks major step forward for Ukraine
This is a significant moment.Less than two weeks ago, there was horror in Kyiv at news that the Pentagon had suspended military shipments to Ukraine, including Patriots.The decision-making surrounding that announcement remains unclear, but on Monday, Trump once again tried to make light if it, saying it had been made in the knowledge that this deal would be struck."We were pretty sure this was going to happen, so we did a little bit of a pause," the president said.Now, thanks to some tortuous negotiations, many of them involving Rutte, the weapons can continue to flow without Washington picking up the tab."We're in for a lot of money," the president said, "and we just don't want to do it any more."The deal is a personal triumph for Rutte, the "Trump whisperer", who has flattered and encouraged the president, in part by helping to secure a member-wide Nato commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence.As they sat side by side in the Oval Office, Rutte continued to flatter Trump, calling the latest deal "really big" and saying it was "totally logical" that European members of Nato pay for it.
A number of countries, he said, were lining up to participate, including the UK, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands."And this is only the first wave," he said. "There will be more."In a separate and rather characteristic development, Trump threatened Moscow with a new deadline: if Vladimir Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire deal in the next 50 days, Russia and its trading partners will be hit with 100% secondary tariffs.Trump threatens Russia with tariffs while unveiling new Ukraine weapons planIt's a novel approach, which Kyiv and members of the US congress have been urging for some time: pressure Russia by targeting countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas, like China and India.Trump's move comes as the US Senate continues to work on a bill that would impose much stiffer sanctions.The president said the Senate bill, which envisages 500% secondary tariffs, could be "very good" but added that it was "sort of meaningless after a while because at a certain point it doesn't matter".As always, the precise details of the president's threat remain somewhat vague.But whatever happens in the coming weeks and months, Monday felt like something of a turning point. A US president finally moving away from his perplexing faith in Vladimir Putin, while still giving the Russian leader time to come to the negotiating table.It's definitely not a return to Joe Biden's pledges to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes," but nor is it quite the neutral stance that has infuriated Ukraine and its western allies.Trump appears to have guaranteed that the all-important US weapons pipeline to Ukraine will remain open for now – provided others pay for it.But 50 days will feel like a very long time to Ukrainians, who are on the receiving end of near-nightly drone and missile bombardment.Nothing Trump has done seems likely to put an immediate stop to this.
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Reuters
32 minutes ago
- Reuters
For Europe, 30% US tariff would hammer trade, force export model rethink
BRUSSELS, July 15 (Reuters) - The 30% tariff on European goods threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would, if implemented, be a game-changer for Europe, wiping out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce and forcing a rethink of its export-led economic model. European ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday remained convinced they can bring Trump back from the brink before his Aug. 1 deadline and reach a deal that would keep the $1.7 trillion two-way trading relationship broadly intact. But the wild swings in Trump's mood towards the European Union - which he has sometimes labelled as friendly and at other times accused of being set up specifically to destroy the United States - keep the 30% threat very much alive for now. "It will be almost impossible to continue the trading as we are used to in a transatlantic relationship," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said of the 30% rate before meeting ministers and officials of the 27 EU capitals to give them an update. "Practically it prohibits the trade." EU officials had been hoping they could limit the damage by agreeing a baseline tariff around 10% - the one currently in place - with additional carve-outs for key sectors like autos. Last year the United States accounted for a fifth of all EU exports - its largest partner. Trump's bugbear is the $235 billion U.S. deficit generated by the goods component of that trade, even though the U.S. earns a surplus on services. The impact of making European exports - from pharmaceuticals to autos, machinery or wine - too expensive to be viable for American consumers would be instantly tangible. Economists at Barclays estimate an average tariff rate on EU goods of 35% including both reciprocal and sectoral duties combined with a 10% retaliation from Brussels would shave 0.7 percentage points off euro zone output. This would eat up most of the euro zone's already meagre growth and likely lead the European Central Bank to cut its 2% deposit rate further. "Inflation would likely undershoot the 2% target more deeply, and for longer, prompting a more accommodative monetary policy stance – with the deposit rate potentially reaching 1% by (March 2026)," the Barclays economists said. An earlier estimate by German economic institute IW found tariffs of 20% to 50% would cost Germany's 4.3 trillion euro economy more than 200 billion euros between now and 2028. While arguably small in percentage terms, that lost activity could still upend Chancellor Friedrich Merz's plans to push through tax cuts and spend more on renewing the country's long neglected infrastructure. "We would have to postpone large parts of our economic policy efforts because it would interfere with everything and hit the German export industry to the core," Merz said at the weekend of a 30% rate. Further down the line, it raises bigger questions over how Europe recoups the lost activity to generate the tax revenues and jobs needed to fund ambitions ranging from caring for ageing populations to military rearmament. Under its existing policy of trade diversification, the EU has done well in striking preliminary deals with new partners but - as the continued delay over completion of the giant EU-Mercosur trade pact shows - it has struggled to get them fully signed and sealed. "The EU does not have different markets to pull up to and sell into," Varg Folkman, policy analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank said of the long and complex timelines involved in classic free trade deals. Some observers have argued the stand-off with Trump is what the EU needs to complete long-delayed reforms of its single market, boosting domestic demand and rebalancing its economy away from the exports which account for around half of output. The International Monetary Fund has estimated the EU's own internal barriers to the free flow of activity are the equivalent of tariffs of 44% for goods and 110% for services. Mooted reforms such as creating freer cross-border capital markets have made little headway in more than a decade. "It is easier said than done. There isn't an agreement to deepen. The barriers are imposed by the EU members themselves to benefit their own," Folkman said of the web of national regulations. How all this plays into the EU's negotiating strategy in the less than three weeks ahead remains to be seen - but for now, the bloc has stuck to its line of being open to talks while readying retaliatory measures if they break down. One thing that might persuade Trump to reach a deal, some European observers suggest, is that the lingering uncertainty may by itself push back the timing of the Federal Reserve interest rate cut the U.S. president so desires. "The latest developments on the trade war suggest that it will take more time to get a sense of the 'landing zone' on of course raises uncertainty for everyone, including the Fed," AXA chief economist Gilles Moec said. "With this new for cutting quickly get even harder to justify."
The Guardian
35 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Trump shrugs off Farage's call for parliament to be recalled so he can address MPs during state visit
Update: Date: 2025-07-15T07:36:04.000Z Title: Donald Trump Content: Good morning. has given an interview to the BBC's chief North America correspondent, Gary O'Donoghue, and, while the most important lines are about Russia, it contains some interesting snippets about the UK. Trump is making an unprecedented second state visit in September and yesterday a mini Westminster row broke out about the timing of the trip (starting just after the Commons starts its conference season recess), and the fact this means Trump isn't being invited to give a speech to MPs and peers. No 10 implied yesterday that this was just a scheduling coincidence – and nothing to do with the fact that some parliamentarians are bitterly opposed to hosting Trump, who is widely reviled as a threat to American democracy. Yesterday Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, said (to GB News, of course) that parliament should be recalled so that Trump could get the chance to speak in the Royal Gallery or Westminster Hall (the venues normally used for these events). But, when O'Donoghue asked Trump about this, he discovered that the US president doesn't agree with Farage, and isn't bothered about the prospect of not getting the President Macron treatment. Asked if he would like parliament to be recalled so he could make a speech there, Trump replied: I think let them go and have a good time [ie, let MPs have their recess]. I don't want that to … Asked what he wanted to achieve from the state visit, Trump said: I think just we I want to have a good time and respect to King Charles because he's a great gentleman. We have not heard Farage's reaction yet. His X feed still has this video near the top, featuring the Reform UK leader calling for the recall of parliament. Parliament must be recalled for 's state visit to the does @Keir_Starmer think Macron is a better friend of Britain than Trump? Trump's response suggests Farage might be less in touch with the views of the president, and the Maga movement, than he sometimes claims. And, given Trump's unpopularity in the UK generally, it is probably not wise for Farage to appear even more sensitive to any slights to Trump's dignity than the man himself. I will post more from the interview soon. Here is the agenda for the day. 9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet. 9.30am: Rachel Reeves, chancellor, announces a package of reforms to financial services in Leeds. 9.30am: James Cleverly, the former Tory home secretary, gives a speech to the IPPR thinktank. 9.30am: The Department for Work and Pensions publishes universal credit claim figures, including for the first time details of foreign nationals getting UC. 10am: Sir Adrian Montague, chair of Thames Water, and Chris Weston, its chief executive, give evidence to the Commons environment committee. 10.15am: Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, and colleagues give evidence to the Commons Treasury committee about the OBR's fiscal risks report. Noon: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing. After 12.30pm: MPs start debates on two Tory opposition day motions. The first one calls for the two-child benefit cap to stay, and the second one calls on the government to commit to uprating tax thresholds in line with inflation and to rule out new taxes on savings, homes and pensions. Also today, the Department for Education is publishing new guidance on sex education. If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can't read all the messages BTL, but if you put 'Andrew' in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @ The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can't promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
Daily Mail
38 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Donald Trump is warned he is pushing Putin towards nuclear war with his decision to arm Ukraine and hit Russia with more sanctions
Donald Trump was today warned by Moscow that he is pushing Russia towards nuclear war with his new go-ahead for arms to Ukraine and the threat of punitive sanctions. State TV propagandist and war pundit Aleksandr Sladkov said: 'Trump is trying to scare us with missiles, but this is difficult to do. 'Trump should be scared. Everyone is trying to push us to turn Kyiv and Lviv into Hiroshima and Nagasaki.' The Ukrainian leadership - in calling for new missiles to strike Russia - 'is taking the most active part in this'. The new Trump deal green lights the supply of a possible $10 billion worth of defensive and offensive missiles and other arms, to be paid for by US allies in Europe along with Canada, as well as the threat of sledgehammer sanctions if Putin refuses to negotiate in 50 days. Sladkov declared: 'Imagine our country under attack by American cruise missiles, like Yugoslavia, Iraq, etc. I am sure that the Yars should go in response.' Yars are Russia's main land-based strategic nuclear weapons - each missile typically carries three or four nuclear warheads. Each has a yield estimated between 100 and 300 kilotons, making each warhead between seven and 20 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Frothing Putin TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov claimed the arming of Ukraine by NATO meant a full scale war. 'The question is about the survival of our country,' he fumed on Kremlin-funded state TV. 'We are already at war. It cannot be avoided. 'The [Western] task is to destroy our country. We are not fighting in Ukraine, we are fighting with NATO. Understand this already.' This came as it was claimed the US president had quizzed Volodymyr Zelensky on why he did not heap pressure on Vladimir Putin by attacking capital city Moscow, a disclosure likely to further infuriate Moscow. 'We can if you give us the weapons,' Zelensky replied, according to the Washington Post. It has emerged the US considered approving long range Tomahawk cruise missiles for Kyiv, but for now has not done so, but evidently has approved using American-supplied ATACMS missiles inside Russia to a fuller range of almost 200 miles. Ultranationalist politician Leonid Slutsky, leader of the hardline Liberal Democratic Party, said: 'As for the talk about preparations for resuming the process of missile deliveries to the Ukrainian junta: this will certainly be a step back, but will not fundamentally change the situation on the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. 'The goals of the [war] will be achieved in any case - either through negotiations or on the battlefield.' Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev mocked a 'theatrical' Trump, suggesting Putin won't care over the White House ultimatum. He posted on X: 'Trump issued a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin. The world shuddered, expecting the consequences. Belligerent Europe was disappointed. Russia didn't care.' Overnight, Putin for the second day running succession avoided mass drone and missile strikes on Ukraine. But attacks carried on in war zone regions where he is seeking to invade more territory. In Kharkiv, a 68-year-old woman was injured in a night attack on the region. Houses and four outbuildings burned down in new attacks on civilians. In Zaporizhzhia, two people were wounded in an attack on Huliaipole city. Kherson was also hit by Russian forces. Ukraine staged attacks on military facilities deep inside Russia with a new drone strike on Energiya enterprise at Yelets in Liuptsk region - which makes the chemical-based power sources for multiple Russian weapons including Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Residents reported explosions and footage indicated the plant had been hit in a barrage of a dozen drones. Voronezh was also hit with reports of 15 wounded including a baby aged one. Matthew Whitaker, permanent US Representative to NATO, insisted the Trump about turn on arms supplies to Ukraine will bring peace. 'What this says to Vladimir Putin is very loud and clear which is - we have given you a chance for peace. 'President Trump is a peacemaker, but if you want war, we will arm Ukraine - and Europe will pay for it. 'It's actually a great step in ultimately bringing this war to a conclusion, to an end. 'In the last 18 months Russia has gained about one per cent of Ukrainian land. 'They are making no success, they are losing thousands of soldiers every single day.'
