Trump talks Gaza, tariffs and golf in five-day visit to Scotland
Mr Trump had a brief meeting earlier today with the Scottish First Minister John Swinney describing him as a 'very special guy'.
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Reuters
8 minutes ago
- Reuters
Citi raises gold forecast to $3,500/oz over next 3 months on negative US outlook
Aug 4 (Reuters) - Citi raised its gold price forecast over next three months to $3,500 per ounce on Monday from $3,300, and the expected trading range to $3,300–$3,600 from $3,100–$3,500, on the belief that near-term U.S. growth and inflation outlook has deteriorated. "U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H'25, which alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs" the bank said. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan. The tariffs imposed last week on scores of countries are likely to stay in place rather than be cut as part of continuing negotiations, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CBS show "Face the Nation" aired on Sunday. Last week, the dollar weakened after nonfarm payrolls increasing by 73,000 jobs last month, after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, which revived hopes of a Fed rate cut in September, with markets now pricing in an 81% chance, per CME FedWatch tool, opens new tab Citi also highlights weaker U.S. labor data in second quarter of 2025, institutional credibility concerns have increased regarding the Federal Reserve and US statistics, and elevated geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during political and economic uncertainties, tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Citi estimates gross gold demand has risen over one-third since mid-2022, nearly doubling prices by second quarter of 2025. The strength in gold demand was driven by strong investment demand, moderate central bank buying and resilient jewellery demand despite higher prices, the bank added. Spot gold was trading at $3,356.88/oz at 0340 GMT on Monday.
Reuters
8 minutes ago
- Reuters
Morning Bid: Buy the dip, we can worry about jobs later
Aug 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a case of buy the dip so far on Monday as U.S. and European stock futures edge up, along with the dollar. The Nikkei suffered a delayed reaction to Friday's Wall Street rout and a jump in the yen, but the rest of Asia fared better. Early trade saw Fed fund futures price in 65 bps of interest rate cuts by December, but that's back to 60 bps now. That's still a world away from the 33 bps seen before Friday's weak U.S. payrolls report, and September is still 83% for an easing. In fact, the 25 bps drop in two-year yields on Friday was essentially the market doing a Fed rate cut for them, given how borrowing costs in the States are tied to yields not the funds rate. Ten-year yields also fell a steep 14 bps but met resistance around 4.20%, a level they have repeatedly struggled to break under since October last year. Longer term, downward revisions to payrolls have seriously challenged the U.S. claim to economic out-performance and the dollar's crown of exceptionalism. The latter was also tarnished by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an institution with an invaluable reputation for scrupulous honesty that won the trust of investors worldwide. Or, at least, it used to be. Now, Trump says he will chose a new head for the BLS in the next few days. Will it be an independent-minded statistician dedicated to providing credible data, or a Trump loyalist eager to please their master? U.S. assets enjoy a trust premium that will be really hard to maintain as Trump bends all levels of government to his will. Trump also just floated the idea of using some of the windfall from tariffs to pay "dividends" to a lucky group of Americans chosen by him - no doubt with special cheques bearing a "TRUMP" logo. So you slap taxes on everyone that buys imports, whether they have a choice or not, and then use part of the revenue to pay money to those you favour, in your name rather than the government that's actually doing the work. Talking of tariffs, a U.S. appeals court late last week heard arguments on the legality of Trump's "reciprocal" levies and sounded inclined to support the original ruling that the tariffs were illegal. Such a ruling would likely still go to the Supreme Court, which has tended to favour unbridled presidential power. Yet, should the tariffs be found illegal, not only would all the trade deals agreed or underway be null and void, but the Treasury would have to refund all the money collected. Wouldn't that be fun... Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.
Reuters
9 minutes ago
- Reuters
Gold eases on profit taking after rally on US jobs surprise
Aug 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors booked profits after a sharp rise in the previous session on weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that boosted expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Spot gold lost 0.1% to $3,360.62 per ounce, as of 0432 GMT. Bullion rose more than 2% on Friday. However, U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $3,412.80. "Gold has made a conservative start to the week following Friday's price jump. A combination of profit-taking and dollar stabilisation has caused gold to ease marginally to kick-off the week," KCM Trade chief market analyst, Tim Waterer, said. Last week, nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, after a downwardly revised gain of 14,000 in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. This revived hopes of a Fed rate cut in September, with markets now pricing in an 81% chance, per CME FedWatch tool, opens new tab. The tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump imposed last week on scores of countries are likely to stay in place rather than be cut as part of continuing negotiations, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CBS show "Face the Nation", aired on Sunday. "But with Trump on the tariff warpath once again, and the soft U.S. jobs report increasing the odds that we could see a September FOMC rate cut, any pullbacks in the precious metal could be of a shallow nature," Waterer said. Gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during political and economic uncertainties, tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Citi raised its gold price forecast over next three months to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300, and the expected trading range to $3,300–$3,600 from $3,100–$3,500, on the belief that near-term U.S. growth and inflation outlook has deteriorated. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $37.10 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.6% to $1,307.52 and palladium eased 0.6% to $1,201.44.
