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an hour ago
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Wall Street's Tom Lee Says This 'Most Hated' Rally Could Be A Fortune-Maker—And Bitcoin at $250K Isn't Out Of Reach
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. When Wall Street veteran Tom Lee speaks, investors listen. As head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Lee has built a reputation for bold predictions and contrarian calls that often prove prescient. In a recent CNBC interview, the market strategist delivered a compelling case for why current market skepticism could create generational wealth opportunities—and why his eye-popping Bitcoin price target might not be as crazy as it sounds. The Recovery Everyone Loves to Hate Lee describes the market's recent rebound as the 'most hated V-shape bounce in history,' pointing to a critical disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment. During what he calls 'April tariff Armageddon,' fear of recession drove massive liquidations, leaving most investors underexposed when markets staged their dramatic recovery. Don't Miss: Be part of the breakthrough that could replace plastic as we know it— — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. This positioning creates an unusual dynamic: strong fundamentals meeting widespread skepticism. 'Most investors are currently underexposed,' Lee notes, suggesting significant upside potential as sentiment eventually catches up to reality. Why the Market Is Cheaper Than You Think Challenging the narrative that stocks have become dangerously overvalued, Lee presents compelling valuation data. Despite enduring what he characterizes as 'six extinction-like events' over the past six years—including COVID-19, supply chain disruptions, inflation surges, aggressive Fed rate hikes, Trump tariffs, and geopolitical tensions—S&P 500 earnings have actually grown. More surprisingly, the equity-weighted S&P multiple has compressed from approximately 17.6 times in 2019 to 16 times currently. This suggests the market has become cheaper even as earnings demonstrated remarkable resilience through unprecedented challenges. Trending: Grow your IRA or 401(k) with Crypto – . Apple's AI Ace in the Hole While much attention focuses on the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants, Lee offers a contrarian take on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). He believes the iPhone maker has been 'quietly ready to pounce on AI' and will 'surprise people' with its approach. Drawing parallels to Apple's transformative but late entry into smartphones with the 2007 iPhone launch, Lee suggests that when Apple decides to 'play big in AI,' it will 'change the game.' He emphasizes Apple's competitive advantages in safety, privacy, and user experience optimization—particularly valuable if large language models become commoditized. The strategist also supports speculation around Apple's potential foldable phone launch this fall, noting that larger screens drive users toward 'computing and something much higher capability,' aligning with augmented reality applications in the AI era. The Stablecoin Revolution and Ethereum's Golden Opportunity Lee identifies stablecoins as the 'ChatGPT moment for crypto,' highlighting their growing adoption by businesses, consumers, and major financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE:C). This trend creates significant opportunities for Ethereum, which hosts the majority of stablecoins and generates over 30% of its network fees from this Ethereum approaching a $4 trillion market valuation, Lee sees substantial upside. While technical analysis suggests near-term targets around $5,000, he believes valuation metrics similar to Circle could justify prices between $10,000 and $20,000. The $250K Bitcoin Vision Perhaps Lee's boldest call remains his Bitcoin price target of $200,000 to $250,000, which he maintains 'still makes sense.' His reasoning is straightforward: this would value Bitcoin at just 25% of gold's market size. Looking further ahead, Lee reiterates his belief that Bitcoin 'should be worth over a million per bitcoin' and that this 'could happen in the next few years.' The Bottom Line Lee's message is clear: current market skepticism, combined with resilient fundamentals and emerging technological shifts, creates compelling investment opportunities. Whether through traditional equities trading at compressed multiples, Apple's potential AI breakthrough, or cryptocurrency's institutional adoption wave, patient investors willing to look past short-term noise may find themselves positioned for significant gains. As Lee emphasizes, his goal at Fundstrat remains helping clients 'find good ideas and make money'—and his track record suggests these contrarian insights deserve serious consideration. Read Next: A must-have for all crypto enthusiasts: . Image: Shutterstock This article Wall Street's Tom Lee Says This 'Most Hated' Rally Could Be A Fortune-Maker—And Bitcoin at $250K Isn't Out Of Reach originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
This could be the most consequential week for the economy in years
The state of President Donald Trump's economy is about to come into full view. A slew of crucial economic data is set for release this week, including the jobs report, inflation, consumer confidence and corporate earnings. We'll get the first glimpse at America's second-quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy. And, most crucially, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut rates or hold steady one more time. As if that weren't enough, Trump's trade polices also come due: Friday is the administration's self-imposed deadline for settling tariff rates for all 200+ US trading partners. Trump's top economic advisers will be negotiating a trade framework with China in Sweden. And an appeals court will hear arguments this week about whether the bulk of Trump's tariffs are even legal, to begin with. Altogether, the data could paint a picture of an economy that is resilient — but slowing under the weight of Trump's dizzying tariff changes, reductions in government workers and spending, and an aggressive deportation of foreign-born workers. Here's a look at what to expect this week and why the data matters: Corporate earnings Some of the biggest names in tech are set to release earnings this week, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple. That will set the tone for market sentiment. Tech stocks have fueled record market growth in recent months as investors focus on gearing up for AI expansion. So far, around 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this season have beaten estimates, according to FactSet. Overall, stocks have marched higher into record territory recently, supported by cautious optimism in trade deals and better-than-expected economic data. That has emboldened Trump to push harder on his trade deals, telling NBC News earlier this month that markets hit new highs because 'tariffs have been very well received.' Why it matters: Strong earnings could continue to boost the stock market, which is starting to look a bit expensive for some investors. That could also convince Trump that the market — which turned on him in April — has acquiesced to his plan for higher tariffs. Consumer confidence and sentiment Two separate reads on the way Americans are feeling about the economy are set to be released this week. Consumer confidence, as measured by Conference Board, sank to the lowest level since the pandemic when Trump slapped massive tariffs on major trading partners. Shoppers expressed concern about the negative impact on the economy and prices. But consumers are generally more optimistic now that trade deals are beginning to emerge. The consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan continues to show that shoppers are wary of inflation levels rising again, after the economy batted down historic price increases following the pandemic. Although sentiment has rallied back from near-record lows earlier this year, it remains depressed because of Trump's trade policy. Why it matters: Economists pay close attention to consumers' optimism, since their spending powers two-thirds of the economy — and when shoppers think prices are about to rise, they tend to pull back. The latest retail sales data shows that consumers are spending cautiously. Second-quarter GDP GDP is a key indicator of economic success and, arguably, a validation of Trump's policies. But this quarterly assessment has slumped in recent months, even shrinking in the first quarter of the year for the first time since 2022. Economists expect an improvement for the April-June quarter as imports rebalance after companies raced to front-load their purchases ahead of Trump's tariffs. They warn that, just as an inventory spike may have artificially hurt GDP in the first quarter, companies working through their warehoused goods in the second quarter may make the economy look better than it actually is. Why it matters: The US economy is large and resilient, and it has continued to support hundreds of thousands new jobs each month for years. But if Americans are getting cold feet, things could take a turn for the worse. Fed decision Trump has repeatedly — and publicly — berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering the bank's interest rate (their recent détente notwithstanding), but the central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hold rates steady Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting. In an unusual kink, two governors are expected to vote against the consensus of the board, which hasn't happened in three decades. With the job market still relatively strong, most Fed officials have said the economy can withstand higher rates for the time being. Meanwhile, they want to wait to see how Trump's policies of high tariffs and deportation of foreign workers impact inflation and the labor market. Why it matters: The bank is widely expected to start cutting its key overnight lending rate in September — a good sign for Americans hoping to borrow money, and especially for first-time homebuyers, who have been effectively locked out of the market with mortgage rates close to 7%. Inflation The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, has been creeping higher — moving further away from its 2% goal in recent months. That's just one factor behind the central bank's position on rate cuts. Why it matters: Shoppers have been pulling forward purchases, including back-to-school items, to mitigate expected higher prices, but the July data will likely still bear the fingerprints of Trump's tumultuous trade policy: Items like furniture and toys are starting to reflect elevated costs as pre-tariff inventory is depleted. Trade deadline Trump's pause on the hefty and unpopular tariffs he rolled out in April expires on August 1. In the intervening period, the White House has scrambled to make deals with a slew of partners, announcing preliminary arrangements with the UK, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan. And on Sunday, Trump announced a framework for an EU deal. As the final deadline approaches, Trump said Friday he would be sending out letters to roughly 200 countries this week unilaterally setting a range of tariff rates. 'It's basically going to say, you're going to pay 10%, you're going to pay 15%, you're going to pay maybe less, I don't know,' Trump told reporters before he left for a trip to Scotland. US markets are 'very, very fixated' on the levels that are set, and an effective tariff rate beyond 20% on major trading partners could trigger a downturn on Wall Street, one analyst told CNN. Why it matters: Trump's tariffs that are currently in effect have raised the effective US tariff rate — the average tax that US importers pay on foreign goods — from around 2% to 18%, the highest since 1934, economists at Yale's Budget Lab said in a recent report. That works out to $2,400 a year in added costs for the average American household. The US economy and markets have been able to withstand that so far. A considerably higher tariff rate could put that to the test. Trade negotiations Talks with China are ongoing, however. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet Monday and Tuesday with Chinese officials to iron out the details of the framework the two countries agreed upon at their London and Geneva meetings. Trump in April slapped a 145% tariff on imports from China, prompting Beijing to respond with a 125% tariff on imports from the United States. That effectively created a total embargo between the world's two largest economies before they agreed on a pause until August 12. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the US Court of Appeals will hear oral arguments about whether Trump can use his emergency powers to levy tariffs after a lower court ruled he had exceeded his authority in doing so. Why it matters: One of the Trump administration's goals is to shift China towards a more consumer-driven domestic economy, thereby reducing global oversupply of its manufactured goods. While it's unlikely that the United States will dramatically reshape Chinese President Xi Jinping's economic policy, small changes could open some of China's market to US manufacturers, while helping to increase American factory jobs. Jobs report Trump has promised a 'Made in America' revival, but the July jobs report is expected to show that average monthly employment gains have dropped to a level not seen since 2010 (excluding the pandemic-era losses). The labor force has shrunk in recent months, a potential indication of how anti-immigrant rhetoric and mass deportations are weighing on employment. In addition, the most recent report showed that the manufacturing sector lost jobs for the second-straight month — a murky development for one of Trump's benchmark economic priorities. Why it matters: America's labor market has been its strong suit for years, routinely defying expectations since the pandemic. But it's showing cracks. Americans who lose their job are now staying unemployed for longer as businesses stall on making decisions, including hiring, as the trade war continues to raise costs.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures climb as Trump-EU trade deal kicks off huge week in markets
US stock futures edged higher Sunday evening as investors braced for a packed week featuring earnings from Big Tech heavyweights, a Federal Reserve meeting, inflation data, and President Trump's Aug. 1 deadline to lock in key trade deals. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) were up about 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) also gained 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) rose 0.5%. The rally follows a strong week on Wall Street. All three major indexes posted gains Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high for a fifth straight session. Market sentiment got a boost Sunday night after the US and European Union reached a deal to reduce tariffs to 15% on EU goods, easing tensions with one of America's largest trading partners. Trump had previously been threatening imposing 30% tariffs from Friday. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Investor eyes are now turning to a jam-packed week on Wall Street. Heavyweight earnings highlight the most intense stretch of the season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies set to report. Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) lead off Wednesday, followed by Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) on Thursday. Read more: Full earnings coverage in our live blog Beyond earnings, the Fed takes center stage. The central bank kicks off a two-day meeting Tuesday, with a decision expected Wednesday afternoon. While rates are widely expected to remain in the 4.25%-4.50% range, traders will be listening closely for any signs that policymakers are warming to a possible rate cut in September. All this is occurring alongside legal battles to open up the Fed's meetings to investor eyes, as well as Trump's general pressure on the central bank and Chair Jerome Powell. On the data front, inflation and labor will be in the spotlight. Thursday's release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is forecast to show a modest uptick in both monthly and annual readings. Also on deck: a flurry of jobs data. Investors will get a read on labor market moves through Tuesday's JOLTS report, Wednesday's ADP private payrolls, and Friday's July employment report. Sign in to access your portfolio
