Bitcoin wavers amid Trump's tariff shock, but bulls eye long-term breakout
The world's most valuable cryptocurrency, which briefly touched $110,000 last week on upbeat US jobs data, pulled back to hover around $108,000 amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Market participants expect choppy trading in the short term, but analysts remain largely optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.
The tariff decision, which imposes duties of up to 40 per cent on imports from countries including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan, will take effect from August 1. Trump also left the door open for revisions, stating the deadline was 'not 100 per cent firm.' The sudden move added a fresh layer of uncertainty to global financial markets, impacting sentiment across both equities and digital assets.
'Cryptocurrencies thrive on clarity and risk appetite,' said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus. 'With global trade tensions resurfacing, investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach.' He expects Bitcoin to test lower levels around $104,000 in the near term before staging a potential rebound. 'A retracement may flush out bearish sentiment and create conditions for a sharp rally by late July,' Subburaj noted.
As of the latest data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $108,016, down 1.04 per cent over the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of $46.36 billion. Its market capitalisation stood at $2.14 trillion, having moved in a narrow range between $107,500 and $109,200.
Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of crypto investment platform Mudrex, remains bullish on the medium-term outlook. 'The aggregated open interest in Bitcoin futures has climbed by 7 per cent over the past 30 days, marking the first sustained uptick since May. If Bitcoin can close above $110,500, we could see a breakout toward $120,000,' Patel said. He identified $107,100 as the new support level.
Crypto markets were generally muted on Tuesday, with major altcoins showing marginal losses. Ethereum (ETH) declined 1.2 per cent to $2,544, while Solana (SOL) slipped 2.05 per cent. Cardano (ADA) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) were down 1.66 per cent and 6.28 per cent respectively. Binance Coin (BNB) dipped 0.29 per cent, and Ripple (XRP) was largely flat. Stablecoin Tether (USDT) held steady at $0.99, indicating a lack of immediate panic selling.
Analysts also point to macroeconomic developments as a factor underpinning demand for Bitcoin. Simon Peters, a crypto analyst at eToro, said, 'The passing of Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill'— expected to add $3.4 trillion to US federal deficits — could reinforce Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against currency debasement. Investors are watching for fiscal overspending risks, which tend to strengthen the case for deflationary assets.'
Peters added that the expiration of a 90-day tariff pause on July 9 may trigger further market movement depending on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations.
Looking further ahead, global investment bank Standard Chartered has released a bullish price forecast, projecting Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter—up 25 per cent from current levels. Geoff Kendrick, head of Digital Asset Research at the bank, said in a recent note, 'Institutional demand via ETFs and corporate treasury allocations has disrupted historical halving-related price patterns. Bitcoin is demonstrating resilience beyond previous market cycles.'
Traditionally, Bitcoin's price has experienced post-halving downturns around 18 months after the event. However, Kendrick argues that fresh capital inflows from institutional investors have rewritten the narrative, making a new all-time high more likely in 2025.
Investors are also eyeing a crucial legislative week beginning July 14, dubbed 'Crypto Week' on Capitol Hill. US lawmakers are expected to debate at least three major digital asset bills— the Clarity Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Genius Act. The proposed laws could significantly shape the future of the crypto regulatory landscape in the US and influence global sentiment.
Analysts said the broader crypto market has entered a phase of guarded optimism, shaped by evolving geopolitics, regulatory developments, and institutional participation. While short-term volatility remains a concern, the combination of macroeconomic shifts and legislative clarity may pave the way for a more robust and sustained crypto rally in the months ahead, they predicted.
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