Wall Street likes Trump's economy more than voters

Axios

4 days ago

The stock market rallied during President Trump's first six months in office, despite a volatility spike in April — but a new poll shows Main Street isn't feeling the same optimism.
Why it matters: While investors are pricing in a post-tariff rebound, the general public is still concerned about economic issues like inflation — a reminder that the stock market is not the economy.
By the numbers: Despite a volatile April off the back of tariff announcements, the S&P 500 is up 7% year to date — outpacing the historical average.
Meanwhile, 70% of survey respondents say the administration is not focusing enough on lowering prices, according to a CBS News / YouGov poll released Sunday.
The administration is focusing too much on tariff policy, according to 61% of those surveyed, and 60% said they oppose tariffs entirely.
What they're saying: " The broader economy is slowing" and "capital markets are comfortable with the idea of a slowdown," Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Asset Management, told Axios.
Markets are forecasting a "bounce back" once tariff discussions are in the rearview mirror, meaning investors aren't too concerned about any near-term weakness, according to Freedman.
Between the lines: Looked at in this way, it's not that investors necessarily disagree with voters about the state of the economy.
Instead, traders are just pricing in the post-tariff rebound, while constituents are worried about their financial lives before that rebound kicks in.
Yes, but: While voters may not feel great about the economy, their spending patterns indicate otherwise.
Retail sales jumped more than expected last month.
Big banks largely reported increased card spending over the quarter.
GDP growth, which is driven mainly by consumer spending, is expected to come in above 2% for the quarter
Be smart: "There's a lot of divergence within consumers," said Freedman, who is monitoring middle-income consumer behavior to get a better sense of the economic path forward.
High stock prices are fueling spending for higher income consumers, according to Freedman, in a phenomenon known as the wealth effect.
If increased spending is coming from largely higher-income folks, that could be clouding the full economic picture.
The bottom line: If stocks are up, that does not necessarily mean investors think the economy is in great shape.