RBA Urged to Defy Expectations And Keep Rates on Hold
Today's must-reads:
• Ex-RBA board member urges rate pause
• Our latest podcast on banks
• Rio Tinto's aluminum plans
Former Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin thinks the central bank should keep interest rates unchanged next week. He spoke with my colleague Swati Pandey, citing fiscal stimulus and global uncertainty. Most economists and traders expect the RBA to cut its key rate to a two-year low of 3.85% on Tuesday.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Aussie small business owner faces ‘devastating' $80,000 hit after Meta suspends accounts
An Australian small business owner says her revenue has more than halved after her social media accounts were 'suddenly' suspended by Meta at a vulnerable time in her life. The social media giant has been accused of mistakenly banning Facebook and Instagram users' accounts across the world. Kellie Johnson is the founder of Kosi, a wearable heat pack business that was born out of her own experience living with endometriosis. The Central Coast mum told Yahoo Finance she received a notification out of the blue that her Instagram account had been suspended on July 10. She received an email from Meta advising her Instagram account had been suspended because it didn't follow 'Community Standards on child sexual exploitation, abuse and nudity'. Johnson said she never posted anything of this nature on her account, with Kosi's account primarily showing images of her heat pad product and adult women wearing it. RELATED Aussie cafe owner's 'pressure' of impending $124,000 superannuation change Common neighbour problem plaguing Aussie houses Major inflation change following RBA's shock interest rate decision She believes her accounts were mistakenly flagged by an AI moderator; however, Meta did not provide any explanation as to the specific post that led to her suspension. Johnson said she was using her personal Instagram account at the time and got a notification that it had also been suspended, as it is a linked account. Her linked podcast account, which only had three posts, was also suspended along with her Facebook accounts. 'I tried to log into the business one that it had flagged, but I got the same message saying that it had breached the community guidelines,' she said. Johnson said the impact on her small business was 'devastating', with her sales projected to more than halve month on month. In June, her total sales were more than $133,000. In July, that has dropped significantly, with Johnson estimating they would end the month on $50,000 given the lack of organic reach. That works out to a difference of more than $80, make matters worse, the ban on her personal and business accounts was just two days after Johnson had a D&C (dilation and curettage) for her seventh miscarriage. This means she was suddenly cut off from her support network and loved ones at a critical time. 'I had connected with a bunch of people who were in the same boat as me, and that was providing me so much comfort because I've had these people who understood what I was going through, and we were talking about it in real time,' she said. 'Then that obviously got cut off right away, right after my surgery, which was a really difficult time. I definitely found that really, really hard — more from a mental health point of view, just because the timing was so bad for it to happen.' Johnson said she immediately appealed the suspensions. Her podcast account failed the appeal, which she believes was assessed by AI, and was "permanently disabled' with no explanation as to why it failed. She received no response on her other appeals and said the process to get support was very difficult. She even paid for Meta verification to get in contact with a real person, but went "around in circles for six hours". She has since lodged an appeal to the Small Business Ombudsman. Meta responds to questions over why accounts have been banned Meta did not reply to specific questions about Johnson's case, but her accounts were restored over the weekend, more than a week after the initial ban. "We take action on accounts that violate our policies, and people can appeal if they think we've made a mistake,' a Meta spokesperson told Yahoo Finance. Meta uses a combination of people and technology to find accounts that breach its rules. It is understood Meta has not seen evidence of a significant increase in incorrect enforcement of its rules. Instagram's website notes that AI is "central" to its content review process and it can "detect and remove content that goes against our Community Standards before anyone reports it". Johnson is not the only Australian business owner who says they've mistakenly had their accounts suspended for breaching community standards. Rochelle Marinato, the owner of a pilates equipment supplier, said her accounts had been suspended after she posted a video of three dogs looking out a window. She claimed her revenue dropped 75 per cent, resulting in about a $50,000 loss. More than 30,000 people have also signed a petition accusing Meta of wrongfully disabling accounts through its AI moderation system with no human customer support or clear appeal process. Calls for Meta to provide more transparency Johnson said the effects of the social media bans were "debilitating" and highlighted how little control business owners had over their own platforms, which they relied on to pay the bills. 'A lot of people would be in the same boat as me, where they are relying on that money to live and then the platform's taking no responsibility or even explaining to you why you're dealing with that,' she said. 'I think that they probably need to withdraw the AI checker until they fix the issue because the impact on people's mental health and on their businesses is too great.'Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
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NAB responds to wild conspiracy theory about customer accounts being frozen
Australians have been up in arms about a policy from one of the Big Four banks that doesn't even exist. Multiple posts have appeared on social media claiming NAB customers could be frozen out of their accounts if they made "mean" comments online. The fake claim even alleged that you could have your account closed down in certain circumstances. Aussies were furious and said it was a gross overreach of power. However, a bank spokesperson told Yahoo Finance these incorrect allegations are linked to a policy that was brought in two years ago. RELATED NAB worker saves grandmother from $50K heartbreak after noticing tiny detail Common neighbour problem plaguing Aussie houses Major inflation change following RBA's shock interest rate decision Where did the NAB conspiracy come from? The incorrect claims have been floating around since 2023, but they have recently been doing the rounds again on social media pages like Facebook and Threads. It all started when NAB updated its terms and conditions to protect customers from financial abuse. The new policy would mean you could have your account frozen or closed if you engaged in "unacceptable conduct". When you send money to someone, even if it's just 1 cent, you can include a message in the description or reference section. Perpetrators of financial abuse had been using this to send offensive or harmful messages to certain people and NAB's change was aimed at stamping out this behaviour. 'We're blocking around 15,000 abusive messages each month sent through payment channels and today's move further puts financial abusers on notice that we will do everything we can to protect innocent people,' NAB's head of customer vulnerability, Michael Chambers, said two years ago when the policy update was brought in. Many other banks have similar policies to protect people from financial furious over fake claims While the policy change had good intentions, people misconstrued how it could affect their accounts. Many started posting on social media that you could have your money frozen purely for just saying something nasty anywhere on the internet. "If the NAB are going to scrutinise your social media accounts it means they have too much time on their hands. I would close my account it they did that," wrote one person. "So NAB is now in charge or Facebook ??? If my bank does anything like that I'd just close my account," added another. There was even an article online promoting the conspiracy. While the theory has roots as far back as 2023, people have resurrected it in recent weeks for an unknown reason. These new posts have been liked hundreds of times and shared widely across the internet. What does NAB have to say about the misinformation? When approached by Yahoo Finance, NAB declined to elaborate further about the conspiracy. But it's worth mentioning that the changes made in 2023 only applied to activity on NAB's banking channels like internet banking and the mobile app. NAB doesn't have the power to close your account based on things you might say on the internet. 'Concerns about financial abuse remains one of the top reasons customers get in touch with our customer support team, NAB Assist,' Chambers said two years ago. 'If a NAB account holder is now found to be perpetrating financial abuse, we will be able to suspend or terminate their services. 'We're taking a firm stand against financial abuse, and we aren't resting there. We're working with other banks to help develop a consistent approach across the industry.'Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Pausing for breath: Five questions for the ECB
By Yoruk Bahceli and Stefano Rebaudo LONDON (Reuters) -The European Central Bank is set to pause for breath on Thursday after eight consecutive interest rate cuts, with the prospect of steeper-than-expected U.S. tariffs looming. The threat tariffs pose to the euro zone is big but there's still little certainty about them, so the question is what happens next. "All the focus goes to September," said Societe Generale senior European economist Anatoli Annenkov. Here are five key questions for markets: 1/ What will the ECB do on Thursday? Hold its main rate at 2%. Data shows little to change the outlook since policymakers met in June, and there's no clarity on what final U.S. tariffs will look like. "The ECB will prefer to wait and see if anything actually pushes them out of the equilibrium they find themselves in," said Salomon Fiedler, economist at Berenberg. 2/ How will the ECB react to the latest tariff threats? Policymakers won't want to look like they're reacting to a threat. New forecasts are not due this week but the ECB will have to reassess its scenarios, sources have told Reuters, as the 30% tariff level U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened is steeper than the 20% the ECB anticipated in its most negative scenario outlined in June. "There is considerable uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation in Europe," said Jefferies chief Europe economist Mohit Kumar. "I expect a wait-and-watch tone from (ECB chief Christine) Lagarde." 3/ What happens after July? It's anyone's guess what level of U.S. tariffs materialise, so traders have held onto expectations for one more rate cut. Money markets price the move roughly as a coin toss between September and December. Jefferies' Kumar reckons an average 10-15% tariff rate wouldn't require the ECB to cut more than once, but a 30% rate would reduce euro zone growth by around 0.5% next year and require an additional cut. But AXA chief economist Gilles Moec said markets were too optimistic on trade and underestimating prospects for more ECB rate cuts. "The baseline is that we actually end up with fairly chunky tariffs, probably not 30%, but still chunky tariffs and we're going to face more deflationary pressure from China," said Moec, expecting two cuts this year. 4/ Should the ECB worry about disinflation? This is not a matter of if, but how much. Policymakers are already worried and cut rates in June to ensure inflation, which they see falling to 1.4% early next year, doesn't stay below the 2% target in the medium term. While the ECB expects it to rebound, that's not a pretty sight with the memory of below-target inflation still recent in policymakers' minds. Tariffs add to the risks. The ECB already thought a 20% tariff with EU retaliation would keep inflation below 2% in 2027 rather than reaching target as the bank currently expects. The prospect of China dumping discounted products on the EU could add to disinflation. But if EU countertariffs include services, the impact becomes more uncertain, Societe Generale's Annenkov said. And Germany's massive fiscal stimulus is an upside risk to inflation. Policymakers are split. Italy's Fabio Panetta, a dove, has said the ECB should continue loosening policy if trade tensions strengthen disinflation. For hawk Isabel Schnabel, the bar for another cut is "very high". 5/ What about further euro strength? Policymakers are worried as a strong euro hurts growth and inflation. Vice President Luis de Guindos has identified $1.20 as pain point. The euro surged nearly 17% from February to early July, hitting its highest since 2021 around $1.18. It has since pulled back slightly, a relief as economists say it's the speed of the appreciation that's really worrying. Yet analysts reckon it will reach $1.20 in a year, much higher than the $1.13 the ECB assumed for the next two years in June. The euro is one reason why BNP Paribas expects a September rate cut, its head of developed markets Paul Hollingsworth said. Morgan Stanley sees a rally to $1.25 by 2027 and expects this would lower inflation by 0.3 percentage points to 1.7%, preventing it from rising to target. "We're almost paying too much attention to the tariffs themselves than on FX," said AXA's Moec.
