Goldman Warns Dollar Can Quickly Trade Like Risky Currency Again
Analysts Karen Reichgott Fishman and Lexi Kanter list elevated policy uncertainty related to trade tariffs and Federal Reserve independence, fiscal fears and diversification away from US assets as potential triggers.
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40 minutes ago
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Which European economy stands to suffer the most from US tariffs?
Germany and Ireland are standing out as the two most exposed EU economies threatened by higher US tariffs, as Brussels works towards a trade deal with Washington, amid reports that pharmaceutical tariffs could be as high as 200%. When US President Donald Trump imposed a new 25% tariff on auto imports and car parts in April, Germany was identified as the EU country with the most to lose. Brussels-based think tank Bruegel's estimation at the time was that tariffs could cost 0.4% of the country's GDP in the long term. While awaiting a new EU-US trade deal, other details emerge that could put Ireland, Denmark, and Belgium, as well as other countries, in the crosshairs should Washington target the pharmaceutical sector next. The overall impact on the European economy will depend on the actual tariff rate the US settles on and the EU's response, but the blow will not be spread evenly. According to Bruegel, the EU economy is facing significant but manageable macroeconomic consequences. They estimated in a report in April that, regarding the possible scenarios, the damage could be approximately 0.3% of the EU's GDP, depending on the outcome of the negotiations. This compares to the 1.1% real GDP growth expected in the bloc in 2025, by the European Commission's Spring Forecast. Trade with the US is significant. In 2024, the United States was the largest partner for EU exports of goods, making up 20.6% of all EU goods exports outside the bloc. Pharmaceuticals account for 15% of the EU's goods exports to the US. They are followed by the auto sector. Until there is more clarification on potential US tariffs on the pharma sector's products, 'the auto sector seems to be the most vulnerable to US tariffs as there doesn't seem to be any major exemptions planned,' said Savary. The industry has been slapped with a 25% tariff in April. 'Tariffs alone could shave around 8% off total EU trade volumes over the next five years,' said Rory Fennessy, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics, in a recent report. Countries with the highest value in goods exports to the US, facing the biggest threat to their economies, include Germany, Ireland, Italy, France and the Netherlands. The German economy relies heavily on exports, boosted by the country's motor vehicle sector. Nearly one-quarter (22.7%) of the total German exports are heading to the US. 'Germany stands out as the major European economy likely to be hit hardest by US tariffs, and we expect GDP growth to slump in the second and third quarters," Andrew Hunter, Associate Director and Senior Economist at Moody's Ratings, said to Euronews Business. Hunter also added that smaller economies, including Austria and others in central and eastern Europe, 'which are heavily integrated into Germany's industrial supply chains, will also be hit hard'. According to Bruegel, after 2025, the long-term negative impact of the tariffs could be around 0.4% of the GDP in Germany, once 'the effect has fully built up and initial short-term effects dissipated,' said Niclas Frederic Poitiers, Research Fellow at Bruegel. 'For France, the average effect would be around 0.25% of GDP.' Related Lengthy trade wars could cut global investment by one-tenth, warn economists Trump the unifier? How Europe could benefit from Trump's policies Uncertainty could lead to lost investments and jobs across the entire 27-member bloc. Hunter said that, 'even for those countries where direct exposure to US exports is relatively limited, such as France or Spain, growth is still likely to be weighed down by global weakness and uncertainty. Regarding long-term impacts, Ireland stands out as one of the most affected countries, as more than half of its goods exports (53.7%) are directed towards the US market. A lot depends on whether the pharmaceutical sector will be hit with tariffs. If so, 'Ireland will be the EU economy most at risk from these tariffs,' said Mathieu Savary, chief strategist for our European Investment Strategy at BCA Research. The research-based pharmaceutical industry is a key asset of the European economy. It is one of Europe's top-performing high-technology sectors. It contributed €311 billion in gross value added (GVA) and 2.3 million jobs directly and indirectly to the European Union's economy in 2022, according to a recent study by PWC. And the US market is crucial to the European pharma sector. According to the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, in 2021, North America accounted for 49.1% of world pharmaceutical sales compared with 23.4% for Europe. And more than one-third of EU pharma exports are going to the US. If the pharma sector is hit by a 25% tariff, as it is expected by Moody's in the coming months, 'most exposed would be a number of smaller European economies like Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia and Ireland, which are generally where we think the risks of recession in Europe are highest,' Hunter said. BCA Research's chief strategist added that in this case, 'Ireland is particularly exposed to this risk,' citing that exports to the US represent 18% of Ireland's GDP, and pharma exports represent nearly 55% of Irish exports. According to BCA, the impact 'could curtail 4% to 5% to growth over time'. Bruegel estimated that Ireland's cumulative real GDP loss could be 3% by 2028. The think tank also singled out the country as the most vulnerable regarding the impact of the US tariffs on employment. Regarding how vulnerable a country is to job losses in light of US tariffs, Bruegel said that Italy was the second most-exposed country, with a high exposure in transport equipment and a high level of exposed employment in fashion and car manufacturing. Italy would also have high exposure in pharmaceuticals. Trump said on Tuesday that pharmaceutical products imported to the US are facing a 200% tariff, without disclosing any further details. According to BCA's Savary, it is not likely, because 'that would massively increase the cost of healthcare for US consumers, which is already a major issue for voters.' He sees it as a 'strong message to foreign pharma companies to adjust their pricing down and invest into producing their drugs in the US.' Savary expects 'that FDIs into the US and drug prices reduction announcements will be the end result of these talks and threats'. 'The pressure is now on for drug companies to expand US production facilities so they are effectively on the doorstep of American customers,' said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.
Yahoo
43 minutes ago
- Yahoo
DOGE sprouts in red states, as governors embrace the cost-cutter brand and make it their own
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — The brash and chaotic first days of President Donald Trump 's Department of Government Efficiency, once led by the world's richest man Elon Musk, spawned state-level DOGE mimicry as Republican governors and lawmakers aim to show they are in step with their party's leader. Governors have always made political hay out of slashing waste or taming bureaucracy, but DOGE has, in some ways, raised the stakes for them to show that they are zealously committed to cutting costs. Many drive home the point that they have always been focused on cutting government, even if they're not conducting mass layoffs. 'I like to say we were doing DOGE before DOGE was a thing,' Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds said in announcing her own task force in January. Critics agree that some of these initiatives are nothing new and suggest they are wasteful, essentially duplicating built-in processes that are normally the domain of legislative committees or independent state auditors. At the same time, some governors are using their DOGE vehicles to take aim at GOP targets of the moment, such as welfare programs or diversity, equity and inclusion programs. And some governors who might be eyeing a White House run in 2028 are rebranding their cost-cutting initiatives as DOGE, perhaps eager to claim the mantle of the most DOGE of them all. No chainsaws in the states At least 26 states have initiated DOGE-style efforts of varying kinds, according to the Economic Policy Institute based in Washington, D.C. Most DOGE efforts were carried out through a governor's order — including by governors in Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire and Oklahoma — or by lawmakers introducing legislation or creating a legislative committee. The state initiatives have a markedly different character than Trump's slash-and-burn approach, symbolized by Musk's chainsaw-brandishing appearance at a Conservative Political Action Committee appearance in February. Governors are tending to entrust their DOGE bureaus to loyalists, rather than independent auditors, and are often employing what could be yearslong processes to consolidate procurement, modernize information technology systems, introduce AI tools, repeal regulations or reduce car fleets, office leases or worker headcounts through attrition. Steve Slivinski, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute who researches state government regulatory structures, said that a lot of what he has seen from state-level DOGE initiatives are the 'same stuff you do on a pretty regular basis anyway' in state governments. States typically have routine auditing procedures and the ways states have of saving money are 'relatively unsexy," Slivinski said. And while the state-level DOGE vehicles might be useful over time in finding marginal improvements, "branding it DOGE is more of a press op rather than anything new or substantially different than what they usually do,' Slivinski said. Analysts at the pro-labor Economic Policy Institute say that governors and lawmakers, primarily in the South and Midwest, are using DOGE to breathe new life into long-term agendas to consolidate power away from state agencies and civil servants, dismantle public services and benefit insiders and privatization advocates. 'It's not actually about cutting costs because of some fiscal responsibility,' EPI analyst Nina Mast said. Governors promoting spending cuts Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry rebranded his 'Fiscal Responsibility Program' as Louisiana DOGE, and promoted it as the first to team up with the federal government to scrub illegitimate enrollees from welfare programs. It has already netted $70 million in savings in the Medicaid program in an 'unprecedented' coordination, Landry said in June. In Oklahoma, Gov. Kevin Stitt — who says in a blurb on the Oklahoma DOGE website that 'I've been DOGE-ing in Oklahoma since before it was cool" — made a DOGE splash with the first report by his Division of Government Efficiency by declaring that the state would refuse some $157 million in federal public health grants. The biggest chunk of that was $132 million intended to support epidemiology and laboratory capacity to control infectious disease outbreaks. The Stitt administration said that funding — about one-third of the total over an eight-year period — exceeded the amount needed. The left-leaning Oklahoma Policy Institute questioned the wisdom of that, pointing to rising numbers of measles and whooping cough cases and the rocky transition under Stitt of the state's public health lab from Oklahoma City to Stillwater. Oklahoma Democrats issued rebukes, citing Oklahoma's lousy public health rankings. 'This isn't leadership,' state Sen. Carri Hicks said. 'It's negligence." Stitt's Oklahoma DOGE has otherwise recommended changes in federal law to save money, opened up the suggestion box to state employees and members of the general public and posted a spreadsheet online with cost savings initiatives in his administration. Those include things as mundane as agencies going paperless, refinancing bonds, buying automated lawn mowers for the Capitol grounds or eliminating a fax machine line in the State Board of Licensure for Professional Engineers and Surveyors. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order in February creating a task force of DOGE teams in each state agency. In the order, DeSantis recited 10 points on what he described as his and Florida's 'history of prudent fiscal management' even before DOGE. Among other things, DeSantis vowed to scrutinize spending by state universities and municipal and county governments — including on DEI initiatives — at a time when DeSantis is pushing to abolish the property taxes that predominantly fund local governments. His administration has since issued letters to universities and governments requesting reams of information and received a blessing from lawmakers, who passed legislation authorizing the inquiry and imposing fines for entities that don't respond. After the June 30 signing ceremony, DeSantis declared on social media: 'We now have full authority to DOGE local governments.' In Arkansas, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders launched her cost-cutting Arkansas Forward last year, before DOGE, and later said the state had done the 'same thing' as DOGE. Her administration spent much of 2024 compiling a 97-page report that listed hundreds of ways to possibly save $300 million inside a $6.5 billion budget. Achieving that savings — largely by standardizing information technology and purchasing — would sometimes require up-front spending and take years to realize savings. ___ Follow Marc Levy on X at: Marc Levy, The Associated Press Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Student Loan Update: Here's What SAVE Borrowers Should Do by August 1
Federal student loans for those who are enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education plan have been in an interest-free forbearance for a year while the income-driven repayment plan was challenged in court. Although SAVE has been officially blocked in the courts, borrowers' loans are still in limbo. Now, borrowers are being encouraged to choose a new payment plan or face interest charges. The Department of Education announced on July 9 that student loans for borrowers in the SAVE plan would start accruing interest on August 1. Their loans, however, will remain in a general forbearance. To avoid interest charges, the Department of Education is encouraging borrowers to switch to another payment plan. "The Department urges all borrowers in the SAVE Plan to quickly transition to a legally compliant repayment plan -- such as the Income-Based Repayment Plan," Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said in a statement. You're not required to switch payment plans at this time, however. What you should do depends on your forgiveness options and financial situation. "It's crucial for borrowers to act based on their own personal situation," said Elaine Rubin, a student loan policy expert and director of corporate communications at Edvisors. "A borrower who chooses to stay in the forbearance or who is waiting for their payment plan application to be processed will have their loan remain in good standing." SAVE borrowers have already been through unprecedented policy changes that have left many without a student loan payment for over five years. If you're a borrower enrolled in SAVE and you're not sure what to do next, here's what experts suggest. If you're working toward Public Service Loan Forgiveness and are enrolled in SAVE, you can either stay in forbearance or switch to another repayment plan. "For borrowers pursuing PSLF this won't mean very much," said Betsy Mayotte, president and founder of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors. "They can still either ride out the forbearance and plan on using what's called buy-back to get the months to count for PSLF purposes or switch plans now to another qualifying plan." If you decide to stay in forbearance, you'll be able to claim the months your loans were on hold using a process called PSLF buy-back. This allows you to pay for the months when your loans were in an administrative forbearance, to help you reach 120 on-time payments to receive forgiveness. If you decide to move your loans to another repayment plan, your payments will restart after your application is processed. Application processing is experiencing delays, and experts say not to expect your first payment under the new plan for a month or two, at the soonest. Although your payment may be higher on another income-driven repayment like IBR, this monthly amount would be the same amount you'd be charged when you went to "buy back" those months. Either way, you'll pay roughly the same amount. Although you're not required to switch repayment plans by August, you should review your options to see what the best fit is for your financial situation. "For those pursuing income-driven plan forgiveness they should strongly consider switching to another income-driven plan," said Mayotte. She noted that there's no buy-back option for IDR forgiveness, and the months that your loans are sitting in forgiveness won't count toward your total number of payments. Waiting would drag out your forgiveness timeline. You can look at your other income-driven repayment plan options using the Federal Student Aid loan simulator. When you're ready to switch to a new plan, you can apply to change your IDR on the FSA website. You can also continue to stay in SAVE until the forbearance period ends and you're placed on another repayment plan. You can pay the monthly interest that accrues, but those payments won't count towards forgiveness, Mayonette said. If you don't qualify for student loan forgiveness options, you can switch to another IDR or continue to wait out the forbearance. Either way, you should count on making payments again soon -- whether that's a new monthly payment or paying off the interest that accrues each month during the forbearance period. Since there are a few weeks left before interest charges start again, Mayonette suggests making larger lump sum payments while your interest is frozen, if you can. Many borrowers should brace for higher monthly payments after moving to a new repayment plan. Although income-driven repayment plans are generally more affordable than the standard repayment plan, SAVE was the most affordable student loan repayment plan to date. Many low-income borrowers had $0 or near $0 payments each month. CNET estimated that a single borrower earning $60,000 a year with $30,000 in student loan debt would have paid approximately $217 on SAVE. Switching to another income-driven repayment plan like IBR could increase their monthly payment by nearly $100. You can use the Federal Student Aid Loan Simulator to estimate what your new monthly payment will look like. If you switch to IBR or another repayment plan, that doesn't mean your first monthly payment will hit in August. "The US Department of Education still has a backlog in processing the forms to request a change of repayment plan, so they might not have to make payments for a few months until their request to switch repayment plans is processed," said Mark Kantrowitz, a financial aid and student loan expert. Still, it's smart to prepare for repayment right away, just in case. Many borrowers will see higher payments on another payment plan, even an income-driven repayment plan like IBR. If you need more time to prepare for repayment, you can continue to ride out the forbearance period. "There are no prepayment penalties on federal and private student loans, so nothing stops you from making interest-only payments," said Kantrowitz. "You can manually calculate the interest on your loans and make a prepayment in that amount each month." While the forbearance period won't last forever, it is currently expected to last until mid-2026. However, an upcoming court case could change that and end forbearance sooner. If you're facing financial distress, you might consider economic hardship deferment, unemployment deferment or general forbearance, said Kantrowitz. But he warned that interest may continue to accrue, which could dig you into a deeper hole. You can reach out to your servicer or review financial hardship options on the FSA website. Sign in to access your portfolio
