Carney's Liberals in lead after Trudeau's disaster as Canada voters get ready, Ipsos reveals
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As the clock ticks down to one of the most hotly-contested elections in Canada's history, a surprising Liberal resurgence is reshaping the political map and the future of the nation. New data from Ipsos suggests Mark Carney 's Liberal Party is holding a four percentage point lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives on the eve of Monday's general election.Just a few months ago, the Liberal Party appeared to be in freefall, with support dropping to historic lows under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau . Now, under the leadership of Mark Carney, the Liberals have reclaimed a lead in the polls.The latest Ipsos poll released on Sunday shows the Liberals leading with 42 percent support nationally, followed by the Conservatives at 38 percent, while Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats lag with just nine percent.The poll also indicates that, with only a day remaining before the election, most Canadian voters have already decided on their choices.According to a statement from Ipsos, just five percent of Canadians are still undecided, and among those who have made their decision, 71 percent say they are "absolutely certain" about their vote.As the majority of the population has made up their minds, the focus now shifts to voter turnout and the level of motivation among supporters.Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, anticipates strong voter turnout. He estimates that about 70 percent of eligible Canadians will go to the polls. He adds that those who remain "truly undecided" are unlikely to vote.However, Bricker pointed out that many voters who are leaning in one direction could finalize their decision only at the last moment."Our polling shows that as many as 10 percent of voters make their final choice while walking into the voting booth," he said in an interview. "So there's still a lot at stake here, and with just a four-point lead, it's a margin that can definitely be overcome."But for now, Ipsos' latest survey shows Liberals are leading in nearly every region of Canada, except Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, which is a worrying sign for the Conservatives.Liberals hold an eight-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and enjoy a double-digit advantage over all rivals in Quebec.In Quebec, the Liberals are leading with 40 percent support, well ahead of the Conservatives, which is at 25, while the New Democrats trail far behind with just six percent.Voters are already speaking up, and their concerns suggest a lot about what's at stake, even though the national picture depicts a close election."I don't like Poilievre's style, but the Liberals have lost my trust on many issues. The Conservatives are my only option now," said Jason, a 47-year-old oil rig worker in Calgary. "But, if the Liberals manage to hold onto their lead in Ontario and Quebec, it's going to be a tough race.""I feel like this election will define what kind of country we want to be — one that stands up to global pressures or one that bends under them," said Maria, a 41-year-old small business owner in Toronto. "I'm leaning Liberal because Carney feels like a steady hand, especially in times like these."In British Columbia, which was long considered a tight three-way contest throughout the campaign, the Liberals are now leading with 42 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 39 percent, and the NDP at 13 percent.The Green Party holds just three percent support in B.C., putting party co-leader Elizabeth May's seat in Saanich Gulf Islands at serious risk.Support for the two parties also seems to be divided along generational lines as more older Canadians seem to be defecting to Carney's Liberals than to the Conservative Party, which typically performs better among Canadians 55 and older, which is nearly 48 percent.In contrast, the Conservatives hold a lead over the Liberals, with 43 percent support among voters aged 35 to 54 compared to 38 percent for the Liberals.The poll also found that male voters' support for the Conservatives is diminishing, with 42 percent now supporting the Conservative Party and 40 percent supporting the Liberals. The Liberals hold a stronger lead, with 44 percent support versus 35 percent for the Conservatives among the female voters.As Canadians cast their ballots in a few hours, the elections will be a defining moment for the nation's identity and for deciding Canada's stance in the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
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