Sunni political alliances shift as Iraq prepares for November elections

Shafaq News

01-05-2025

Shafaq News/ Iraq's Sunni political landscape is undergoing a renewed phase of realignment and strategic positioning ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11.
With internal competition, fading alliances, and the re-emergence of veteran figures, the Sunni front is mobilizing to secure its place in Baghdad and regain ground lost since the upheaval of 2014.
Shafaq News has learned that four main forces are set to dominate the race in Sunni-majority provinces: Taqaddum (Progress) led by former Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, Al-Siyada (Sovereignty) under Khamis al-Khanjar, Azm (Determination) headed by Muthanna al-Samarrai, and the newly established New Baghdad Alliance, a coalition formed around Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani and several prominent Sunni figures.
While some movements are already engaging in campaign activity, others appear hesitant, uncertain whether the political calendar will hold in the face of Iraq's broader institutional volatility.
Legacy of Fragmentation
Sunni representation in Iraq's post-2003 political system has been shaped by successive cycles of marginalization, reconfiguration, and resurgence. After the ISIS territorial takeover in 2014 devastated Sunni heartlands, Sunni factions saw their influence diminish.
In the 2018 parliamentary elections, Sunni MPs secured just 73 of 329 seats—a steep decline from the 90 seats held in the prior cycle. That number rebounded in 2021 to approximately 94, but the gains were short-lived.
Internal discord has continued to fragment Sunni representation. In January 2022, two major camps—al-Halbousi's Taqaddum and al-Khanjar's Azm—joined forces under the Al-Siyada Alliance, commanding a combined bloc of 71 seats. But unity proved fleeting. Al-Halbousi eventually withdrew, citing differences in strategy and leadership, effectively dissolving the coalition's momentum.
In January 2025, a new attempt at consolidation emerged with the formation of the Sunni Leadership Alliance, announced in Baghdad. However, the alliance was notably launched without al-Halbousi's participation, a signal of enduring rivalry within the Sunni sphere. Despite its high-profile launch, the grouping has yet to translate its formation into a coherent electoral strategy or policy action.
Sources close to recent negotiations confirmed that in March, Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani hosted a private meeting among leading Sunni figures, including al-Halbousi. The participants reportedly agreed on the need to maintain communal cohesion and refrain from escalating personal rivalries, which many see as a key obstacle to unified Sunni leverage in national politics.
Major Blocs And Early Mobilization
While formal coalition-building remains limited, campaign activity has already begun in several key provinces. Taqaddum and Azm have taken the lead, investing in candidate selection, media outreach, and constituency visits.
Political operatives linked to Taqaddum are supporting several provincial lists, including the Iraq Hawks Movement led by Yazan Mishaan in Saladin, Minister of Planning Mohammed Tamim in Kirkuk, and Industry Minister Khalid Battal in Al-Anbar. Influential tribal leader Ahmed Abu Risha is also reportedly preparing an electoral push aligned with Taqaddum-backed platforms.
Azm, under the leadership of Muthanna al-Samarrai, is now regarded as the most extensive Sunni alliance. It includes several prominent political veterans such as former Parliament Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, former Deputy Prime Minister Rafi al-Issawi, and ideological affiliates like the Justice and Benevolence Movement (Harakat al-Adl wal-Ihsan). The coalition aims to present itself as a centrist bloc capable of bridging the Sunni political divide and reasserting influence in the national legislature.
Despite Al-Siyada's continued presence under al-Khanjar, the coalition has yet to mount a clear electoral strategy for November. A political source close to the group suggested that al-Khanjar remains skeptical that elections will proceed as planned, citing the risk of a broader political transition that could sideline the current electoral timeline altogether.
Nonetheless, insiders revealed signs of quiet coordination between Taqaddum and Al-Siyada, raising the possibility of a post-election alliance should mutual interests align. While no formal agreement has been reached, observers note that electoral pragmatism could override past tensions in pursuit of a stronger Sunni parliamentary bloc.
Baghdad And Beyond: Key Battlegrounds
Sunni parties are expected to compete fiercely in several strategic provinces, most notably Al-Anbar, Saladin, Nineveh, Diyala, and parts of Baghdad. The capital's mixed constituencies will be a crucial testing ground for the New Baghdad Alliance, which seeks to mobilize moderate urban Sunni voters disillusioned with established factions.
Mahmoud al-Mashhadani is betting on his stature to draw in support for a platform grounded in technocratic governance and Sunni-Shiite dialogue. His coalition includes former civil servants and professionals aiming to offer an alternative to the dominant tribal- and personality-based politics in Sunni areas.
Meanwhile, efforts are being made to incorporate younger voices and grassroots movements into campaign lists. While these initiatives remain limited in scope, they reflect a broader generational shift underway across Iraq's political spectrum.
Opportunity Amid Uncertainty
With less than seven months remaining before the scheduled vote, Iraq's Sunni political scene remains in flux. While Taqaddum and Azm appear most organized, the absence of a unified electoral front could weaken Sunni influence in a post-election government formation process. The legacy of mistrust, divergent leadership ambitions, and regional competition continues to challenge collective action.
Yet the potential for realignment remains. Observers suggest that electoral outcomes in Sunni areas will depend not only on intra-bloc rivalries but also on national political developments, including potential electoral law changes, federal court rulings, and the fate of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government.
In this fluid environment, Iraq's Sunni leaders face a familiar dilemma: to compete or to coalesce. The answer, and its timing, may well determine the bloc's future relevance in a country still struggling to balance representation, stability, and reform.