Texas flood deaths pass 50 with more bad weather expected

Miami Herald

2 days ago

More than 50 people have died and dozens of children are missing in Texas Hill Country after catastrophic flooding, leaving officials struggling to explain if they had done enough to warn people of the fast-rising waters.
At least 27 campers from Camp Mystic, an all-girls summer camp along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, remain unaccounted for, officials said at a briefing. They said they are maintaining that number even as more bodies were discovered. Of the dead in Kerr County, 28 were adults and 15 were children. At least eight others have died in nearby counties.
Authorities are warning the casualty count will climb as more rain is forecast, increasing the risk of further flash floods in the coming days. Officials declined to give a figure for the total number of people missing, in part because so many visitors came to the area to camp during the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
The flood took Texas officials by surprise. Thunderstorms, combined with the remnants of short-lived Tropical Storm Barry, produced much more rain than had been forecast.
"This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States. And we deal with floods on a regular basis," Kerr County Judge Robert Kelly told reporters. "We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever."
The Guadalupe River surged 26 feet in just 45 minutes, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said at a briefing Friday. The National Weather Service had predicted only three to six inches of rain in the area.
Gov. Greg Abbott expressed gratitude to the first responders who had poured into the area, and said the search for survivors continues. At a news conference earlier on Saturday, Abbott, flanked by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, thanked the federal government for providing assistance.
Abbott later said in a post on X that he visited Camp Mystic on Saturday. Mystic is one of several youth camps in the Hill Country that cater to middle- and upper-class families from Dallas, Houston and Austin who send kids for month-long getaways at places like Camp Longhorn and Camp Waldemar. Authorities were able to confirm that no other camps have missing children.
When the unexpected deluge hit Friday, there were about 750 children at Camp Mystic, which is about 85 miles (137 kilometers) northwest of San Antonio. The Hill Country sprawls across all or part of more than 20 counties in central Texas, with booming Austin and San Antonio on the region's eastern fringe driving a transformation from ranchland to suburbia.
The camp and "the river running beside it, were horrendously ravaged in ways unlike I've seen in any natural disaster," Abbott wrote. "The height the rushing water reached to the top of cabins was shocking. We won't stop until we find every girl who was in those cabins."
President Donald Trump said in a social media post that federal officials are working with state and local counterparts.
"Our Brave First Responders are on site doing what they do best," Trump wrote. "GOD BLESS THE FAMILIES, AND GOD BLESS TEXAS!"
The National Weather Service warned of more extreme rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding in parts of the region, issuing flood watches and warnings in central Texas, including parts of Austin and San Antonio. The service also reported numerous water rescues.
Climate change has driven more extreme rainfall around the world. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, upping the odds of deluges like the one that struck Texas.
Scientists haven't yet examined these floods for the fingerprints of climate change. A rapid analysis by Colorado State University climatologist Russ Schumacher shows the six-hour rainfall totals made this a 1,000-year event - that is, it had less than a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year.
Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, said weather predictions underestimated the severity of the storms. "The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of the forecasts," Kidd said.
The weather service "is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County," according to an emailed statement late Saturday that included a timeline of its flood-hazard outlook and warnings.
Noem said federal officials will look at whether more warning could have been provided.
"For decades, for years, everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict, but also that the National Weather Service, over the years, at times, has done well, and at times we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification," she said.
Officials have rescued around 850 people, and are using helicopters, boats and drones to search for others in need of assistance, Abbott said. Many roads were washed out, limiting access to some areas.
At Camp Mystic, aging bunks with names of former campers carved in the rafters sat on a slope near the river. Some were washed away by the surging waters.
Its website was overloaded with visitors Saturday, according to an error message. Photos said to be of missing children spread on social media, but officials declined to release names of any of the missing.
President Lyndon Johnson's daughters spent several summers at Mystic among the live oak trees and cedar brush, and former first lady Laura Bush was a Mystic counselor in college, according to Texas Monthly.
Posts on a Facebook page called Kerrville Breaking News were filled with photos of people and pets said to be missing. One woman said she was trying to locate a 19-year-old counselor at Mystic.
"People need to know today will be a hard day," said Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring.
(Yi Wei Wong, Susanne Barton, Brian K. Sullivan and Adam Majendie contributed to this report.)
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