Don't believe the gumdrops and rainbows. The lottery was a disaster for the Wizards

New York Times

13-05-2025

CHICAGO — 'Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?'
Gallows humor seems like the only salve right now, after the Washington Wizards absorbed the most brutal gut punch the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery possibly could have unleashed on them Monday night. After a regular season overloaded with losses, with the hoped-for payoff a chance to draft Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper, the Wizards learned that they are slotted to draft sixth overall.
Advertisement
This was like absorbing a roundhouse punch from Mike Tyson during Tyson's prime.
Or a blind-side sack by Lawrence Taylor.
Or, in basketball terms, going up for a dunk and getting undercut from below.
Wizards officials, who had prepared for this worst-case scenario but had hoped for the best, put on a brave face in the immediate aftermath. General manager Will Dawkins put a positive spin on things.
'The lottery is a game of chance,' Dawkins said. 'As long as you know that's what it is, you feel pretty calm going through it. Obviously, you want to win every time you have something, but we had nothing going into today and landed with six.
'So for me, I feel pretty good about it.'
Monumental Basketball president Michael Winger and Dawkins started the Wizards' rebuild in 2023, and they've always known they will need some luck along the way. Winning the first pick and adding Flagg, one of the best one-and-done prospects in recent history, would have left them ecstatic. They also would have been thrilled to exit the lottery with the second pick, which they could have used to draft Rutgers guard Harper. Adding either Flagg or Harper almost certainly would have made Washington's road ahead infinitely easier and quicker.
Now, it's more apparent than ever that Winger, Dawkins and their team of executives, scouts and coaches will need to make more of their own luck. One of the players they drafted or obtained through a trade over the previous two years — Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George and AJ Johnson — will need to hit; all five of those youngsters have shown some degree of potential, but none of them have proven yet that they will develop into stars.
The Wizards' management team can take solace from the example of the Indiana Pacers, who hold a 3-1 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in their second-round series. The Pacers don't have a single player on their roster who was picked in the top five of any draft. Instead, the president of basketball operations, Kevin Pritchard, brought aboard his best player, guard Tyrese Haliburton (himself the 12th pick in 2020), via a multi-player trade.
Advertisement
Under Winger and Dawkins, the Wizards have been ultra-aggressive on draft night, moving up one spot in 2023 to snag Coulibaly and trading Deni Avdija last year to acquire the draft rights to Carrington, a 2029 first-round pick, a future second-round pick and veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon.
This year, in addition to the No. 6 pick, Washington also holds the No. 18 pick. Asked if he and his colleagues in the front office will consider attempting to trade up, Dawkins answered: 'I think in every draft we always try to find the best player and then try to find a way to go get him, someone that's going to fit into our walls and have every attribute that we're looking for.
'So, for us, we've never been stagnant in any draft. I know it's only been two so far, but we'll look to … do whatever's best for the organization. But we're very comfortable staying where we're at.'
Dawkins may have been spouting gumdrops and rainbows when he said the Wizards are 'very comfortable staying' at No. 6. I'm skeptical.
As painful as it was not to win the first or second pick, it's now important to at least consider the potential long-term ramifications.
The 2026 draft class is said to be deeper at the top than this year's class is at the top. Now that the Wizards have (likely) come up empty on the opportunity to draft a star this year, will Winger and Dawkins prioritize bottoming out once again for the upcoming season? Some degree of tanking for the upcoming season was always likely because the Wizards will have to convey their 2026 first-round pick to the New York Knicks if it falls outside the top eight in the draft. But now that Flagg and Harper are off the board this year, will Washington go all in to maximize its chances to draft the likes of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cam Boozer 13 months from now?
Advertisement
And if the Wizards decide to race to the bottom in the year ahead, does that mean they're likely this offseason to try to trade veteran Khris Middleton, assuming he exercises his player option for 2025-26, and/or veteran Marcus Smart, who has one year remaining on his contract?
These questions were not posed directly to Dawkins during his brief question-and-answer session after the lottery. But one would think these hypotheticals at least have been pondered internally, given how receiving the fifth pick or the sixth pick were the two most likely single outcomes. Winger and Dawkins have well-earned reputations for thinking everything through.
Asked if Monday night's result pushed back the Wizards' timeline to contend, Dawkins answered unequivocally: 'Not at all,' adding that the team will 'continue to build through the draft and be strategic.'
Dawkins also said the Wizards remain in 'the beginning phases' of their rebuild.
That seems clear now. The top pick or second pick would've sped up the rebuild. But falling to sixth likely slowed it down.
Unless Winger and Dawkins can generate their own luck.