Welsh Labour falls to third in poll as voters say 'they haven't got a clue'
A new poll has shown Labour could fall to third in the Welsh Parliament with Plaid Cymru taking the most seats and Reform UK in second place. The Conservatives would fall to fourth
(Image: PA )
A new major poll suggests that Labour is heading towards its poorest performance in the history of devolution, potentially dropping to third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in the next Welsh Parliament elections. Wales Online readers have been debating the issue in our comments section.
Released on the eve of the Senedd election anniversary, which will occur on 7 May 2026, the Barn Cymru poll by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University indicates a grim forecast for Labour, with their predicted share at just 18%, trailing behind Plaid Cymru's 30% and Reform UK's 25%.
Should these figures translate into actual votes, Plaid Cymru would emerge as the largest party with an estimated 35 seats, while Reform UK could secure around 30 seats. Labour would be left with 19 seats, and the Conservatives, who are currently the second-largest party, would fall to fourth place with nine seats. The Lib Dems are expected to gain three seats.
The data reflects a shift in support away from Labour towards Reform UK and other left-wing parties, highlighting a general dissatisfaction with both the UK and Welsh governments. It also reveals that traditional Labour voters may opt for Plaid Cymru during Senedd elections.
Reacting to the poll results, First Minister Eluned Morgan described them as a "serious wake up call" for her party. She emphasised the gravity of the situation, saying, "That is a wake up call if ever we've seen one. It is a serious challenge for us. It's a serious challenge for UK Labour and I think it means that we all need to think very seriously about delivery on the things that matter to the people of Wales."
Dr Larner of Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre described recent polling as a "substantial shift" from what has been seen previously. He noted that while polls are only snapshots, they do indicate a trend across the UK.
Article continues below
Commenter Felix core says: 'We do not need an English nationalist party, Reform, in charge of the WELSH Senedd.'
Busa1 thinks: 'The Welsh Labour Party has virtually destroyed Wales during the years since being put in power, all they seem to care about is getting rid of all industry, planting trees and wasting our money on the huge white elephant of Cardiff airport.'
Dm68 agrees: 'Labour 'have to deliver on the things that matter to the people of Wales'. Trouble is, it is blindingly obvious to everyone that they haven't got a clue what the people of Wales want!'
EUandMe thinks: 'I'll vote for any party that allows me to choose a candidate rather than a party. And if the party also promises to abolish the extra waste in the Senedd then that would be a bonus.'
Deankb states: 'I fully expect Labour to have a terrible election in Wales. For far too long, they've taken the electorate for granted. Their decision to cease all road building comes from a party that obviously doesn't commute to work very often. Having said that, I would never, ever vote for Farage. Brexit has been a disaster for the UK, despite Nige telling us we'll be free of the EU & will be drowning in all the extra cash coming our way. He has no plan for the NHS, or education, or anything.'
Dm68 pleads: 'For goodness sake don't vote for Plaid. They are Labour in disguise and have shored them up on numerous occasions including the disastrous 20mph.'
Jeff2509 replies: '20mph is working to save lives and money. How is that disastrous?'
Alex Peters asks: 'If Labour cared about saving lives, why did they take the Winter Fuel Allowance off pensioners?'
Gar880 retorts: 'They made it means tested rather than universal. Is there a conversation to be had about the threshold to qualify? I believe so. Also that wasn't Welsh Labour that brought in that specific policy. You don't even know what you're raging against.'
1anj thinks: 'Change is great news. Just what the country needs.'
Ironside states: 'I'll be staying home come the next WAE. None of them are worth voting for. None of them will do anything to improve Wales. They will all say they'll do this and that just to get your vote but will never deliver. I've been around long enough to realise what they say and what they are two different things.'
Ethel the Frog writes: 'We need a serious look at independence.'
PJ372 disagrees: 'Independence would absolutely ruin us, we have no currency of our own, no industry, no army or defence, the list goes on.'
Diane1711 points out: 'Don't forget, we had over a decade of Tory ruling and all the money has gone to those who didn't need any more in the first place! They made a mess of all of it, including the NHS and, unfortunately, it's going to take Labour a long time to put things right.'
How do you think Wales will vote at the next elections? What do you see as the future for Wales? Have your say in our comments section.
Article continues below
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
BBC News
an hour ago
- BBC News
Free school swimming lessons election pledge by Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru has promised to make sure that all primary school children in Wales are given free swimming lessons if it wins next year's Senedd policy would provide 20 "swimming and water safety" lessons for children in years four and said the pledge would cost £4.4m a national governing body for Welsh swimming, Swim Wales, said that "fewer than 35%" of Welsh children aged seven to 11 are able to swim 25 metres unaided. According to Swim Wales, parents should already "expect their child to attend school swimming at some point during primary school".However, the "exact opportunities" can vary depending on the local council and each individual school, the organisation evidence to a Senedd committee in 2023, the chief executive of Swim Wales, Fergus Feeney, said that only 50% of the country's 1,600 plus primary schools took part in swimming, as he warned the activity risks being limited to "white middle class children".Plaid says that a lack of funding limits what primary schools are able to offer and so the party would set money aside specifically for school swimming Cymru's culture, media and leisure spokeswoman Heledd Fychan said the party's "fully-costed" policy would "teach every single child the skills they need to enjoy spending time in and by the water safely"."By giving children the opportunity to learn to swim, we will also actively encourage children to be healthier – which is all a part of our commitment to a new and transformative agenda for public health in Wales," she added. According to the National Water Safety Forum, there were 18 water-related deaths in Wales in 2024 and the rate of accidental drowning in Wales is almost double that of the UK as a whole."Teaching our young people how to swim and be safe in and around water is a necessity, not a nice-to-have," Fychan Feeney said he "welcomed" the policy."Without urgent action, tens of thousands of Welsh children every year could leave primary school unable to stay safe in, on, or around water," he said."By having a universal school swimming offer, we can ensure that Welsh children from all backgrounds have the same opportunity to acquire a life skill, to develop their confidence and begin their journey of lifelong physical activity."This would mean that Wales would be the first home nation to have a national programme of this significance in place."Earlier this year, the Senedd's culture committee called on the government to "develop a school swimming strategy to ensure that children leaving primary school have the ability to swim".Responding at the time, the minister for culture Jack Sargeant said he agreed with "the intention of the recommendation", but added "we need to be mindful of the financial pressure the recommendation would imply for schools in the current difficult financial circumstances"."The statutory guidance within the Curriculum for Wales, which all schools must consider, includes learners engaging in a range of physical activity, including within water," he added.
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
Top detective Colin Sutton who caught serial killer Levi Bellfield and Night Stalker rapist becomes police and crime adviser to Reform UK
A detective who caught some of Britain's worst rapists and murderers has joined Nigel Farage 's mission to clean up 'lawless Britain', the Mail can reveal. Colin Sutton, who led the hunt for serial killer Levi Bellfield and 'Night Stalker' rapist Delroy Grant, has been appointed Reform UK's first police and crime adviser. The former detective chief inspector will develop the party's pledge to halve crime in five years by hiring 30,000 extra police and investigating every reported offence. Leader Mr Farage said: 'Colin Sutton will be a huge asset to Reform UK.' In an interview with the Mail, Mr Sutton - who was played by Martin Clunes in the TV drama Manhunt, about the investigations into Bellfield and Grant - set out more of the measures he believes will clean up Britain's streets, restore public trust in police and make joining the force a more attractive career. He would give all frontline officers Tasers, reopen 300 mothballed police stations, and stop police investigating online spats. Mr Sutton, 64, said: 'Absolute respect to the young men and women who serve their communities and do the job, but do they actually do it because they want to be policing Twitter, or because they want to catch burglars and rapists and robbers?' He said 'a police station with a blue lamp' would be a reassuring sight for people walking in boarded-up town centres at night. He said he would even consider scrapping some of the laws against online abuse, adding: 'I don't mean hate or incitement, but people who are abused, let's make it like a watered-down version of defamation, then you can sue in the civil court. 'Don't give them legal aid and see how many feelings are hurt then. 'I accept that persistent and horrible abuse on social media can be very distressing and cause real problems psychologically. 'There's got to be better ways of dealing with it than sending half a dozen officers round.' Mr Farage said he wanted 'big, strapping' officers, but Mr Sutton said the best two police officers he ever worked with were women, and that at one stage 14 out of the 30 detectives in his murder squad were female. Mr Sutton joined the Tory Party as a teenager in Enfield, north London, but like all new recruits he was required to cease political activism when he joined the Met. He said he and many fellow officers would never forgive the Tories for the cuts imposed by Theresa May when she was home secretary, saying she and former prime minister David Cameron's government did 'more harm to policing than anybody ever'. He claims some chief constables would 'breathe a sigh of relief' under a Reform government. Mr Sutton joined Reform when Mr Farage returned to lead the party at last year's general election. He said: 'It's not about power, it's not about status or anything like that - it's about actually making a difference.'
The Sun
an hour ago
- The Sun
The writing's on the billboard, PM — nothing works and Labour isn't listening
IT is one of the most iconic images in modern political campaigning — and it could soon be back to haunt Sir Keir Starmer. Giant billboards showing a long dole queue snaking out of a Job Centre with the slogan 'Labour isn't working' captured the nation's attention nearly half a century ago. 3 3 Back before Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, it was used to depict rising unemployment. But today the line could illustrate a myriad of problems engulfing the government. The endless stream of illegal migrants arriving on small boats, for instance. 'Petty' criminals waiting outside stores to begin organised shoplifting sprees. The 6.2million patients on NHS waiting lists or the 1.3million families in England in the queue for social housing. Mass migration's strain on public services is clear for all to see. But in the past few days, people have drawn a more alarming conclusion — that illegal migration and rising crime are linked. This has created a toxic mix of anger, frustration and fear which triggered a series of demos. Women say they no longer feel safe and there is a deepening sense of unease about the large numbers of undocumented young men being moved into local hotels. France claims migrants crossing the Channel on small boats see Britain as an 'El Dorado' — but it's become Hell Dorado for many living here. Growing suspicion Convicts are freed early from overcrowded jails, 90 per cent of bike thefts go unsolved, and shoplifting is up 20 per cent in a year to a 20-year high. Retailers say this is because police refuse to investigate theft of items worth less than £200. That's probably because they are too busy combing through our social media accounts looking for 'hate crimes'. All this, along with the whiff of cannabis on almost every street corner, has led many people to conclude that Britain has become lawless. It is truly staggering that our Prime Minister — a former public prosecutor who prides himself on the rule of law — is presiding over this. Discontent is being fuelled by the growing suspicion that we are importing crime. Migrants staying in taxpayer-funded hotels have joined organised shoplifting gangs which have stolen thousands of pounds worth of designer clothes from top stores. Fury came to a head after an Ethiopian asylum seeker staying at the Bell Hotel in Epping, Essex, was charged with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old girl. He has denied the offence. Today, The Sun reveals that four in ten people charged over sex attacks in London in the past seven years are foreign nationals. Ministry of Justice figures show Afghans and Eritreans — among the top nationalities arriving by boat — were at least 20 times more likely to account for sexual offence convictions than Brits. Taxpayers footing the £5.7million-a-day bill for migrant hotels face a double whammy when lawyers use legal aid to block the deportation of foreign offenders. It's not just that Labour isn't working. Nothing works and Labour isn't listening A Lebanese man accused of murdering his beauty queen wife, who entered Britain on a small boat, was jailed for nine months for attempting to arrive without valid documents last week. But when he completes his sentence, he is unlikely to be deported as human rights laws will forbid his return home where he could face execution. The public's sense of injustice is magnified when they stage a peaceful protest and hear MPs branding them hard-right agitators. Or when they see cops escorting far-left counter demonstrators to the same migrant hotel. Yet the Government's response to the protests is to set up a police team to monitor social media for anti-migrant comments. People are beginning to make a link between the undesirables coming into Britain unchecked and rising crime Nigel Farage What is different about these demos — and should be ringing alarm bells in Downing Street — is that they are being attended mostly by mums, who are genuinely worried about their own and their children's safety. This is the silent majority who have had enough and think it is time to speak out. Nigel Farage has been quick to spot this simmering resentment and has launched a six-week campaign to highlight rising crime. The Reform UK leader declared: 'People are beginning to make a link between the undesirables coming into Britain unchecked and rising crime. There is also a mounting sense of anger that the establishment is always trying to stop us from having a reasonable debate.' Politics is broken He has promised to spend £17billion on new prisons built on military bases, hire 30,000 extra police and send murderers and paedophiles to serve their sentences in El Salvador. Labour scoffs it is an uncosted plan drawn up on the back of one of Farage's fag packets — but their hoots of derision won't convince those mums protesting outside migrant hotels. They've endured 14 years of Tory rule, and after less than 14 months of Labour have concluded that politics is broken. It's not just that Labour isn't working. Nothing works and Labour isn't listening. Farage now thinks women could win him the next election. Most people joining his bandwagon in the past few days have been female. It was 58 per cent men and 42 per cent women at the general election but now it's a 50-50 split, he says. This is one reason why his party has topped the last 65 opinion polls. The other is a breakdown in trust among voters. They have lost faith in the police. And they feel betrayed by politicians who they perceive as closing down any debate on their concerns and putting the rights of illegal migrants ahead of hard-working Brits. The social contract is in danger of breaking down as all they get in return for paying record taxes is platitudes and promises. Successive governments vowed to 'take back control', 'stop the boats' and 'smash the gangs'. The former human rights lawyer in No10 may not have his heart in tackling the migrant crisis. But he knows if he doesn't, the next line of people he sees will be those queuing up to vote him out of office. THE nanny state is throwing its protective arm around even more aspects of our daily lives. It now offers advice that goes far beyond the familiar 'mind the gap'. Walking through a London rail terminal the other day, I was dazzled by three video screens urging me and my fellow travellers to 'remember to keep drinking water in the hot weather'. A few steps further on another message cautioned: 'Please watch your step. The floor may be wet'. It was probably caused by panicking passengers rushing to rehydrate. While another flashing sign advised those with heavy luggage to use the lifts instead of struggling up and down stairs. Who'd have thought of that? Well, I've got some advice for Network Rail. See it. Say it. Stop it.
