With the clock ticking on Kyle Tucker in Chicago, the Cubs can't go halfway at the deadline

New York Times

5 days ago

The sense of urgency for the Chicago Cubs does not simply stem from the prospect of right fielder Kyle Tucker leaving after one year. The Cubs could lose five more important players to the open market after 2026, making an aggressive push at this year's trade deadline all the more imperative.
The potential members of the free-agent class of 2026-27 are left fielder Ian Happ, designated hitter Seiya Suzuki, second baseman Nico Hoerner, right-hander Jameson Taillon and left-hander Matt Boyd. That group, combined with Tucker, accounted for 37 percent of the team's fWAR entering Tuesday. And while the Cubs might retain some of those players, they are unlikely to keep all of them, Tucker in particular.
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Their situation is not now or never, not with the emergence of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong giving the 2026 roster a formidable look even if Tucker departs. But ownership's reluctance to sign players long-term, coupled with the possibility of a work stoppage in 2027, adds to the perception of a shrinking window. Or, to use a more dire analogy, walls closing in.
The Cubs' biggest need, after losing left-hander Justin Steele to season-ending elbow surgery and righty Javier Assad to a strained left oblique, is a pitcher who could start a postseason game. That type of pitcher almost certainly will be in scant supply at the deadline. But the Cubs, according to sources briefed on their plans, already are canvassing the market, making inquiries on Miami Marlins right-handers Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, among many others.
Alcantara, owed the balance of his $17 million salary this season and $17 million next season with a $21 million club option for 2027, would require a significant payroll boost. Cabrera, earning $1.95 million with three more years of arbitration remaining, would be a better financial fit – no small consideration for a team that reduced its Opening Day payroll from $214 million in 2024 to $191 million in '25. But the additional club control would make the cost in prospects perhaps even higher.
The Marlins are certain to listen on both pitchers. A number of potential free-agent starters, from Arizona's Zac Gallen to Baltimore's Zach Eflin, also could become available. The Cubs might find one of them more palatable, considering the limited salary commitment and reduced cost in prospects. But this is not a time for the team to go halfway. Not if owner Tom Ricketts is serious about winning a World Series in one of the next two years.
Which, of course, is an open question. And with the Cubs' lead over the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central down to 2 1/2 games, it's becoming more pressing.
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Lefty Shota Imanaga, who has not pitched since May 4, is scheduled to return from a strained left hamstring Thursday. He would join a rotation that currently includes Taillon, Boyd, rookie Cade Horton and journeyman Colin Rea. The Cubs demoted inconsistent rookie right-hander Ben Brown on Tuesday. If another starter gets hurt, they will be stretched dangerously thin. And like every other contender, they also could use bullpen help.
Offensively, the Cubs entered Tuesday ranked second in the majors in runs per game, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers. They were 12th last season with essentially the same cast. Cody Bellinger filled the spot currently occupied by Tucker. Crow-Armstrong was not close to what he has become.
The addition of Tucker has been that transformational, producing ripple effects throughout the lineup. His value, like the value of all elite sluggers, goes beyond his numbers. But his price might exceed $500 million.
Even if Ricketts was willing to pay Tucker that much – another open question – would he be willing to increase the Cubs' payroll enough to build a strong team around him? The prospect of Tucker and Crow-Armstrong in the same lineup for the next five years should be enticing. First baseman Michael Busch, another dynamic left-handed hitter, is under club control for the next four. Adding to the appeal: Tucker is 28, Busch 27 and Crow-Armstrong 23.
The Cubs actually are positioned perfectly to sign Tucker. Their only player under contract beyond 2026 is shortstop Dansby Swanson, who is signed through '29. Of course, the reason their commitments are so low is because Ricketts seems resistant to the notion of paying a player in his decline years. Which, with Tucker, he almost certainly would need to do.
Replacing Tucker on the open market, though, also would be no bargain. The Cubs already struck out once on third baseman Alex Bregman, who is likely to opt out of his deal with the Boston Red Sox. With Busch at first, they are not an obvious fit for Pete Alonso, who is likely to opt out of his deal with the New York Mets. A reunion with designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, whom they non-tendered in 2020? That would be rich, in more ways than one.
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But first things first: the trade deadline, which is a little more than five weeks away.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, in the last year of his contract, need not prove more to earn an extension. His trade for Tucker was a winner, even if it cost the Cubs a budding star, Houston Astros right fielder Cam Smith. His acquisition of Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Báez at the 2021 deadline and PCA's subsequent development must now be viewed as a major coup. Hoyer also hit on a number of free agents – Suzuki, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd. And the Cubs are incorporating homegrown players like Horton, third baseman Matt Shaw and reliever Porter Hodge with varying success.
The deadline, though, will be a challenge. Many clubs find the allure of the expanded postseason intoxicating. The number of sellers and the quality of players available might not dramatically increase. A common thought among executives is that the San Francisco Giants' acquisition of Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox might be the biggest trade to take place.
If that's the case, the Cubs simply might need to do what they did to land Tucker, and overpay. Teams get only so many chances to play deep into the postseason. The Cubs have made the playoffs only three times since winning the 2016 World Series, and advanced past the wild-card round only once. But right now, they own the third-best record in the NL.
The clock is ticking, on Tucker for 2025 and the five potential free agents for 2026. As stirring as the Cubs' season has been, an underlying uncertainty threatens all they've accomplished. The fun might only last so long.
(Top photo of Seiya Suzuki and Kyle Tucker: Matt Dirksen / Chicago Cubs / Getty Images)