ASX Runners: Santa Fe, Energy World, Next Science and Loyal Metals
All-time highs on the back of weak global economic data and geopolitical instability don't seem like the strongest foundation for markets. Regardless, materials stacked on most of the Aussie index's gains as the copper price hit US$10,000 (A$15,200) per tonne for the first time this year.
The red metal has turned into one of 2025's hottest commodities plays, with huge global M&A and copper-gold raisings forecasting continued strength into the new financial year.
Dominoes was the market's most notable loser. Its share price dropped nearly 25 per cent, after its recently appointed revolutionary CEO and managing director resigned. The surprise 'see ya later' left the market reeling, asking the remaining board 'what the heck just happened?'.
Gold finished the financial year flat, as safe haven demand dissipated, ending a near six-month winning streak for the yellow metal. The precious metal remains at all-time high prices thanks to threats of United States President Donald Trump's returning Tariff War looming large for next week's market digestion.
This week's Bulls N' Bears Runners, like the broader ASX, was dominated by the materials sector. Taking out top spot was a microcap minnow vanadium explorer turned West African gold hopeful, which snapped up a huge project from a big brother goldie in the booming region.
Up 416% (3.1c – 16c)
This week's Runner of the week was snatched by Santa Fe Minerals, which blasted off on Thursday after unveiling its acquisition of the Eburnea gold project in Côte d'Ivoire from Turaco Gold.
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Daily Telegraph
2 hours ago
- Daily Telegraph
Buy, hold or sell CBA? The decision's not simple
Don't miss out on the headlines from Stockhead. Followed categories will be added to My News. The CBA clearly is overvalued on conventional metrics, but selling is not as simple as that 'Expensive' stocks can remain so for months – or even years The CBA's worthy peers could be cheaper alternatives Happy New Financial Year (NFY) – a time of quiet reflection on the next fiscal stanza between scrambling for receipts to justify Netflix as a tax deduction. As part of their soul searching, investors may resolve to take profits on shares that have done well. Like the New Year's resolution to drink only on weekends rather than days ending with a 'y', NFY intentions dissipate just as quickly. But there's one decision that won't go away – and its got nothing to do with joining a gym. Should they sell their shares in the Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) after last financial year's shock 48% share romp? With the stock down about 5% over the last week, some investors already have lightened up on the bank, rather than with the barbells. Trapped in a 'virtuous cycle' A chorus of expert voices has decried the CBA is chronically overvalued: mainly the fund managers who sold too soon and trashed their 2024-25 performance. In summary, the world's most expensive bank is such because overseas institutions like Australia. The CBA – also the biggest ASX stock- is the obvious proxy for our great nation. As more instos pile into the CBA, there's more buying because of the need to maintain index weighting. The CBA now accounts for 10% of the ASX200 index. This is all very well until a typical bank-like event – such a housing downturn – disrupts this self-reinforcing loop. In the words of Atlas Funds Management's Hugh Dive: 'it's a virtuous cycle until it isn't'. One pillar, three 'stumps' CBA's $300 billion valuation makes its Four Pillars peers look more like three 'stumps'. On Morgan Stanley's numbers, the CBA trades on an estimated current-year earnings multiple of 29 times, compared with 20.4 times for its Westpac (ASX:WBC) , National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ) . This compares with a sector average multiple of 12.5 times over the last decade. Of course, most retail investors hold the banks for their franked dividends. On this note, the banks trade on an average forward yield of 4.8%, or 5.8% grossed up (accounting for the franking). The CBA's yield has declined to a mediocre 2.7% (3.9% grossed up). Put in context, a risk-free 12-month CBA term deposit pays 4%. The case for buying To be fair, the CBA has kept its nose out of trouble – and inarguably it's one of the world's best managed banks. Our 'stronger for longer' housing boom sure does help. 'Expensive' shares can remain so for years. This is evidenced by this year's record-breaking run of radiology imaging play ProMedicus (ASX:PME) . Or, globally, AI hero Nvidia. So is the next stop for CBA is $200 per share. Or why not $300? The CBA's valuation could be supported if the Goldilocks economy thesis pans out, with tempering inflation enabling more rate cuts (as is expected). Meanwhile, the other three 'Four Pillars' have taken in turns to court disaster and controversy or lose share in the key home mortgage market. Banking on better returns elsewhere That said, the 'three stumps' are excellent banks by global standards. They also have a solid track record of recovering from despite their whoopsies. For those seeking consistent income, they work on a September balance date so pay their divs at a different time to the June-balancing CBA. Still unconvinced? The non-Big Four banks could be a credible alternative. That said, they may lack the relative prudential strength and have a higher cost of capital. Investors in the out-of-sorts Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) enjoyed a 40% bounce share bounce last financial year, secondly only to the CBA's 49% surge. MyState (ASX:MYS) is an exposure to the gentrifying Tasmania market, as well as the Rockhampton and Bundaberg regions. A pure-play business lender Judo Capital Holdings (ASX:JDO) enjoys higher interest margins than on a mortgage, but its risk managers need to be on top of their game. So far, they have been. PNG bank Kina Securities (ASX:KSL) trades on a PE of eight times and an 8% yield. Perversely for the impoverished island nation, Kina has capital adequacy that would put the Big Four to shame. This story does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decision. Originally published as Criterion: Buy, hold or sell CBA? Investors face their NFY resolution
The Advertiser
4 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Stocks dip, dollar slumps as Trump deal deadline looms
Stocks have slipped despite record highs for Wall Street overnight as US President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals looms. The dollar retraced some of Thursday's gains with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week as traders considered the impact of the sweeping spending bill that Trump is expected to sign into law later in the day. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.6 per cent on Friday, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 per cent on brandy from the European Union starting July 5. US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.5 per cent following a 0.8 per cent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh record closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Trump said Washington would start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they would face on exports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply. Investors were "now just waiting for July 9", said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market's lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea. At the same time, Thursday's jobs data showed "the US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better" from here, Sycamore said. Investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session. Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump's signature, 869-page bill, which would add $US3.4 trillion ($A5.2 trillion) to the nation's $US36.2 trillion debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Trump said he expected "a couple" more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India was close. However, agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appear to have broken down. The US dollar rallied overnight, taking it up as much as 0.7 per cent versus a basket of major peers after the robust payrolls data saw traders take any expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July off the table. It ended Thursday with a 0.4 per cent rise. On Friday, the US currency gave back a little of those gains, slumping 0.4 per cent to 144.31 yen and sliding 0.2 per cent to 0.7936 Swiss franc. The euro added 0.2 per cent to $US1.1773, while sterling held steady at $US1.3662. The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 per cent while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 per cent. Gold firmed 0.4 per cent to $US3,339 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US's fiscal position and tariffs. Brent crude futures fell seven cents to $US68.73 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was last seen flat at $US67.02. Stocks have slipped despite record highs for Wall Street overnight as US President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals looms. The dollar retraced some of Thursday's gains with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week as traders considered the impact of the sweeping spending bill that Trump is expected to sign into law later in the day. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.6 per cent on Friday, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 per cent on brandy from the European Union starting July 5. US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.5 per cent following a 0.8 per cent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh record closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Trump said Washington would start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they would face on exports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply. Investors were "now just waiting for July 9", said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market's lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea. At the same time, Thursday's jobs data showed "the US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better" from here, Sycamore said. Investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session. Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump's signature, 869-page bill, which would add $US3.4 trillion ($A5.2 trillion) to the nation's $US36.2 trillion debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Trump said he expected "a couple" more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India was close. However, agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appear to have broken down. The US dollar rallied overnight, taking it up as much as 0.7 per cent versus a basket of major peers after the robust payrolls data saw traders take any expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July off the table. It ended Thursday with a 0.4 per cent rise. On Friday, the US currency gave back a little of those gains, slumping 0.4 per cent to 144.31 yen and sliding 0.2 per cent to 0.7936 Swiss franc. The euro added 0.2 per cent to $US1.1773, while sterling held steady at $US1.3662. The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 per cent while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 per cent. Gold firmed 0.4 per cent to $US3,339 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US's fiscal position and tariffs. Brent crude futures fell seven cents to $US68.73 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was last seen flat at $US67.02. Stocks have slipped despite record highs for Wall Street overnight as US President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals looms. The dollar retraced some of Thursday's gains with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week as traders considered the impact of the sweeping spending bill that Trump is expected to sign into law later in the day. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.6 per cent on Friday, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 per cent on brandy from the European Union starting July 5. US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.5 per cent following a 0.8 per cent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh record closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Trump said Washington would start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they would face on exports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply. Investors were "now just waiting for July 9", said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market's lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea. At the same time, Thursday's jobs data showed "the US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better" from here, Sycamore said. Investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session. Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump's signature, 869-page bill, which would add $US3.4 trillion ($A5.2 trillion) to the nation's $US36.2 trillion debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Trump said he expected "a couple" more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India was close. However, agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appear to have broken down. The US dollar rallied overnight, taking it up as much as 0.7 per cent versus a basket of major peers after the robust payrolls data saw traders take any expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July off the table. It ended Thursday with a 0.4 per cent rise. On Friday, the US currency gave back a little of those gains, slumping 0.4 per cent to 144.31 yen and sliding 0.2 per cent to 0.7936 Swiss franc. The euro added 0.2 per cent to $US1.1773, while sterling held steady at $US1.3662. The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 per cent while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 per cent. Gold firmed 0.4 per cent to $US3,339 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US's fiscal position and tariffs. Brent crude futures fell seven cents to $US68.73 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was last seen flat at $US67.02. Stocks have slipped despite record highs for Wall Street overnight as US President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals looms. The dollar retraced some of Thursday's gains with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week as traders considered the impact of the sweeping spending bill that Trump is expected to sign into law later in the day. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.6 per cent on Friday, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 per cent on brandy from the European Union starting July 5. US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.5 per cent following a 0.8 per cent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh record closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Trump said Washington would start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they would face on exports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply. Investors were "now just waiting for July 9", said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market's lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea. At the same time, Thursday's jobs data showed "the US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better" from here, Sycamore said. Investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session. Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump's signature, 869-page bill, which would add $US3.4 trillion ($A5.2 trillion) to the nation's $US36.2 trillion debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Trump said he expected "a couple" more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India was close. However, agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appear to have broken down. The US dollar rallied overnight, taking it up as much as 0.7 per cent versus a basket of major peers after the robust payrolls data saw traders take any expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July off the table. It ended Thursday with a 0.4 per cent rise. On Friday, the US currency gave back a little of those gains, slumping 0.4 per cent to 144.31 yen and sliding 0.2 per cent to 0.7936 Swiss franc. The euro added 0.2 per cent to $US1.1773, while sterling held steady at $US1.3662. The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 per cent while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 per cent. Gold firmed 0.4 per cent to $US3,339 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US's fiscal position and tariffs. Brent crude futures fell seven cents to $US68.73 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was last seen flat at $US67.02.
News.com.au
6 hours ago
- News.com.au
Criterion: Buy, hold or sell CBA? Investors face their NFY resolution
The CBA clearly is overvalued on conventional metrics, but selling is not as simple as that 'Expensive' stocks can remain so for months – or even years The CBA's worthy peers could be cheaper alternatives Happy New Financial Year (NFY) – a time of quiet reflection on the next fiscal stanza between scrambling for receipts to justify Netflix as a tax deduction. As part of their soul searching, investors may resolve to take profits on shares that have done well. Like the New Year's resolution to drink only on weekends rather than days ending with a 'y', NFY intentions dissipate just as quickly. But there's one decision that won't go away – and its got nothing to do with joining a gym. Should they sell their shares in the Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) after last financial year's shock 48% share romp? With the stock down about 5% over the last week, some investors already have lightened up on the bank, rather than with the barbells. Trapped in a 'virtuous cycle' A chorus of expert voices has decried the CBA is chronically overvalued: mainly the fund managers who sold too soon and trashed their 2024-25 performance. In summary, the world's most expensive bank is such because overseas institutions like Australia. The CBA – also the biggest ASX stock- is the obvious proxy for our great nation. As more instos pile into the CBA, there's more buying because of the need to maintain index weighting. The CBA now accounts for 10% of the ASX200 index. This is all very well until a typical bank-like event – such a housing downturn – disrupts this self-reinforcing loop. In the words of Atlas Funds Management's Hugh Dive: 'it's a virtuous cycle until it isn't'. One pillar, three 'stumps' CBA's $300 billion valuation makes its Four Pillars peers look more like three 'stumps'. On Morgan Stanley's numbers, the CBA trades on an estimated current-year earnings multiple of 29 times, compared with 20.4 times for its Westpac (ASX:WBC), National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ). This compares with a sector average multiple of 12.5 times over the last decade. Of course, most retail investors hold the banks for their franked dividends. On this note, the banks trade on an average forward yield of 4.8%, or 5.8% grossed up (accounting for the franking). The CBA's yield has declined to a mediocre 2.7% (3.9% grossed up). Put in context, a risk-free 12-month CBA term deposit pays 4%. The case for buying To be fair, the CBA has kept its nose out of trouble – and inarguably it's one of the world's best managed banks. Our 'stronger for longer' housing boom sure does help. 'Expensive' shares can remain so for years. This is evidenced by this year's record-breaking run of radiology imaging play ProMedicus (ASX:PME). Or, globally, AI hero Nvidia. So is the next stop for CBA is $200 per share. Or why not $300? The CBA's valuation could be supported if the Goldilocks economy thesis pans out, with tempering inflation enabling more rate cuts (as is expected). Meanwhile, the other three 'Four Pillars' have taken in turns to court disaster and controversy or lose share in the key home mortgage market. Banking on better returns elsewhere That said, the 'three stumps' are excellent banks by global standards. They also have a solid track record of recovering from despite their whoopsies. For those seeking consistent income, they work on a September balance date so pay their divs at a different time to the June-balancing CBA. Still unconvinced? The non-Big Four banks could be a credible alternative. That said, they may lack the relative prudential strength and have a higher cost of capital. Investors in the out-of-sorts Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) enjoyed a 40% bounce share bounce last financial year, secondly only to the CBA's 49% surge. MyState (ASX:MYS) is an exposure to the gentrifying Tasmania market, as well as the Rockhampton and Bundaberg regions. A pure-play business lender Judo Capital Holdings (ASX:JDO) enjoys higher interest margins than on a mortgage, but its risk managers need to be on top of their game. So far, they have been. PNG bank Kina Securities (ASX:KSL) trades on a PE of eight times and an 8% yield. Perversely for the impoverished island nation, Kina has capital adequacy that would put the Big Four to shame.
