Oil prices sink after Israel confirms ceasefire with Iran announced by Trump
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 3% to trade below $66 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover near $68 per barrel.
Israel confirmed that it had agreed to a truce, after Trump announced the ceasefire and its timeline in a late-Monday post to social media. The president then announced overnight that the pause in the conflict had begun.
'THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!' Trump wrote on social media early on Tuesday.
Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed.
'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,' Trump wrote on social media.
'Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon.
Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows.
JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130.
"Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," wrote Natasha Kaneva on Monday morning.
JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates.
Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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